MacroMind matchup data: real ranked games, not opinions
Gragas vs Nocturne
How often does Gragas beat Nocturne in Jungle?
Gragas into Nocturne in Jungle: 49% observed win rate across 265 ranked games.
Global ranked sample: games from every region and every rank pooled together, not one server's stats. Data runs through patch 26.12; curves updated 2026-08-07.
By 15 minutes the median game has Gragas behind by 235 gold.
Gragas at 15:00
- Gold: -235
- CS: -9
- XP: -276
Typical gap to Nocturne, from 265 games that reached 15:00.
Does Gragas counter Nocturne?
No counter here: Gragas sits at 49% over 265 games. The swing lives in the spots below, so play the side you know better and chase the row that moves the number the most in this lane, then hold that lead through the first back.
Beating Nocturne: the Gragas game plan
A gold lead at 10:00 puts Gragas at 55% across 112 games. Flip the lead and Gragas falls to 44% across 153.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead in gold at 10:00 | 55% | 112 |
| Behind in gold at 10:00 | 44% | 153 |
| First blood | 52% | 169 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 51% | 93 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 56% | 70 |
| 0 deaths at 10:00 | 57% | 81 |
Someone usually dies here around 7:08 in the median game, and level 6 lands near 7:18. Until your spike is online, respect the all-in.
Gragas's Jungle build, with receipts
Into Nocturne specifically, Gragas finishes Lich Bane first most often: 50.0% over 62 games of this matchup.
The most-finished Gragas core is Lich Bane, Shadowflame, Zhonya's Hourglass: 48.9% across 421 games when all three got done. All matchups, patches 26.1-26.12.
Most games start Gustwalker Hatchling + Health Potion; the first finished item is usually Lich Bane (2,260 games).
Skill plan: Gragas players max Q first and take W at level 1.