MacroMind matchup data: real ranked games, not opinions
Smolder vs Cassiopeia
How often does Smolder beat Cassiopeia in ADC?
Smolder into Cassiopeia in ADC: 47% observed win rate across 144 ranked games.
Global ranked sample: games from every region and every rank pooled together, not one server's stats. Data runs through patch 26.12; curves updated 2026-08-07.
By 15 minutes the median game has Smolder behind by 586 gold.
Smolder at 15:00
- Gold: -586
- CS: -12
- XP: -423
Typical gap to Cassiopeia, from 143 games that reached 15:00.
Does Smolder counter Cassiopeia?
No counter here: Smolder sits at 47% over 144 games. The swing lives in the spots below, so play the side you know better and chase the row that moves the number the most in this lane, then hold that lead through the first back.
Beating Cassiopeia: the Smolder game plan
A gold lead at 10:00 puts Smolder at 63% across 48 games. Flip the lead and Smolder falls to 40% across 96.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead in gold at 10:00 | 63% | 48 |
| Behind in gold at 10:00 | 40% | 96 |
| First blood | 46% | 54 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 59% | 41 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 65% | 40 |
Someone usually dies here around 4:53 in the median game, and level 6 lands near 7:39. Until your spike is online, respect the all-in.
Smolder's ADC build, with receipts
Into Cassiopeia specifically, Smolder finishes Essence Reaver first most often: 51.4% over 70 games of this matchup.
The most-finished Smolder core is Essence Reaver, Black Cleaver, Spear of Shojin: 58.1% across 14,752 games when all three got done. All matchups, patches 26.1-26.12.
Most games start Doran's Blade + Health Potion; the first finished item is usually Essence Reaver (68,290 games).
Skill plan: Smolder players max Q first and take Q at level 1.