{"matchups":[{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Shaco","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":15.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":80.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,107.0,95.5,148.0,245.0,315.5,343.0,551.0,720.5,779.0,843.5,1207.5,1425.0,1700.5,2180.0,2069.0,2013.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Viego","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":43,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":43,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":43,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":43,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":15.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":77.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.0,-48.0,-76.0,-90.0,-74.0,-189.0,-89.0,27.0,224.0,633.0,553.0,671.0,826.0,777.5,845.5,670.0,-776.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":845,"desc":"Your spike: +845g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Ivern","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":14.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":79.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,61.0,88.5,259.5,158.5,12.0,137.0,115.5,241.0,170.5,89.0,334.5,244.0,429.0,669.0,920.5,2421.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.2,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Ekko","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":14.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":79.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-15.0,-111.0,-61.0,-98.0,-154.0,104.0,47.0,167.0,54.0,57.0,206.0,505.0,436.0,1270.5,-2185.5,-3974.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":77,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":77,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":77,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":77,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":12.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":72.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-28.0,-89.0,-101.0,-314.0,-289.0,-369.0,-296.0,-313.0,-313.0,-384.0,-364.0,-838.0,-486.0,-390.0,-269.0,-589.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":91,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (91% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-838,"desc":"Their spike: -838g at 18:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":67,"desc":"Winners average 67 CS at 10:00 (losers: 60)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Sylas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":167,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":167,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":167,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":167,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":10.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.9,"upper":67.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[49.0,28.0,2.0,7.0,-39.0,-52.0,44.0,-39.0,-59.0,-26.0,47.5,-44.0,437.0,386.5,590.5,808.0,289.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.6,"n_if_ahead_10":81,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":808,"desc":"Your spike: +808g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":348,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:48 (fast: 5:19)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Viktor","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":9.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":71.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-23.5,-64.0,-81.0,-148.0,-77.0,-153.0,-102.5,-133.5,-60.5,-9.5,-84.0,-70.0,-334.0,77.0,89.0,384.0,864.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":41,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (41% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":864,"desc":"Your spike: +864g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Ahri","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":8.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":73.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-49.5,-89.0,-136.5,-250.0,-314.0,-271.5,-227.5,-4.0,-158.5,232.0,293.0,-41.0,-663.5,-1014.5,-746.0,-1293.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.6,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":8.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.3,"upper":71.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-59.5,-136.0,-160.0,-145.5,-114.0,-75.5,-8.0,-48.0,12.5,0.5,8.0,-4.0,-277.0,-575.0,-485.0,-225.0,-997.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-997,"desc":"Their spike: -997g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Shyvana","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":76,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":76,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":76,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":76,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":7.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.7,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-2.0,22.0,-24.0,-177.0,-123.0,-138.5,-85.0,-208.5,23.5,89.5,201.0,88.5,167.0,563.0,-174.5,-596.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-596,"desc":"Their spike: -596g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":76,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":76,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":76,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":76,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":67.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,12.0,36.0,43.0,69.0,-2.0,-28.0,-15.0,-29.5,-92.5,-107.0,-86.0,-174.0,63.5,150.0,-131.0,459.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":459,"desc":"Your spike: +459g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":133,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":133,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":133,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":133,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.9,"upper":64.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-41.0,-86.0,-181.0,-226.0,-323.0,-389.0,-401.0,-461.0,-493.0,-529.0,-558.0,-613.0,-476.0,-759.0,-857.0,-952.0,-925.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":45,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-952,"desc":"Their spike: -952g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:22)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Akshan","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":50,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":50,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":50,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":50,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":68.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-63.0,-94.0,-127.0,-167.0,-75.0,-6.5,-89.5,-102.0,-47.0,71.0,154.5,74.5,458.0,745.5,916.5,-110.0,-1648.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1648,"desc":"Their spike: -1648g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Vi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.1,"upper":73.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-42.0,-149.0,-148.0,-114.0,-58.0,231.0,385.0,428.0,633.0,519.0,792.0,721.5,925.0,149.5,-547.5,-8.