{"matchups":[{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Viego","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":16.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":67.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":67.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":82.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":11.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-10.5,41.0,8.5,3.0,-4.0,99.5,147.0,84.0,33.5,155.0,42.0,206.0,563.0,649.5,248.0,598.0,81.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":78.6,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":13.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":78.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-14.0,-53.0,9.0,-36.0,-88.0,122.0,-130.0,-72.0,232.0,49.0,230.0,-163.5,55.0,-768.0,-636.0,-1424.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":80.0,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Zac","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":12.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":63.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":63.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":78.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,99.5,22.5,93.0,143.0,243.0,207.5,193.5,203.5,279.0,242.5,223.0,421.0,938.0,672.0,813.0,1655.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":11.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":76.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-12.0,-26.0,-89.0,-9.0,16.0,45.0,60.0,237.0,38.0,485.5,419.0,947.0,921.0,431.5,738.0,1123.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.4,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Yorick","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":11.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.3,"upper":77.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[50.5,39.0,45.0,12.0,16.0,17.5,80.0,81.5,158.0,229.5,235.0,313.0,326.0,38.5,-388.5,-880.0,-1013.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Corki","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":44,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":44,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":44,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":44,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":10.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":74.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.5,-23.0,-21.0,-4.0,20.5,-48.0,0.5,-162.0,-94.5,203.0,-8.0,103.0,173.0,-179.0,-170.0,485.0,62.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":85.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":485,"desc":"Your spike: +485g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":353,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:53 (fast: 5:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":8.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.0,"upper":68.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,21.5,60.0,105.0,149.0,224.5,226.5,275.5,203.5,320.0,424.0,489.0,602.5,796.5,878.0,767.5,652.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.1,"n_if_ahead_10":79,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":878,"desc":"Your spike: +878g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":109,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":109,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":109,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":109,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":7.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":67.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,33.0,61.0,92.0,77.0,150.0,112.0,166.0,213.0,199.0,246.0,218.0,452.0,694.0,784.0,776.5,1319.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.6,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1319,"desc":"Your spike: +1319g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Rumble","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.3,"upper":71.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.5,-53.0,-90.5,-143.5,-131.0,-118.0,-18.0,-43.0,-49.5,259.5,17.0,145.0,40.5,135.0,14.0,244.0,-247.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":67.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[38.0,115.0,153.0,200.5,167.5,183.0,114.5,143.0,223.5,131.5,279.0,106.0,273.0,495.5,375.0,581.0,-64.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.2,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":581,"desc":"Your spike: +581g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 64)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":391,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":391,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":391,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":391,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.1,"upper":60.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,9.0,1.0,-1.0,-51.0,-17.0,-57.0,6.0,18.0,-32.5,31.5,119.5,207.0,330.0,198.0,428.0,298.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.2,"n_if_ahead_10":198,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":428,"desc":"Your spike: +428g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":275,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":275,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":275,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":275,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":61.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,12.0,36.0,69.0,124.0,199.0,210.0,270.0,326.0,466.0,474.5,477.5,496.0,600.0,861.0,949.0,1297.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":185,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1297,"desc":"Your spike: +1297g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":595,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":595,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":595,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":595,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.0,"upper":59.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,2.0,31.0,62.0,100.0,165.0,144.0,178.0,188.0,246.0,288.0,321.0,386.0,661.0,572.0,925.0,837.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.6,"n_if_ahead_10":339,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":925,"desc":"Your spike: +925g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Twitch","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":71.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,43.0,144.5,214.5,197.5,243.5,213.0,203.0,249.0,477.5,235.5,552.5,640.0,909.0,1348.0,1359.0,1082.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.2,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Nunu","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":71.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[52.5,104.0,34.0,122.0,165.5,247.0,329.5,348.5,400.0,601.5,758.5,682.0,978.0,1509.0,1771.0,1325.5,815.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":584,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":584,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":584,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":584,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":19,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.8,"upper":59.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-1.5,20.0,25.0,25.0,14.0,45.0,106.5,129.5,133.0,255.0,369.0,369.0,506.0,510.0,522.0,495.0,342.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.7,"n_if_ahead_10":334,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":522,"desc":"Your spike: +522g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":679,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":679,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":679,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":679,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":19,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.1,"upper":59.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[37.0,92.0,172.0,210.0,296.0,365.0,404.0,481.0,518.0,647.0,797.0,927.0,1043.0,1225.0,1635.0,1771.5,1930.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":486,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1930,"desc":"Your spike: +1930g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":69.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.5,103.5,176.0,212.5,268.5,221.0,101.0,108.0,156.0,313.5,492.0,552.0,503.0,966.0,752.0,1934.0,1656.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.4,"n_if_ahead_10":26,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1934,"desc":"Your spike: +1934g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Sett","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.8,"upper":70.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,88.0,150.0,198.0,133.0,180.0,77.0,-17.0,154.0,307.0,322.0,352.0,1061.5,898.5,894.0,973.5,908.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":82.4,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Karma","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.9,"upper":68.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.5,76.0,85.0,108.5,182.5,195.5,227.0,368.5,272.5,620.0,706.0,605.5,1197.5,1582.0,1977.5,3222.0,3549.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":74.1,"n_if_ahead_10":27,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":50,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (50% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":3549,"desc":"Your spike: +3549g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 64)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":95,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":95,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":95,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":95,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":64.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,68.0,107.0,181.0,153.0,256.0,190.0,289.0,322.0,355.0,443.0,417.0,356.0,175.0,321.0,236.0,103.