{"matchups":[{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Smolder","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":28.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":76.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":76.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":56.6,"upper":88.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":17.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,50.0,93.0,260.0,298.0,412.0,394.0,482.0,559.0,590.0,1253.0,1301.0,1537.0,2285.5,2120.0,905.0,545.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":78.9,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":18.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":79.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.5,-106.0,-157.0,-181.0,-427.0,-341.0,-217.5,-499.5,-256.5,-384.0,-68.0,34.0,-196.0,-1048.0,435.0,702.0,167.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":91.7,"n_if_ahead_10":12,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Brand","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":13.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":76.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,-22.0,128.0,169.0,-32.0,-67.0,-44.0,-89.0,-211.0,-350.0,-436.0,-320.0,541.0,764.0,455.0,1563.0,1260.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":13.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":74.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-59.0,12.5,114.0,161.0,129.0,193.0,109.0,231.5,166.0,562.5,957.5,1331.0,1343.5,1467.0,1585.0,442.0,787.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":27,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Kennen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":90,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":90,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":90,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":90,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":12.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.7,"upper":69.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[44.5,40.0,99.5,126.0,198.0,216.5,153.5,164.5,130.5,168.5,366.5,496.0,459.0,586.0,1295.0,1348.0,1502.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":78.7,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1502,"desc":"Your spike: +1502g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 58)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Zed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":11.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.7,"upper":75.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[64.0,54.0,24.0,32.0,-34.0,42.0,52.0,1.0,-221.0,-230.0,-169.5,-250.5,131.0,-1060.5,-1374.5,-1834.5,-3417.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":91.7,"n_if_ahead_10":12,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Varus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":90,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":90,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":90,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":90,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":11.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":68.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-82.0,-79.0,-87.5,-27.5,-58.5,-135.0,-161.0,-376.5,-183.0,-474.5,-438.0,-503.5,-236.0,-577.0,-160.0,-622.5,-594.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":74.4,"n_if_ahead_10":39,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-622,"desc":"Their spike: -622g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Winners average 59 CS at 10:00 (losers: 50)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":155,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":155,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":155,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":155,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":10.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.5,"upper":64.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-70.0,-109.0,-57.0,-158.0,-164.0,-45.0,-77.0,-178.0,-350.0,-275.5,-497.0,-456.0,-396.0,-547.0,-582.0,-797.5,-294.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.4,"n_if_ahead_10":64,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-797,"desc":"Their spike: -797g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":64,"desc":"Winners average 64 CS at 10:00 (losers: 56)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Swain","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":9.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.1,"upper":73.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.0,25.5,71.5,13.5,48.5,-164.5,-208.5,-204.0,-262.5,-122.0,-205.5,-225.5,207.5,1014.0,1524.0,1447.0,2041.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Sylas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":44,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":44,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":44,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":44,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":9.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":70.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[78.5,14.0,90.5,163.5,175.0,166.5,309.0,315.5,295.0,251.5,594.0,584.0,744.5,648.5,562.5,-342.0,-356.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":744,"desc":"Your spike: +744g at 18:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Jayce","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":368,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":368,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":368,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":368,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":8.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.1,"upper":61.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.5,8.0,31.5,26.0,-41.5,-16.5,-34.0,-7.0,-1.5,-41.0,-11.0,-48.0,-25.0,-353.0,-431.0,-843.0,-1002.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.1,"n_if_ahead_10":184,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1002,"desc":"Their spike: -1002g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":8.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":72.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[38.0,46.0,212.0,243.0,381.0,197.0,314.0,626.0,644.0,685.0,584.0,469.0,-70.0,662.0,-156.0,-407.0,1509.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":80,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":80,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":80,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":80,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":7.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,-18.0,98.5,195.5,150.0,285.0,245.0,331.0,458.0,533.0,717.0,646.0,664.0,842.0,1126.0,1455.0,1339.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":83,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (83% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1455,"desc":"Your spike: +1455g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 57)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Vayne","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":151,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":151,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":151,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":151,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":7.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":62.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-82.0,-36.0,-23.0,-55.0,17.0,65.0,125.0,178.0,246.0,488.0,641.0,690.0,711.0,1023.0,1105.0,1090.5,1040.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":90,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":47,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (47% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1105,"desc":"Your spike: +1105g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":66,"desc":"Winners average 66 CS at 10:00 (losers: 60)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":76,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":76,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":76,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":76,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":6.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.8,"upper":64.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.0,38.5,57.0,104.0,147.5,37.5,-13.5,-154.0,-157.5,-423.5,-515.0,-478.5,-547.0,-549.0,-219.0,386.0,440.