MacroMind matchup data: real ranked games, not opinions
Elise vs Nocturne
How often does Elise beat Nocturne in Jungle?
Elise into Nocturne in Jungle: 44% observed win rate across 960 ranked games.
Global ranked sample: games from every region and every rank pooled together, not one server's stats. Data runs through patch 26.12; curves updated 2026-08-07.
By 15 minutes the median game has Elise behind by 186 gold.
Elise at 15:00
- Gold: -186
- CS: -12
- XP: -361
Typical gap to Nocturne, from 957 games that reached 15:00.
Does Elise counter Nocturne?
The count says no. Nocturne holds 56% of 960 ranked Jungle games here. The lane is still winnable. Elise wins it back from the spots below, so learn which ones swing it before you lock in Elise against Nocturne, and play for those first.
Beating Nocturne: the Elise game plan
A gold lead at 10:00 puts Elise at 57% across 456 games. Flip the lead and Elise falls to 33% across 504.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead in gold at 10:00 | 57% | 456 |
| Behind in gold at 10:00 | 33% | 504 |
| First blood | 48% | 663 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 56% | 442 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 53% | 242 |
| 0 deaths at 10:00 | 53% | 272 |
| 0 deaths at 15:00 | 63% | 116 |
Someone usually dies here around 6:42 in the median game, and level 6 lands near 7:32. Until your spike is online, respect the all-in.
Elise's Jungle build, with receipts
Into Nocturne specifically, Elise finishes Stormsurge first most often: 42.5% over 285 games of this matchup.
The most-finished core in this exact matchup is Stormsurge, Shadowflame, Zhonya's Hourglass: 47.8% across 69 games.
The most-finished Elise core is Stormsurge, Shadowflame, Zhonya's Hourglass: 52.6% across 2,296 games when all three got done. All matchups, patches 26.1-26.12.
Most games start Scorchclaw Pup + Health Potion; the first finished item is usually Stormsurge (9,092 games).
Skill plan: Elise players max Q first and take W at level 1.