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Katarina","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":71.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[56.0,40.0,143.0,-61.0,-51.0,-46.0,-118.5,9.5,-26.0,-161.0,-33.0,-303.0,-51.0,368.0,898.0,464.0,1249.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Graves","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":69.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-30.5,-133.0,-126.0,-137.0,-112.5,-49.5,-24.5,-51.0,-63.5,-145.0,-180.5,-351.0,-361.5,-512.0,-1171.5,-1368.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Smolder","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":116,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":116,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":116,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":116,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":63.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-24.0,-38.5,-22.5,-59.5,-45.0,11.5,30.5,88.5,101.5,248.0,413.0,337.5,705.0,582.0,593.0,367.0,215.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":69,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":49,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (49% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":705,"desc":"Your spike: +705g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.5,"upper":71.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[76.0,140.0,283.0,322.0,500.0,656.0,725.0,592.0,800.0,810.0,1385.0,1313.0,1976.0,1678.0,1423.0,720.0,464.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Sion","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1432,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1432,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1432,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":76,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1432,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":19,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.2,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,20.0,44.0,32.0,19.0,47.5,47.0,16.0,18.5,-43.5,-93.5,-126.5,-112.0,-111.5,-91.0,-6.5,-12.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.8,"n_if_ahead_10":726,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"KSante","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1333,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1333,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1333,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":75,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1333,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":18,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.9,"upper":57.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,7.0,14.0,-11.0,-50.0,-82.0,-124.0,-183.0,-232.0,-377.0,-437.0,-502.0,-528.0,-455.0,-409.0,-191.5,33.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.5,"n_if_ahead_10":519,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-528,"desc":"Their spike: -528g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":442,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":442,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":442,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":442,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":59.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,30.0,69.0,80.0,86.5,135.5,174.0,200.5,158.0,156.0,137.0,141.0,289.5,420.0,409.0,517.5,272.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.3,"n_if_ahead_10":252,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":517,"desc":"Your spike: +517g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":833,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":833,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":833,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":833,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":18,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.1,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-64.0,-102.0,-133.0,-144.0,-169.0,-160.0,-155.0,-118.0,-32.0,48.0,113.5,175.0,118.5,136.0,174.0,98.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.1,"n_if_ahead_10":398,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":68,"desc":"Winners average 68 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kayn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":101,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":101,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":101,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":101,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":63.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-35.0,44.0,-20.0,28.0,-26.0,53.0,159.0,420.0,486.0,851.0,714.0,872.5,717.0,1022.0,690.0,-4.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.1,"n_if_ahead_10":62,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":49,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (49% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1022,"desc":"Your spike: +1022g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":140,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":140,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":140,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":140,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":62.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.5,-6.5,-49.5,-78.0,-41.0,-51.5,-5.0,77.5,166.5,221.0,514.0,615.0,688.0,827.5,706.5,901.0,176.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.3,"n_if_ahead_10":79,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":901,"desc":"Your spike: +901g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Trundle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":280,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":280,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":280,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":280,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-42.0,-27.5,-73.0,-62.0,-76.5,-67.5,-103.5,-105.0,-135.0,-56.5,-50.0,-39.0,-241.5,-375.0,-585.0,-807.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.5,"n_if_ahead_10":130,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-807,"desc":"Their spike: -807g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Yone","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1311,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1311,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1311,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1311,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-36.0,-48.0,-48.0,-68.0,-76.0,-83.0,-62.0,-76.0,-33.5,-10.0,-75.0,87.0,-20.0,-135.0,-205.0,-371.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.7,"n_if_ahead_10":617,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-371,"desc":"Their spike: -371g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Aurora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":163,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":163,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":163,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":163,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":60.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-77.0,-98.0,-155.0,-214.0,-268.0,-391.0,-399.0,-453.0,-514.0,-514.0,-457.0,-380.0,-480.5,-525.0,-24.5,-79.