{"matchups":[{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":116,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":116,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":116,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":116,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":64.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[45.5,53.5,105.0,101.0,183.0,198.0,244.0,170.0,396.0,478.5,479.0,880.0,796.0,1385.0,1173.0,1499.5,2358.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.2,"n_if_ahead_10":76,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2358,"desc":"Your spike: +2358g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":431,"value":412,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:11 (fast: 6:52)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Mel","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":348,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":348,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":348,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":348,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.5,"upper":60.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,-6.5,-45.0,-64.5,-99.0,-143.5,-171.0,-156.0,-178.0,-234.5,-163.0,-70.0,54.5,172.0,259.5,468.0,786.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.3,"n_if_ahead_10":150,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":786,"desc":"Your spike: +786g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Teemo","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.5,"upper":71.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.5,20.5,65.5,87.5,120.0,139.0,110.5,314.0,143.5,327.0,192.0,39.0,159.0,-427.0,-273.0,-157.5,928.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Varus","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1046,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1046,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1046,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1046,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.3,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,5.0,-24.5,-50.5,-66.5,-70.5,-15.5,-88.0,-60.0,-69.0,5.0,129.0,363.0,521.0,674.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":520,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":674,"desc":"Your spike: +674g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":462,"value":429,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:42 (fast: 7:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":4015,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":4015,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":4015,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":4015,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":10,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.7,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.7},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-3.0,-8.0,-8.0,-13.0,-14.0,-7.0,7.0,38.0,98.5,110.0,139.0,125.0,130.5,79.0,232.0,238.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":2080,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Yunara","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1919,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1919,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1919,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":67,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1919,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":9,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.9,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.0,9.0,23.0,36.0,26.0,34.0,39.0,46.0,70.0,69.0,66.0,74.0,131.5,223.0,296.5,421.0,258.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.3,"n_if_ahead_10":1015,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":421,"desc":"Your spike: +421g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":457,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:37 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Kalista","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":386,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":386,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":386,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":386,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.9,"upper":57.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-15.0,-10.0,-26.5,-83.0,-141.5,-224.5,-263.5,-262.0,-319.5,-362.0,-510.0,-484.0,-296.0,-189.5,-54.0,132.0,605.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":156,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":605,"desc":"Your spike: +605g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":459,"value":429,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:39 (fast: 7:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Sivir","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1310,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1310,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1310,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1310,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.0,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.5,-2.0,-7.0,-13.5,-27.5,-28.5,-18.0,29.0,49.5,63.0,119.0,146.0,254.0,435.0,579.0,886.5,972.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.4,"n_if_ahead_10":693,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":972,"desc":"Your spike: +972g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":457,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:37 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3081,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3081,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3081,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3081,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-14.0,-34.0,-38.0,-62.0,-86.0,-95.0,-76.0,-60.0,-22.0,15.0,46.0,210.5,347.0,490.0,765.0,994.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":1476,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":994,"desc":"Your spike: +994g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Corki","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":547,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":547,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":547,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":547,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-1.0,-14.0,-2.0,0.0,-14.0,11.0,35.0,50.0,145.5,3.0,73.0,34.0,155.5,376.5,601.0,1031.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.9,"n_if_ahead_10":293,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1031,"desc":"Your spike: +1031g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":83,"desc":"Winners average 83 CS at 10:00 (losers: 77)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":456,"value":426,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:36 (fast: 7:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Karthus","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":136,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":136,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":136,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":136,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.9,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,40.0,46.0,81.0,53.5,117.5,86.0,133.5,77.0,-120.0,13.5,280.5,364.0,458.0,652.0,856.0,1060.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1060,"desc":"Your spike: +1060g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":457,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:37 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Jhin","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3481,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3481,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3481,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3481,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":53.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-13.0,-28.0,-38.0,-46.0,-72.0,-88.0,-85.0,-73.0,-89.0,30.0,79.0,286.0,410.0,552.5,641.0,753.