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.4,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-549,"desc":"Their spike: -549g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":363,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":363,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":363,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":363,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,31.0,27.0,20.0,-14.0,-16.0,-24.0,4.0,-86.0,-261.5,-319.5,-522.0,-561.0,-495.0,-306.0,-267.0,-11.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.5,"n_if_ahead_10":166,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-561,"desc":"Their spike: -561g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Aurora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.1,"upper":69.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.5,-16.0,56.0,71.0,-158.0,-236.0,-120.0,87.5,-253.0,-12.0,217.0,348.0,58.5,428.0,1426.5,1725.5,1337.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.9,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":161,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":161,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":161,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":161,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[63.0,68.0,148.0,234.0,251.0,267.0,269.0,243.0,276.0,129.0,134.0,99.0,229.5,297.0,240.0,154.0,-140.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.8,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Gnar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":201,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":201,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":201,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":201,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":59.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[30.0,47.0,184.0,192.0,222.0,238.0,208.0,233.0,238.0,-44.5,-46.5,16.0,145.0,369.0,307.0,223.0,195.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.3,"n_if_ahead_10":113,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":369,"desc":"Your spike: +369g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Udyr","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":67.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-28.0,-12.0,-11.5,25.5,-118.0,-101.0,-80.5,-176.5,-96.0,-133.5,-175.5,-70.0,63.5,307.0,720.0,312.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.1,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Camille","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":141,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":141,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":141,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":141,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.6,"upper":59.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,9.0,-45.0,-97.0,-86.0,-92.0,-143.0,-210.0,-44.0,-37.0,-12.0,-11.0,343.0,259.0,387.0,178.5,102.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":66,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":387,"desc":"Your spike: +387g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Trundle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":85,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":85,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":85,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":85,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.3,"upper":62.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-91.0,-118.0,-76.0,-155.0,-160.0,-240.0,-414.0,-360.0,-350.0,-579.0,-817.0,-921.0,-1251.0,-1108.0,-1868.5,-1957.0,-2288.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":82.8,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2288,"desc":"Their spike: -2288g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Winners average 59 CS at 10:00 (losers: 53)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Rumble","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":127,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":127,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":127,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":127,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.6,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.0,-5.0,-25.0,-92.0,-58.0,-66.0,-162.0,-38.0,-101.0,68.0,105.0,164.0,306.0,595.5,604.0,750.0,838.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":838,"desc":"Your spike: +838g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":405,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":405,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":405,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":405,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":55.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.0,-17.0,-40.0,-25.0,-15.0,-61.0,-74.0,-49.0,-112.0,-67.0,-178.5,-273.0,-269.0,-409.0,-698.0,-853.0,-1181.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.1,"n_if_ahead_10":185,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1181,"desc":"Their spike: -1181g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Kayle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":185,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":185,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":185,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":185,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.7,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,70.0,169.0,256.0,397.0,476.0,587.0,616.0,733.0,957.0,1288.0,1560.0,1697.0,1729.0,1436.0,1203.5,919.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.1,"n_if_ahead_10":144,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":1729,"desc":"Your spike: +1729g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":200,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":200,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":200,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":200,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.6,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.0,21.5,95.0,55.5,67.5,12.0,83.5,30.5,0.5,-159.0,-279.0,-249.5,-299.5,-353.5,-322.0,-197.0,-670.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":100,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-670,"desc":"Their spike: -670g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Yorick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":183,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":183,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":183,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":183,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,14.0,57.0,119.0,120.0,92.0,6.0,-90.0,-118.0,-188.0,-384.0,-385.0,-526.0,-760.0,-576.0,-244.5,-155.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.4,"n_if_ahead_10":85,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-760,"desc":"Their spike: -760g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Gwen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":118,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":118,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":118,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":118,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":58.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-3.0,51.5,39.0,-32.5,-27.5,-80.5,-31.5,-57.5,90.5,-274.0,-78.0,-513.0,-696.0,-655.0,-1101.0,32.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.4,"n_if_ahead_10":57,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1101,"desc":"Their spike: -1101g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":67,"desc":"Winners average 67 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Teemo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":180,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":180,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":180,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":180,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-41.0,-50.5,-106.0,-126.5,-139.5,-103.5,-133.0,-143.0,-153.5,-192.5,-93.5,-130.0,-312.0,-392.0,-336.0,-527.5,-503.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":81,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-527,"desc":"Their spike: -527g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":51,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":51,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":51,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":22,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":51,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":60.