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-525,"desc":"Their spike: -525g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":350,"value":327,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:50 (fast: 5:27)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Poppy","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":337,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":337,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":337,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":337,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-19.0,-41.0,-47.0,-50.0,-27.0,-67.0,-96.0,-160.0,-255.0,-273.5,-100.0,-133.0,18.0,285.0,530.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.4,"n_if_ahead_10":149,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":530,"desc":"Your spike: +530g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:20)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Skarner","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":66.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,26.0,84.0,91.0,119.0,234.0,77.0,110.0,219.0,71.5,102.5,84.0,589.0,630.0,855.5,854.0,1501.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.3,"n_if_ahead_10":27,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1501,"desc":"Your spike: +1501g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Ornn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1293,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1293,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1293,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":67,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1293,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":10,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,21.0,42.0,42.0,18.0,50.0,54.0,75.0,102.0,103.5,90.5,171.0,289.0,377.0,557.0,906.0,882.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.2,"n_if_ahead_10":704,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":906,"desc":"Your spike: +906g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Riven","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1273,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1273,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1273,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1273,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.7,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-21.0,-28.0,-21.0,-33.0,-68.0,-69.0,-90.0,-67.0,-32.5,-60.0,36.0,80.5,71.0,-12.0,-67.0,154.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.9,"n_if_ahead_10":606,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Udyr","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":214,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":214,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":214,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":214,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":58.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-27.5,-45.0,-87.0,-106.0,-171.0,-170.0,-253.5,-260.5,-262.5,-213.5,-324.0,-144.0,30.5,-107.0,-240.0,-200.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":87,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-324,"desc":"Their spike: -324g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Irelia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1028,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1028,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1028,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1028,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-48.0,-80.0,-149.5,-201.0,-231.5,-268.5,-265.0,-313.0,-432.5,-542.5,-646.5,-755.0,-892.0,-1001.0,-1264.0,-1169.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.6,"n_if_ahead_10":413,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1264,"desc":"Their spike: -1264g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 61)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Volibear","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1021,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1021,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1021,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1021,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-62.0,-129.0,-178.0,-254.0,-290.0,-297.0,-343.0,-353.0,-415.0,-573.5,-640.0,-694.0,-769.0,-799.5,-809.0,-846.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.4,"n_if_ahead_10":363,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-846,"desc":"Their spike: -846g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Sett","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1573,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1573,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1573,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1573,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-35.0,-56.0,-130.0,-166.0,-215.0,-276.0,-282.0,-327.0,-331.0,-352.0,-415.0,-384.5,-408.0,-342.0,-381.0,-296.0,-306.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":608,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-415,"desc":"Their spike: -415g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":348,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:48 (fast: 5:21)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":65.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[38.5,-29.0,-167.5,-296.0,-369.5,-309.5,-472.5,-490.0,-438.0,-746.0,-812.0,-752.5,-702.0,-555.5,-527.0,194.5,-29.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.3,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-812,"desc":"Their spike: -812g at 14:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 64)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Karma","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.7,"upper":64.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-13.0,-48.5,-81.0,-146.0,-198.5,-331.5,-299.5,-387.0,-549.5,-559.0,-573.0,-92.0,197.5,407.0,162.0,739.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":739,"desc":"Your spike: +739g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":391,"desc":"Survive to 6:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Darius","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1960,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1960,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1960,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1960,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.7,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-56.0,-95.5,-147.0,-192.0,-276.5,-310.0,-337.5,-351.0,-451.0,-546.0,-612.0,-690.5,-734.0,-661.5,-670.0,-724.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.4,"n_if_ahead_10":730,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-734,"desc":"Their spike: -734g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1405,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1405,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1405,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1405,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,0.0,0.0,-22.0,-64.0,-112.0,-143.0,-180.0,-221.0,-341.5,-436.0,-490.0,-573.0,-537.0,-547.5,-476.0,-582.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":577,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-582,"desc":"Their spike: -582g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Zoe","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":23,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.4,"upper":68.