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.0,"n_if_ahead_10":1625,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":753,"desc":"Your spike: +753g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Samira","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1135,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1135,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1135,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1135,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":54.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,6.0,-32.0,-70.0,-107.0,-168.0,-234.0,-216.0,-256.0,-227.0,-255.0,-211.0,-27.0,-68.5,-90.5,-97.5,-344.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.9,"n_if_ahead_10":474,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-344,"desc":"Their spike: -344g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":81,"desc":"Winners average 81 CS at 10:00 (losers: 75)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":459,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:39 (fast: 7:08)"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":20,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.9,"upper":66.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.0,54.0,104.0,162.0,153.0,127.0,70.0,126.0,231.0,209.0,-8.0,141.0,-138.0,291.0,514.0,954.5,3701.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Xayah","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":929,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":929,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":929,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":929,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,9.0,0.0,-8.0,-38.0,-57.0,-70.0,-68.0,-55.0,-42.0,60.0,40.0,89.0,210.0,474.0,669.5,911.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":440,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":911,"desc":"Your spike: +911g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":455,"value":426,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:35 (fast: 7:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Swain","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":343,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":343,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":343,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":343,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":55.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[38.0,46.0,87.0,109.0,108.0,106.0,121.0,134.0,81.0,167.0,219.0,320.0,347.0,678.0,852.0,1043.0,1490.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.0,"n_if_ahead_10":189,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1490,"desc":"Your spike: +1490g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":457,"value":426,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:37 (fast: 7:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"MissFortune","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1984,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1984,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1984,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1984,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-16.0,-13.5,-15.0,-31.0,-27.0,-32.0,-15.5,-30.0,-59.5,-66.0,-56.0,49.0,155.0,60.0,106.0,-12.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":969,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":462,"value":431,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:42 (fast: 7:11)"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Draven","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":976,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":976,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":976,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":976,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.0,-54.0,-82.0,-141.5,-171.0,-252.0,-347.0,-426.0,-473.0,-695.0,-772.0,-747.5,-693.5,-659.0,-631.0,-581.0,-781.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.4,"n_if_ahead_10":326,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-781,"desc":"Their spike: -781g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":464,"value":430,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:44 (fast: 7:10)"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Ashe","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2602,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2602,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2602,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2602,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-1.0,16.0,32.0,36.5,34.0,66.0,121.0,165.0,274.0,365.5,395.0,565.0,877.0,1127.5,1449.0,1562.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":1480,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1562,"desc":"Your spike: +1562g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":429,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Jinx","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3175,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3175,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3175,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3175,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,27.0,40.0,48.0,47.0,72.0,111.0,133.0,200.5,271.0,322.0,478.5,642.0,834.0,959.0,950.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":1793,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":959,"desc":"Your spike: +959g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":453,"value":424,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:33 (fast: 7:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Caitlyn","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2734,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2734,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2734,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2734,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-38.0,-56.0,-71.0,-94.0,-124.5,-143.5,-119.0,-102.0,-144.5,-90.0,-64.0,110.0,223.0,375.5,552.0,649.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.4,"n_if_ahead_10":1252,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":649,"desc":"Your spike: +649g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":457,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:37 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Lucian","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2192,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2192,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2192,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2192,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-14.0,-53.5,-72.0,-109.5,-144.5,-176.0,-187.5,-197.0,-262.0,-316.0,-356.0,-299.0,-214.5,-60.5,150.0,362.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.0,"n_if_ahead_10":902,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":362,"desc":"Your spike: +362g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":466,"value":434,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:46 (fast: 7:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Smolder","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2400,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2400,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2400,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2400,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.4,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[29.0,42.0,79.0,126.0,145.0,175.5,211.0,263.0,319.0,437.0,537.0,585.0,718.0,866.0,1051.5,981.5,934.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":1562,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1051,"desc":"Your spike: +1051g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":452,"value":425,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:32 (fast: 7:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":310,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":310,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":310,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":310,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[26.5,61.5,88.5,87.5,82.0,90.5,101.5,159.0,195.5,184.0,399.5,510.5,823.0,1207.5,1657.0,1688.0,2427.