MacroMind matchup data: real ranked games, not opinions
Cassiopeia vs Lucian
What is Cassiopeia's win rate vs Lucian?
In ADC, Cassiopeia wins 53% against Lucian across 171 observed ranked games.
Global ranked sample: games from every region and every rank pooled together, not one server's stats. Data runs through patch 26.12; curves updated 2026-08-07.
By 15 minutes the median game has Cassiopeia ahead by 90 gold.
Cassiopeia at 15:00
- Gold: +90
- CS: +1
- XP: +163
Typical gap to Lucian, from 168 games that reached 15:00.
Does Cassiopeia counter Lucian?
Too close to call. Cassiopeia sits at 53% over 171 games, so neither pick counters the other here. The lane goes to whoever wins the spots below, like the gold lead at 10:00 or staying alive until 15:00, so play for those and let the pick argument go.
How to beat Lucian as Cassiopeia
When Cassiopeia is ahead in gold at 10:00, this matchup runs 61% over 92 games; behind, it drops to 44% over 79.
| The spot | Win rate | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Ahead in gold at 10:00 | 61% | 92 |
| Behind in gold at 10:00 | 44% | 79 |
| First blood | 56% | 91 |
| +kills at 10:00 | 58% | 78 |
| +CS at 10:00 | 60% | 82 |
The median first death in this lane comes at 4:36; the level 6 spike lands around 7:36. Respect the all-in window until your spike is online.