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-68.0,-108.0,-135.0,-147.0,-96.0,-132.0,-206.0,-390.0,-533.0,-638.0,-644.0,-348.0,-375.0,-68.0,233.0,-462.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":767,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":767,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":767,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":767,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-56.0,-100.0,-189.0,-202.0,-267.0,-294.0,-323.0,-371.0,-394.0,-437.0,-563.0,-629.5,-624.0,-647.0,-752.0,-904.5,-897.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.5,"n_if_ahead_10":274,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-904,"desc":"Their spike: -904g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":348,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:48 (fast: 5:24)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Briar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":62,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":62,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":62,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":62,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":63.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,11.0,-54.5,28.0,-195.0,-155.5,-288.0,-167.0,-96.5,-53.5,-295.0,-160.0,-153.0,93.5,-398.5,-571.5,-1070.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1070,"desc":"Their spike: -1070g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":359,"value":331,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:59 (fast: 5:31)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":884,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":884,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":884,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":884,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,49.0,106.0,132.0,178.5,215.5,239.5,258.0,251.0,243.0,160.0,180.0,189.0,151.0,40.0,-26.0,-133.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.2,"n_if_ahead_10":552,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":540,"desc":"Best trade window at 9:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Nocturne","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":33,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":33,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":33,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":22,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":33,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.2,"upper":67.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,56.0,70.0,26.0,108.0,160.0,155.0,184.0,268.0,465.0,596.0,680.0,372.0,349.0,656.0,1020.5,1330.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Renekton","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1513,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1513,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1513,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1513,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-42.0,-85.0,-104.0,-192.0,-269.0,-325.0,-341.0,-418.0,-547.0,-681.0,-745.5,-916.0,-1003.0,-915.0,-975.0,-944.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":529,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1003,"desc":"Their spike: -1003g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1599,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1599,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1599,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1599,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.8,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.0,0.0,-28.0,-48.0,-70.0,-69.0,-101.0,-101.0,-99.0,-150.5,-206.0,-216.0,-167.5,-165.5,-193.0,-19.0,194.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.7,"n_if_ahead_10":724,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":206,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":206,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":206,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":206,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-28.5,-24.0,-14.0,10.5,67.5,71.5,71.5,153.5,210.0,539.0,647.5,599.0,696.0,337.0,3.5,-424.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":109,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":696,"desc":"Your spike: +696g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Akali","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":529,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":529,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":529,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":529,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-55.0,-110.0,-149.0,-223.0,-283.0,-344.0,-424.0,-458.0,-632.0,-723.5,-824.0,-907.5,-955.0,-1024.5,-945.0,-1250.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.9,"n_if_ahead_10":160,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1250,"desc":"Their spike: -1250g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Brand","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":75,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":75,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":75,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":75,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.6,"upper":61.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,-41.0,-93.0,-111.0,-281.0,-336.0,-323.0,-260.0,-367.0,-445.0,-426.0,-516.5,-531.0,-513.0,-367.0,-59.0,-103.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-531,"desc":"Their spike: -531g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Fiora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1191,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1191,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1191,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1191,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":53.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-67.0,-143.0,-183.0,-233.0,-252.0,-267.0,-319.0,-335.0,-404.5,-488.0,-571.0,-699.0,-707.0,-777.5,-908.5,-1021.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.6,"n_if_ahead_10":463,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1021,"desc":"Their spike: -1021g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":352,"value":326,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:52 (fast: 5:26)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Gragas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":690,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":690,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":690,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":690,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,34.5,47.5,63.0,71.0,80.0,78.5,80.5,2.5,-48.0,-179.5,-245.5,-142.5,-8.5,173.5,278.0,369.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.1,"n_if_ahead_10":346,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":369,"desc":"Your spike: +369g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Gnar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":930,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":930,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":930,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":930,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.2,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-42.0,-65.5,-89.0,-120.5,-170.5,-181.5,-232.0,-288.5,-356.5,-467.0,-472.0,-560.0,-672.0,-641.0,-557.0,-565.