MacroMind matchup data: real ranked games, not opinions
Nocturne vs Gragas
Nocturne vs Gragas in Jungle: who wins more often?
Across 265 ranked games in Jungle, Nocturne beats Gragas in 51% of them.
Global ranked sample: games from every region and every rank pooled together, not one server's stats. Data runs through patch 26.12; curves updated 2026-08-07.
By 15 minutes the median game has Nocturne ahead by 235 gold.
Nocturne at 15:00
- Gold: +235
- CS: +9
- XP: +276
Typical gap to Gragas, from 265 games that reached 15:00.
Does Nocturne counter Gragas?
Even on the count: Nocturne lands at 51% over 265 games. Neither pick wins the lane alone, so take the side you play better and use the rows below to see which early spots swing this one, then play your first ten minutes around them.
Your Nocturne game plan against Gragas
With a gold lead at 10:00, Nocturne wins 56% of 153 games in this matchup. Behind at the same mark, the rate drops to 45% over 112.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead in gold at 10:00 | 56% | 153 |
| Behind in gold at 10:00 | 45% | 112 |
| First blood | 52% | 178 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 55% | 108 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 55% | 188 |
| 0 deaths at 10:00 | 58% | 90 |
| 0 deaths at 15:00 | 65% | 43 |
In the median game here, the first death comes near 7:37 and level 6 lands around 6:55. Until your spike is online, treat the all-in window with respect.
Nocturne in Jungle: the items that actually get built
Into Gragas specifically, Nocturne finishes Experimental Hexplate first most often: 47.1% over 51 games of this matchup.
The most-finished Nocturne core is Experimental Hexplate, Stridebreaker, Black Cleaver: 55.2% across 4,609 games when all three got done. All matchups, patches 26.1-26.12.
Most games start Scorchclaw Pup + Health Potion; the first finished item is usually Experimental Hexplate (21,998 games).
Skill plan: Nocturne players max Q first and take Q at level 1.