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-50.0,-131.0,-340.0,-439.0,-613.0,-664.0,-721.0,-855.0,-911.0,-914.0,-1415.0,-1115.0,-795.0,-763.5,-596.0,237.0,667.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-1415,"desc":"Their spike: -1415g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Yone","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":297,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":297,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":297,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":297,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.0,21.0,36.0,51.0,0.0,27.0,-53.0,-136.0,-116.0,-84.0,-83.5,16.0,-154.0,-455.0,-741.5,-1093.0,-852.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":139,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1093,"desc":"Their spike: -1093g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":68,"desc":"Winners average 68 CS at 10:00 (losers: 60)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Singed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,21.5,49.5,115.0,98.0,106.5,65.5,-5.5,-63.0,75.0,81.0,130.0,12.0,257.5,243.0,238.5,291.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 73)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Quinn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":58,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":58,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":58,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":58,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.3,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-93.0,-98.0,-159.5,-219.5,-178.5,-184.0,-86.0,-197.0,-195.0,-29.5,56.0,-100.0,-171.0,-197.5,333.0,603.0,1845.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":26,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":84,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (84% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1845,"desc":"Your spike: +1845g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":221,"desc":"Survive to 3:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Sion","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":207,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":207,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":207,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":207,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,37.0,39.0,7.0,-33.0,-36.0,-90.0,-51.0,-125.0,-262.0,-514.5,-523.0,-466.0,-504.0,-492.5,-75.0,-611.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.2,"n_if_ahead_10":88,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-611,"desc":"Their spike: -611g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Garen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":381,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":381,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":381,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":381,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.3,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-14.0,-21.0,-15.0,-18.0,-61.0,-106.0,-181.0,-256.0,-464.0,-661.5,-887.0,-819.5,-1137.5,-1280.0,-1294.0,-1553.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":160,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1553,"desc":"Their spike: -1553g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Riven","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":143,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":143,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":143,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":143,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.2,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-53.0,-38.0,-65.0,-49.0,-99.0,-131.0,-244.0,-330.0,-448.0,-665.0,-897.0,-983.0,-988.0,-1109.0,-1084.0,-861.0,-843.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":51,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":49,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (49% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1109,"desc":"Their spike: -1109g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Zac","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":20,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.8,"upper":64.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[55.0,77.0,42.0,124.0,299.0,172.0,211.0,133.0,233.0,-71.5,-12.5,-311.0,425.0,297.0,718.0,-57.0,873.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":140,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":140,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":140,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":140,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.7,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.5,6.5,49.5,78.0,41.0,51.5,5.0,-77.5,-166.5,-221.0,-514.0,-615.0,-688.0,-827.5,-706.5,-901.0,-176.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.4,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-901,"desc":"Their spike: -901g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Jax","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":275,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":275,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":275,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":275,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-56.0,-31.0,-98.0,-111.0,-171.0,-324.0,-386.0,-457.0,-591.0,-809.0,-1098.5,-1168.0,-1371.0,-1547.0,-1443.5,-1803.0,-2070.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":85,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2070,"desc":"Their spike: -2070g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":249,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":249,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":249,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":249,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.9,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,48.0,96.0,116.0,91.0,73.0,64.0,-35.0,-133.0,-276.0,-393.0,-452.0,-638.0,-604.0,-710.0,-768.0,-822.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.5,"n_if_ahead_10":114,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-822,"desc":"Their spike: -822g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":66,"desc":"Winners average 66 CS at 10:00 (losers: 59)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Illaoi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":118,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":118,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":118,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":118,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.2,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[26.5,-23.5,27.5,-4.0,-123.5,-163.5,-254.5,-359.0,-430.0,-733.5,-1186.0,-1389.0,-1685.5,-1496.5,-1036.0,-984.0,-346.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":32,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1685,"desc":"Their spike: -1685g at 18:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":60,"desc":"Winners average 60 CS at 10:00 (losers: 54)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Darius","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":317,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":317,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":317,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":317,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":50.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-88.0,-53.0,-35.0,-99.0,-150.0,-204.0,-193.0,-252.0,-378.0,-560.0,-755.0,-892.0,-928.0,-1182.5,-1214.0,-1313.0,-1203.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":118,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1313,"desc":"Their spike: -1313g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Poppy","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":47,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":47,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":47,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":47,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.4,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,-18.0,-28.0,-36.0,-63.0,-130.0,-210.0,-289.0,-33.0,-102.0,-419.0,-341.0,-85.5,95.0,80.0,259.0,713.