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":362,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-672,"desc":"Their spike: -672g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Ryze","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":229,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":229,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":229,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":229,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-52.0,-38.0,-56.0,-100.0,-154.0,-155.0,-141.0,-163.0,-198.0,-320.0,-265.0,-332.0,-523.5,-635.0,-676.0,-505.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.6,"n_if_ahead_10":97,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-676,"desc":"Their spike: -676g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Camille","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":893,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":893,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":893,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":893,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-35.0,-72.0,-94.0,-114.0,-122.0,-110.0,-108.0,-65.0,-114.0,-145.0,-181.0,-297.0,-447.5,-468.0,-417.0,-225.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.3,"n_if_ahead_10":428,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-468,"desc":"Their spike: -468g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2335,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2335,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2335,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2335,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,-7.0,-42.0,-101.0,-144.0,-187.0,-213.0,-254.0,-308.0,-410.0,-575.0,-595.5,-598.0,-513.0,-428.5,-390.0,-189.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.2,"n_if_ahead_10":893,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-598,"desc":"Their spike: -598g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Rengar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":61.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.0,-68.5,-222.0,-248.5,-179.0,-301.5,-122.0,-327.5,-357.5,-216.5,123.5,319.0,358.0,597.0,937.5,989.0,993.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":993,"desc":"Your spike: +993g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":197,"desc":"Survive to 3:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":348,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:48 (fast: 5:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Zed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.3,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.5,16.0,-13.5,-53.0,-20.0,-82.5,-97.5,-46.5,-259.0,-455.0,-684.0,-827.0,-1060.0,-854.0,-1115.0,-1083.0,-957.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1115,"desc":"Their spike: -1115g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":229,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":229,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":229,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":229,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-56.0,-152.0,-170.0,-216.0,-279.0,-277.0,-272.0,-267.0,-433.0,-468.5,-497.5,-343.0,-560.0,-471.0,-106.0,-115.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":93,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-560,"desc":"Their spike: -560g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":351,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:51 (fast: 5:21)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Jayce","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":951,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":951,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":951,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":951,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-43.0,-82.0,-118.0,-179.0,-192.0,-199.0,-230.0,-257.0,-281.0,-397.0,-498.0,-533.0,-664.0,-806.0,-906.0,-979.0,-1043.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.6,"n_if_ahead_10":362,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1043,"desc":"Their spike: -1043g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:21)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1357,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1357,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1357,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1357,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.0,-18.0,-56.0,-82.0,-114.0,-146.0,-188.0,-217.0,-211.0,-395.0,-586.5,-677.5,-837.0,-1174.0,-1527.5,-1677.5,-1820.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":563,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1820,"desc":"Their spike: -1820g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Shen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":989,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":989,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":989,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":989,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,-2.0,-20.0,-42.0,-41.0,-3.0,21.0,47.0,66.0,139.5,240.5,321.0,491.0,548.0,711.0,813.0,746.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":526,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":813,"desc":"Your spike: +813g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kennen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":450,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":450,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":450,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":450,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-39.5,-86.0,-128.5,-156.0,-215.5,-238.0,-291.5,-278.0,-377.5,-434.0,-481.0,-588.0,-727.0,-731.0,-534.0,-372.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.2,"n_if_ahead_10":163,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-731,"desc":"Their spike: -731g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Nasus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":784,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":784,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":784,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":784,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":52.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[68.0,78.5,135.5,169.5,202.5,247.0,259.0,311.0,294.5,328.5,378.0,402.0,395.5,408.0,191.0,177.0,-95.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":505,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":408,"desc":"Your spike: +408g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Sejuani","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,26.0,-19.0,-70.0,-78.5,-79.0,-28.0,-175.5,-176.5,-418.0,-547.5,-496.0,-647.0,-420.0,-311.0,-267.0,131.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.8,"n_if_ahead_10":53,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":83,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (83% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-647,"desc":"Their spike: -647g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Chogath","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":803,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":803,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":803,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":803,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,8.0,-5.0,4.0,10.0,20.0,49.0,79.0,54.0,8.0,22.0,12.5,21.5,22.0,-44.0,67.0,-98.