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":176,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":36,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (36% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2427,"desc":"Your spike: +2427g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":451,"value":421,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:31 (fast: 7:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Brand","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":284,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":284,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":284,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":284,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.5,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,36.0,70.0,79.0,63.5,71.0,30.5,53.0,76.0,229.0,313.5,408.0,578.0,748.0,1384.5,1505.5,1920.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.4,"n_if_ahead_10":158,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1920,"desc":"Your spike: +1920g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":444,"value":421,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:24 (fast: 7:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Aphelios","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1974,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1974,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1974,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1974,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-1.0,-14.0,-32.0,-30.5,-49.0,-76.0,-62.0,-58.5,-27.0,18.0,65.0,149.5,317.0,357.0,547.0,740.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.3,"n_if_ahead_10":945,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":740,"desc":"Your spike: +740g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":459,"value":429,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:39 (fast: 7:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Viktor","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":100,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":100,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":100,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":100,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,14.5,71.5,100.0,95.5,73.5,187.0,211.5,252.5,257.0,477.5,483.0,419.0,685.0,753.0,748.0,1510.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":43,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (43% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1510,"desc":"Your spike: +1510g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 71)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":463,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:43 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Tristana","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1278,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1278,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1278,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1278,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[9.0,10.0,0.5,-33.5,-58.5,-66.5,-77.5,-98.5,-105.0,-130.5,-107.5,-129.0,-104.0,60.0,88.0,208.0,176.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":585,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Vayne","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1443,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1443,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1443,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1443,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,17.0,23.0,35.0,42.0,45.0,42.0,45.0,73.0,235.0,245.5,334.0,394.0,448.0,460.0,690.0,656.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":760,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":690,"desc":"Your spike: +690g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":456,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:36 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Twitch","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1123,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1123,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1123,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,16.0,14.0,34.0,51.0,44.0,35.0,21.0,8.0,65.5,65.0,110.0,264.5,305.0,106.0,163.5,119.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":565,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":305,"desc":"Your spike: +305g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":458,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:38 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Hwei","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":179,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":179,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":179,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":179,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.4,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[37.0,42.0,90.0,170.0,133.0,138.0,131.0,147.0,233.0,265.0,266.0,529.0,596.0,809.5,1134.5,1295.0,2104.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":109,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2104,"desc":"Your spike: +2104g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":453,"value":424,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:33 (fast: 7:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":389,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":389,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":389,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":389,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,12.0,14.0,10.0,14.0,7.0,17.0,39.0,86.0,193.0,222.0,256.0,312.0,310.0,302.5,430.5,684.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":214,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":684,"desc":"Your spike: +684g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":464,"value":437,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:44 (fast: 7:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Syndra","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":116,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":116,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":116,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":116,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":57.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[27.0,36.0,34.0,65.5,71.0,20.0,6.0,61.0,137.0,107.0,67.5,167.5,645.5,535.0,876.0,1206.0,1099.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.7,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":36,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (36% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1206,"desc":"Your spike: +1206g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":86,"desc":"Winners average 86 CS at 10:00 (losers: 79)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":455,"value":412,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:35 (fast: 6:52)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":237,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":237,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":237,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":237,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.8,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.0,6.0,-28.0,-54.0,-79.0,-149.0,-116.0,-152.0,-143.0,-163.0,-198.0,-320.0,-277.0,-9.0,155.0,738.0,1475.