MacroMind matchup data: real ranked games, not opinions
Karthus vs Caitlyn
How often does Karthus beat Caitlyn in ADC?
Karthus into Caitlyn in ADC: 58% observed win rate across 468 ranked games.
Global ranked sample: games from every region and every rank pooled together, not one server's stats. Data runs through patch 26.12; curves updated 2026-08-07.
By 15 minutes the median game has Karthus ahead by 67 gold.
Karthus at 15:00
- Gold: +67
- CS: -1
- XP: +381
Typical gap to Caitlyn, from 465 games that reached 15:00.
Does Karthus counter Caitlyn?
The count says yes: across 468 ranked ADC games into Caitlyn, Karthus takes 58%. That edge is worth playing for. Check the rows below to see how much a gold lead at 10:00 adds, and what a bad start costs Karthus.
Beating Caitlyn: the Karthus game plan
A gold lead at 10:00 puts Karthus at 66% across 238 games. Flip the lead and Karthus falls to 49% across 230.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead in gold at 10:00 | 66% | 238 |
| Behind in gold at 10:00 | 49% | 230 |
| First blood | 61% | 201 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 66% | 219 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 68% | 204 |
| 0 deaths at 10:00 | 54% | 57 |
Someone usually dies here around 3:49 in the median game, and level 6 lands near 7:13. Until your spike is online, respect the all-in.
Karthus's ADC build, with receipts
Into Caitlyn specifically, Karthus finishes Blackfire Torch first most often: 55.7% over 246 games of this matchup.
The most-finished core in this exact matchup is Blackfire Torch, Shadowflame, Rabadon's Deathcap: 55.7% across 70 games.
The most-finished Karthus core is Blackfire Torch, Shadowflame, Rabadon's Deathcap: 58.3% across 949 games when all three got done. All matchups, patches 26.1-26.12.
Most games start Doran's Ring + Health Potion + Health Potion; the first finished item is usually Blackfire Torch (3,479 games).
Skill plan: Karthus players max Q first and take Q at level 1.