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":417,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":448,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":448,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":448,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":448,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.5,-42.0,-53.5,-62.5,-71.5,-72.0,-143.5,-152.5,-127.0,-282.0,-410.0,-416.0,-572.0,-583.0,-755.0,-764.0,-922.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.9,"n_if_ahead_10":202,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-922,"desc":"Their spike: -922g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Varus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":351,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":351,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":351,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":351,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.3,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-63.0,-115.0,-159.0,-208.0,-282.0,-306.0,-348.0,-436.0,-549.0,-735.0,-1013.0,-1138.0,-1355.0,-1482.5,-1752.0,-1971.0,-1830.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.0,"n_if_ahead_10":106,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1971,"desc":"Their spike: -1971g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:21)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Olaf","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":568,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":568,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":568,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":568,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.5,-58.0,-84.5,-116.0,-174.0,-203.5,-278.5,-261.0,-258.0,-438.0,-578.0,-624.5,-601.0,-620.0,-743.5,-809.5,-661.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":239,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-809,"desc":"Their spike: -809g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Quinn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":272,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":272,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":272,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":272,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-90.0,-136.5,-147.5,-194.0,-197.0,-237.0,-215.0,-246.5,-194.0,-126.0,-75.0,-109.0,-100.0,-99.0,-348.0,-677.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.0,"n_if_ahead_10":109,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-677,"desc":"Their spike: -677g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":348,"value":326,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:48 (fast: 5:26)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kalista","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":24,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.0,"upper":66.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-84.0,-143.0,-262.0,-347.0,-368.0,-148.0,-177.0,-118.0,-377.0,-589.0,-624.0,-837.0,-870.0,-1571.0,-1002.0,-586.5,802.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":9,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Gwen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":896,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":896,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":896,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":896,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-42.0,-73.0,-91.0,-107.5,-144.0,-121.5,-140.0,-107.5,-144.5,-165.0,-205.0,-265.5,-425.0,-566.0,-918.0,-1030.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":412,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1030,"desc":"Their spike: -1030g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Jax","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2317,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2317,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2317,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2317,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":49.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.0,-26.0,-76.0,-109.0,-128.0,-161.0,-205.0,-250.0,-289.0,-316.0,-542.0,-629.0,-781.5,-869.0,-1022.0,-1015.5,-1104.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.1,"n_if_ahead_10":902,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1104,"desc":"Their spike: -1104g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Garen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2112,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2112,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2112,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":50.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-14.0,-38.0,-35.5,-57.0,-104.5,-132.0,-182.5,-212.5,-263.0,-425.0,-487.0,-662.0,-837.5,-995.0,-1166.0,-1277.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":887,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1277,"desc":"Their spike: -1277g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Malphite","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1742,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1742,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1742,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1742,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":50.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,46.0,67.0,73.5,50.0,21.5,6.5,-25.5,-46.0,-184.0,-290.5,-350.0,-330.0,-287.5,-119.0,99.5,402.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.3,"n_if_ahead_10":816,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":402,"desc":"Your spike: +402g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Zac","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":160,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":160,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":160,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":160,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.9,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.5,3.0,-27.0,-10.5,-11.0,75.5,49.0,13.5,27.0,-7.0,-207.5,-129.0,59.0,32.5,453.0,510.5,532.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":81,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":532,"desc":"Your spike: +532g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Yorick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":826,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":826,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":826,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":826,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":50.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,-7.5,-53.0,-78.5,-105.5,-139.5,-201.0,-216.0,-240.5,-416.0,-578.0,-641.0,-634.0,-723.0,-732.0,-623.5,-685.