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":82,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (82% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":713,"desc":"Your spike: +713g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Irelia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":177,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":177,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":177,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":177,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.5,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-35.0,-68.0,-140.0,-195.0,-285.0,-304.0,-541.0,-642.0,-990.0,-1484.0,-1573.0,-1965.0,-2244.5,-1915.0,-2444.0,-2309.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":56,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-2444,"desc":"Their spike: -2444g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":66,"desc":"Winners average 66 CS at 10:00 (losers: 58)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":135,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":135,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":135,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":135,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.3,"upper":52.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-110.0,-204.0,-330.0,-363.0,-481.0,-593.0,-615.0,-696.0,-882.0,-1321.0,-1646.0,-1877.0,-2006.0,-2234.0,-2330.0,-1864.0,-1901.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.3,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-2330,"desc":"Their spike: -2330g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":61,"desc":"Winners average 61 CS at 10:00 (losers: 55)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":361,"value":331,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:01 (fast: 5:31)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Chogath","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":110,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":110,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":110,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":110,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.7,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.0,80.0,100.5,168.0,277.5,295.5,193.5,199.5,224.0,143.5,115.5,255.5,346.0,662.0,1278.5,777.0,653.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":44.4,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1278,"desc":"Your spike: +1278g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Sett","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":244,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":244,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":244,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":244,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.4,"upper":49.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-68.0,-135.0,-211.0,-282.5,-455.5,-644.5,-642.5,-731.5,-815.0,-1072.0,-1307.0,-1503.5,-1705.0,-1595.0,-1500.5,-1940.0,-1358.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.0,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":83,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (83% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1940,"desc":"Their spike: -1940g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Winners average 59 CS at 10:00 (losers: 53)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":358,"value":328,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:58 (fast: 5:28)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Akali","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.0,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[32.5,-54.0,-66.5,-107.5,-154.0,-265.5,-255.0,-374.0,-384.0,-631.0,-598.0,-622.0,-685.0,-1001.0,-909.5,-1055.0,-245.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.1,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1055,"desc":"Their spike: -1055g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Renekton","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":205,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":205,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":205,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":205,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.8,"upper":50.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-14.0,-13.0,-41.0,-152.0,-237.0,-370.0,-574.0,-741.0,-867.0,-1108.0,-1337.0,-1500.0,-1639.0,-1853.0,-1892.5,-2044.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.7,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":84,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (84% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2044,"desc":"Their spike: -2044g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Ornn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":182,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":182,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":182,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":182,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":50.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[56.0,61.0,72.0,98.0,112.0,63.5,41.0,51.0,-9.5,-39.0,-96.0,-99.0,6.0,51.0,316.0,409.0,749.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.1,"n_if_ahead_10":90,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":749,"desc":"Your spike: +749g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Shen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":173,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":173,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":173,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":173,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.2,"upper":50.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-9.0,-28.0,9.0,-11.0,-7.0,-10.0,35.0,64.0,14.0,-33.0,-26.0,169.0,270.0,492.0,349.0,302.0,914.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.7,"n_if_ahead_10":87,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":914,"desc":"Your spike: +914g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":25.5,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.5,-21.5,-118.5,-75.0,-145.0,88.0,-129.5,-122.0,5.0,-333.0,-163.0,-18.5,-88.0,474.0,413.0,-575.0,75.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.2,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"KSante","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":215,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":215,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":215,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":215,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.5,"upper":48.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[18.0,-18.0,-16.0,-25.0,-155.0,-331.0,-430.0,-474.0,-603.0,-797.0,-993.0,-1163.0,-1316.0,-1137.0,-1213.0,-750.0,-273.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.2,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1316,"desc":"Their spike: -1316g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Volibear","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":180,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":180,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":180,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":180,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":5.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.7,"upper":49.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-54.0,-61.0,-143.5,-134.5,-312.0,-325.0,-423.0,-557.5,-635.0,-726.5,-877.5,-1111.0,-1380.0,-1565.5,-1623.0,-1869.0,-1143.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.9,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":82,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (82% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1869,"desc":"Their spike: -1869g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":121,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":121,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":121,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":121,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":6.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.9,"upper":50.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-76.0,-128.0,-189.0,-255.0,-296.0,-415.0,-472.0,-542.0,-517.0,-395.0,-623.0,-635.0,-700.0,-499.0,-339.0,-68.0,801.