MacroMind matchup data — real ranked games, not opinions
Karthus vs Caitlyn
How often does Karthus beat Caitlyn in ADC?
Karthus into Caitlyn in ADC: 58% observed win rate across 468 ranked games. Counted from real matches, and every number here shows its sample size.
By 15 minutes the median game has Karthus ahead by 67 gold.
Does Karthus counter Caitlyn?
The numbers say yes: across 468 ranked ADC games into Caitlyn, Karthus takes 58% — past the noise band for this sample. Read from Caitlyn's side, the same games give the mirror rate, and every number here shows the games behind it.
Beating Caitlyn: the Karthus game plan
A 300-gold lead at 10:00 puts Karthus at 66% across 238 games. Flip the lead and Karthus falls to 49% across 230.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| 300 gold up at 10:00 | 66% | 238 |
| 300 gold down at 10:00 | 49% | 230 |
| First blood | 61% | 201 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 66% | 219 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 68% | 204 |
| 0 deaths at 10:00 | 54% | 57 |
Someone usually dies here around 3:49 in the median game, and level 6 lands near 7:13. Until your spike is online, respect the all-in.
Karthus's ADC build, with receipts
Into Caitlyn specifically, Karthus finishes Blackfire Torch first most often: 55.7% over 246 games of this matchup.
The most-finished core in this exact matchup is Blackfire Torch, Shadowflame, Rabadon's Deathcap: 55.7% across 70 games.
The most-finished Karthus core is Blackfire Torch, Shadowflame, Rabadon's Deathcap: 58.3% across 949 games when all three got done. All matchups, patches 16.1-16.12.
Most games start Doran's Ring + Health Potion + Health Potion; the first finished item is usually Blackfire Torch (3,479 games).
Skill plan: Karthus players max Q first and take Q at level 1.