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.2,"n_if_ahead_10":323,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-732,"desc":"Their spike: -732g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Warwick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":351,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":351,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":351,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":351,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.1,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-36.0,-24.0,-59.0,-78.0,-84.0,-85.0,-116.0,-124.0,-253.0,-288.5,-392.5,-347.0,-511.0,-367.0,-864.0,-446.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.1,"n_if_ahead_10":155,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-864,"desc":"Their spike: -864g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Vayne","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":694,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":694,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":694,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":694,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":50.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-78.5,-119.0,-130.0,-159.0,-139.5,-149.5,-146.0,-146.0,-124.0,-137.0,-137.0,-185.5,-422.0,-572.0,-679.0,-817.0,-1070.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.4,"n_if_ahead_10":305,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1070,"desc":"Their spike: -1070g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":62,"desc":"Winners average 62 CS at 10:00 (losers: 56)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":618,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":618,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":618,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":618,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":51.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-91.0,-163.0,-219.5,-243.5,-292.0,-363.5,-381.5,-403.5,-547.0,-590.5,-609.0,-597.0,-552.0,-599.0,-679.0,-449.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.3,"n_if_ahead_10":193,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-679,"desc":"Their spike: -679g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":352,"value":328,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:52 (fast: 5:28)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":51,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":51,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":51,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":51,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":60.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-74.0,-51.0,-105.0,-121.0,-89.0,-146.0,-186.0,-243.0,-345.0,-477.0,-435.0,-454.0,-257.0,-294.0,-692.0,-364.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-692,"desc":"Their spike: -692g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Urgot","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":740,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":740,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":740,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":740,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":14,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.8,"upper":50.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-56.5,-91.0,-116.0,-80.0,-70.5,-66.0,-74.0,-40.0,-12.0,-163.0,-354.0,-488.0,-783.0,-973.0,-1133.0,-986.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.6,"n_if_ahead_10":357,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1133,"desc":"Their spike: -1133g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":274,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":274,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":274,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":274,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-69.0,-144.0,-264.5,-375.5,-412.5,-497.5,-547.5,-575.5,-834.0,-1105.0,-1168.0,-1279.0,-1353.5,-1470.0,-953.0,-1149.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.3,"n_if_ahead_10":53,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1470,"desc":"Their spike: -1470g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"RekSai","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":91,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":91,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":91,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":91,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.3,"upper":56.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,35.0,-14.0,-26.0,-59.0,31.0,-12.0,9.0,101.0,133.0,27.0,-259.0,272.0,38.0,16.0,6.0,-638.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-638,"desc":"Their spike: -638g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Anivia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":156,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":156,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":156,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":156,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.9,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-22.5,-65.5,-50.0,-33.0,-13.5,25.0,-16.0,-8.5,46.0,19.0,20.0,62.0,88.0,181.0,222.0,-27.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.9,"n_if_ahead_10":77,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Maokai","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":108,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":108,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":108,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":108,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.3,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,49.5,96.0,91.5,162.5,201.0,250.0,224.5,313.5,334.5,462.0,559.5,520.0,668.0,917.0,1045.0,1405.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.8,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":40,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (40% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1405,"desc":"Your spike: +1405g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Galio","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.2,"upper":62.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,20.0,24.0,83.0,51.0,175.0,124.0,44.0,28.0,282.0,155.0,168.0,879.0,1427.0,2007.0,1532.5,2152.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":37.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Rumble","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":587,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":587,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":587,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":587,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,-34.0,-131.0,-213.0,-274.0,-349.0,-362.0,-411.0,-436.0,-468.0,-551.5,-596.0,-539.0,-436.5,-395.0,-556.0,-303.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":194,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-596,"desc":"Their spike: -596g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:24)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kayle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":993,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":993,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":993,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":76,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":993,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":48.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[26.0,33.0,75.0,136.0,155.0,155.0,163.0,153.0,170.0,161.0,229.0,247.0,223.0,89.5,-10.5,-379.5,-403.