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":39,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":89,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (89% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":801,"desc":"Your spike: +801g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":358,"value":335,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:58 (fast: 5:35)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Malphite","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":310,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":310,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":310,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":310,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":6.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.9,"upper":46.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.5,32.5,85.5,84.0,56.0,27.0,-20.0,-117.0,-177.5,-302.0,-452.0,-444.0,-482.0,-523.0,-223.0,7.0,115.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.9,"n_if_ahead_10":130,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-523,"desc":"Their spike: -523g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Urgot","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":105,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":105,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":105,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":105,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":6.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.0,"upper":50.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-77.0,-62.0,-62.0,-91.0,-151.0,-126.0,-219.0,-127.0,-211.0,-341.0,-469.0,-615.0,-1288.0,-1227.5,-1381.0,-1498.5,-1653.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":39.1,"n_if_ahead_10":46,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1653,"desc":"Their spike: -1653g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Gragas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":7.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.6,"upper":48.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[54.0,58.0,96.0,83.0,42.0,-28.0,-71.0,-70.0,-199.0,-300.5,-546.5,-557.0,-263.0,-297.0,-749.0,-634.0,-327.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.9,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-749,"desc":"Their spike: -749g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Nasus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":8.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.9,"upper":47.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[76.0,74.0,153.0,175.0,293.0,327.0,462.0,355.0,313.0,364.0,120.0,163.5,-39.0,-177.0,-142.5,-334.0,-679.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.1,"n_if_ahead_10":71,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-679,"desc":"Their spike: -679g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1729,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 28m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":480,"desc":"Best trade window at 8:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Anivia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":8.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.4,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.0,-10.0,-41.0,18.0,-29.0,30.0,21.0,-22.0,14.0,19.0,22.0,-21.0,-37.0,-236.0,109.0,23.0,-105.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":28.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Fiora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":160,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":160,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":160,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":160,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":8.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.5,"upper":46.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.5,-82.0,-269.0,-292.5,-267.0,-359.0,-320.0,-318.0,-333.5,-639.5,-865.5,-735.0,-963.0,-1325.0,-1480.0,-1712.0,-1975.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.5,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1975,"desc":"Their spike: -1975g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":355,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:55 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Olaf","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":114,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":114,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":114,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":114,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":9.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.4,"upper":46.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-76.0,-49.0,-90.0,-299.0,-366.5,-444.5,-564.0,-587.0,-816.5,-1085.0,-1345.0,-1503.0,-1808.5,-1796.0,-2335.5,-1582.5,-1495.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.5,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-2335,"desc":"Their spike: -2335g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":358,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:58 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Warwick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":72,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":72,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":72,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":72,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":9.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.2,"upper":49.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-58.0,-74.0,-121.5,-93.0,-263.5,-401.5,-493.5,-504.0,-542.5,-792.0,-1016.5,-1358.5,-1616.5,-1390.0,-1338.0,-862.5,-564.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":41.7,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":84,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (84% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1616,"desc":"Their spike: -1616g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":355,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:55 (fast: 5:22)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":43,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":43,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":43,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":43,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":10.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":24.4,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-60.0,-108.0,-234.0,-288.0,-266.0,-458.0,-534.0,-705.0,-774.0,-1087.0,-1548.0,-1507.0,-1624.0,-1702.0,-2394.0,-2514.5,-3253.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":11,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-3253,"desc":"Their spike: -3253g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":351,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:51 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Ryze","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":44,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":44,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":44,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":44,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":11.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":36.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":36.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":23.8,"upper":51.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[50.5,-13.0,-12.5,20.0,104.5,158.5,216.0,136.5,57.0,12.0,190.0,455.0,229.0,8.0,48.0,-703.5,-707.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.8,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-707,"desc":"Their spike: -707g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"XinZhao","enemy":"Kled","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":63,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":63,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":63,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":63,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":47.4,"edge_pp":12.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":34.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":34.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":24.3,"upper":47.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-138.0,-247.0,-465.0,-541.0,-542.0,-643.0,-863.0,-953.0,-1337.0,-1725.0,-1697.0,-1871.0,-2105.0,-2028.0,-2068.0,-1896.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-2105,"desc":"Their spike: -2105g at 21:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Winners average 59 CS at 10:00 (losers: 54)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":355,"value":332,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:55 (fast: 5:32)"}]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}