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.1,"n_if_ahead_10":110,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1475,"desc":"Your spike: +1475g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":461,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:41 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":481,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":481,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":481,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":481,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.0,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,35.0,76.0,98.0,113.0,132.0,181.0,193.0,221.0,252.0,314.5,253.0,449.0,694.0,849.0,1084.5,1764.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":288,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1764,"desc":"Your spike: +1764g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":455,"value":425,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:35 (fast: 7:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Senna","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1140,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1140,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1140,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1140,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":12,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":50.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,28.0,95.5,154.0,171.5,216.5,242.5,276.5,310.0,538.0,606.5,664.0,843.5,846.0,919.0,1133.5,1451.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.0,"n_if_ahead_10":737,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1451,"desc":"Your spike: +1451g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":450,"value":422,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:30 (fast: 7:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Nilah","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":361,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":361,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":361,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":361,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.7,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.0,14.0,-25.0,-45.0,-38.0,-61.0,-99.0,-79.0,-40.0,-102.0,-52.0,-70.0,-29.0,157.0,67.0,347.0,362.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.4,"n_if_ahead_10":169,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":362,"desc":"Your spike: +362g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":456,"value":428,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:36 (fast: 7:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Katarina","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":115,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":115,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":115,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":115,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[92.0,124.0,122.0,79.0,88.0,198.0,78.0,84.0,105.0,348.0,473.0,527.0,586.0,360.0,402.0,1012.0,-308.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":62,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1012,"desc":"Your spike: +1012g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":86,"desc":"Winners average 86 CS at 10:00 (losers: 80)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":442,"value":426,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:22 (fast: 7:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":140,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":140,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":140,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":140,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.7,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,54.0,149.5,200.0,232.0,282.0,324.5,412.5,479.5,811.0,1041.0,1077.0,1084.0,966.0,1001.0,1295.0,1636.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.9,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1636,"desc":"Your spike: +1636g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":431,"value":407,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:11 (fast: 6:47)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Xerath","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.0,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[33.0,39.0,49.0,114.0,91.0,39.0,112.0,153.0,150.0,16.0,-58.5,-53.0,87.0,64.0,58.0,439.0,455.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.7,"n_if_ahead_10":71,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":455,"desc":"Your spike: +455g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":445,"value":417,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:25 (fast: 6:57)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Zyra","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.7,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[52.0,105.0,226.0,290.0,307.0,140.0,271.0,277.0,341.0,527.0,970.0,1062.0,1401.0,2469.5,3068.5,2488.5,2345.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":41.2,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":162,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":162,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":162,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":162,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":51.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,33.0,68.0,83.5,28.5,-23.5,-70.0,-128.5,-93.0,-206.5,-102.0,-42.5,104.0,334.0,755.0,1125.0,1192.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":71,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1192,"desc":"Your spike: +1192g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":84,"desc":"Winners average 84 CS at 10:00 (losers: 77)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":448,"value":427,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:28 (fast: 7:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.6,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.5,21.0,34.5,-15.5,-74.5,-144.5,-19.0,81.5,58.5,-170.0,-301.5,-104.5,-103.0,-73.0,581.0,1611.0,2344.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2344,"desc":"Your spike: +2344g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":463,"value":444,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:43 (fast: 7:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Lux","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":169,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":169,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":169,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":169,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.0,"upper":50.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,28.0,26.0,36.0,54.0,45.0,28.0,-25.0,-41.0,-40.0,-105.0,-17.0,453.5,678.0,880.0,1081.0,814.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":80,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1081,"desc":"Your spike: +1081g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 76)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":456,"value":431,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:36 (fast: 7:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":25.5,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[63.0,70.5,141.0,132.0,170.0,208.5,79.0,151.5,245.5,301.5,83.0,-189.5,3.0,-368.5,160.0,394.5,459.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zeri","enemy":"Veigar","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":248,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":248,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":248,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":248,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":11.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.6,"upper":45.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[33.0,47.0,101.0,145.5,195.0,173.0,241.5,355.0,390.5,459.0,514.5,485.0,561.0,628.0,605.0,788.0,777.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.3,"n_if_ahead_10":170,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":788,"desc":"Your spike: +788g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":440,"value":415,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:20 (fast: 6:55)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}