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.9,"n_if_ahead_10":575,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-403,"desc":"Their spike: -403g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kled","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":555,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":555,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":555,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":555,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.8,"upper":49.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-76.0,-184.0,-218.0,-305.0,-359.0,-388.0,-403.0,-436.0,-470.0,-650.0,-639.5,-825.0,-954.5,-963.0,-973.0,-983.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.3,"n_if_ahead_10":183,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-983,"desc":"Their spike: -983g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":353,"value":330,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:53 (fast: 5:30)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Neeko","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.4,"upper":62.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-49.0,-308.0,-396.0,-402.0,-468.0,-486.0,-626.0,-636.0,-723.0,-872.0,-625.0,-773.5,-845.0,-821.0,-1370.0,-651.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.9,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Swain","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":297,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":297,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":297,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":297,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.9,"upper":50.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-9.0,-35.0,-75.0,-105.0,-131.0,-217.0,-248.0,-298.0,-278.0,-401.5,-460.0,-518.0,-620.0,-534.0,-251.0,-121.0,125.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.6,"n_if_ahead_10":112,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-620,"desc":"Their spike: -620g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":350,"value":329,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:50 (fast: 5:29)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":95,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":95,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":95,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":95,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.6,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,52.0,23.0,39.0,42.0,24.0,58.0,85.0,247.0,281.0,379.0,565.0,694.0,820.0,1628.5,1556.0,1988.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1988,"desc":"Your spike: +1988g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Teemo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":824,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":824,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":824,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":824,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":47.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-52.0,-94.0,-140.5,-199.5,-258.5,-295.0,-350.0,-377.0,-443.0,-598.5,-799.0,-866.0,-1050.5,-1067.5,-1169.5,-1240.0,-1389.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.2,"n_if_ahead_10":244,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1389,"desc":"Their spike: -1389g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:22)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Singed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":796,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":796,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":796,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":796,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.2,"upper":47.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-20.0,-28.0,-44.0,-35.0,-57.5,-92.0,-131.5,-131.0,-110.5,-90.0,-59.0,-94.0,-63.5,25.5,-26.0,290.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.3,"n_if_ahead_10":342,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.7,"upper":59.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-63.0,-98.0,-172.0,-215.0,-270.0,-227.0,-264.0,-216.0,-207.0,-148.0,-214.0,-116.0,-498.0,-493.0,-747.5,-666.0,-972.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":153,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":153,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":153,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":153,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":51.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-63.0,-88.0,-116.0,-217.0,-340.0,-335.0,-383.0,-497.0,-649.5,-786.5,-816.0,-769.0,-877.5,-715.0,-206.0,-245.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.3,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-877,"desc":"Their spike: -877g at 21:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":61,"desc":"Winners average 61 CS at 10:00 (losers: 55)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":356,"value":325,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:56 (fast: 5:25)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Illaoi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":719,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":719,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":719,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":719,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":6.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":46.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,-29.0,-97.0,-133.0,-188.0,-291.0,-322.0,-384.0,-480.0,-684.0,-972.0,-1166.0,-1272.0,-1340.0,-1341.0,-1285.0,-1636.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.7,"n_if_ahead_10":227,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1636,"desc":"Their spike: -1636g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Azir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":7.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.0,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,0.0,7.0,-26.0,25.0,-77.0,-64.0,-44.0,-22.0,-127.0,26.0,-62.0,-75.0,-390.5,-842.0,-1295.5,-1626.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.2,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":480,"end_time":600,"value":37,"desc":"Most early deaths land 8:00-10:00 (37% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1626,"desc":"Their spike: -1626g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Zilean","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":11.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.4,"upper":57.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,47.5,20.0,182.0,199.5,188.0,327.0,400.5,394.5,328.0,531.5,574.0,713.0,792.0,700.0,864.0,992.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":40.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Zaahen","enemy":"Veigar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.0,"edge_pp":17.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":32.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":32.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":19.1,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,31.0,14.0,74.5,15.5,-6.5,58.0,14.0,35.5,26.5,346.5,340.5,535.0,60.0,345.5,847.0,1379.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.1,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}