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":57,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":443,"desc":"Your spike: +443g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":300,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":300,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":300,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":300,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":60.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,43.5,114.0,156.5,270.0,332.5,398.5,504.5,546.5,669.5,759.0,837.0,921.0,997.0,1224.5,865.0,729.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.7,"n_if_ahead_10":230,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1224,"desc":"Your spike: +1224g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":538,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":538,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":538,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":538,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.4,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-35.0,-64.5,-89.0,-94.0,-134.0,-148.0,-202.5,-237.0,-286.0,-335.0,-315.0,-288.5,-255.0,-217.0,-195.0,-317.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.5,"n_if_ahead_10":209,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-335,"desc":"Their spike: -335g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Varus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":67.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-31.0,-52.0,-98.0,-143.5,-129.5,-290.5,-228.5,-224.0,-284.5,-449.0,-331.5,-493.0,-417.0,-256.0,-403.0,-327.5,29.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-493,"desc":"Their spike: -493g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":65,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":65,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":65,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":65,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-18.0,-2.0,-39.0,-141.0,-283.0,-328.0,-269.0,-369.0,-463.0,-314.0,-575.0,-885.0,-696.0,-921.0,-277.0,-1128.0,-1836.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1836,"desc":"Their spike: -1836g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":358,"value":327,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:58 (fast: 5:27)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":116,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":116,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":116,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":116,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":62.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.5,81.0,163.5,242.0,295.5,313.5,330.0,279.5,204.5,299.0,444.0,421.0,258.0,204.0,59.0,-93.0,-446.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-446,"desc":"Their spike: -446g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":73,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":73,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":73,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":73,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.1,"upper":64.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,102.0,249.0,262.0,355.0,427.0,435.0,362.0,373.0,459.0,433.0,484.0,364.0,177.0,206.0,155.0,373.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":32,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (32% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":484,"desc":"Your spike: +484g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":300,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":300,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":300,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":300,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.7,"upper":58.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.0,17.5,84.5,93.0,150.0,201.5,251.0,254.5,325.0,356.5,570.5,734.0,839.0,912.0,1107.5,1206.0,1437.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":192,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1437,"desc":"Your spike: +1437g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":175,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":175,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":175,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":175,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,40.0,54.0,74.0,116.0,149.0,154.0,177.0,182.0,352.0,407.0,469.0,438.5,602.5,750.0,1110.0,1628.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":105,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1628,"desc":"Your spike: +1628g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:19)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":478,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":478,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":478,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":478,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":57.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-13.0,6.5,-2.5,18.0,21.5,36.5,22.0,66.5,62.5,84.5,91.5,129.5,205.0,145.5,460.0,399.5,513.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":251,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":513,"desc":"Your spike: +513g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":128,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":128,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":128,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":128,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":61.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.5,12.0,17.5,62.0,32.5,13.0,-57.5,-76.0,-27.5,-37.0,-62.5,-150.0,-73.0,-112.0,77.0,397.0,360.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":397,"desc":"Your spike: +397g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":829,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":829,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":829,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":829,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.7,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,70.0,120.0,124.0,167.0,208.0,230.0,263.0,338.0,475.0,530.5,507.5,401.0,460.5,401.0,515.0,315.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":509,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":530,"desc":"Your spike: +530g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Brand","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":61.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-5.0,-18.0,-22.0,-6.0,72.0,146.0,146.0,177.0,337.0,378.0,390.5,674.5,889.5,983.0,1254.0,1061.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":75,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":39,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (39% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1254,"desc":"Your spike: +1254g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1123,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1123,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1123,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":55.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-4.0,14.0,43.0,60.0,124.0,146.0,150.0,184.0,237.0,305.5,288.0,398.0,518.0,671.0,619.5,844.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":661,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":844,"desc":"Your spike: +844g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1112,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1112,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1112,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.7,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[23.0,74.0,132.0,160.5,193.0,244.5,272.0,347.5,367.0,431.0,498.0,556.0,571.5,623.0,719.0,802.0,768.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.0,"n_if_ahead_10":765,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":802,"desc":"Your spike: +802g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.7,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,31.0,10.0,-24.0,1.0,7.5,-37.0,-110.5,-21.5,-7.0,-80.0,-356.0,-304.0,-63.5,-117.0,21.0,153.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.5,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-356,"desc":"Their spike: -356g at 15:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":68,"desc":"Winners average 68 CS at 10:00 (losers: 60)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":569,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":569,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":569,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":569,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,68.0,138.0,178.0,265.0,298.0,335.0,379.0,394.0,418.0,427.0,457.0,560.0,554.0,511.5,606.0,376.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":411,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":606,"desc":"Your spike: +606g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":695,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":695,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":695,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":695,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-24.0,-26.0,-17.0,-52.0,-8.0,-9.0,-11.0,-1.0,2.0,-46.0,23.5,26.0,-18.5,-35.0,-59.0,-46.0,-27.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.6,"n_if_ahead_10":348,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":100,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":100,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":100,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":100,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":61.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.5,20.0,46.5,78.0,82.0,137.5,135.0,191.0,189.5,342.0,149.5,173.5,378.0,353.0,118.0,267.0,293.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":60,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":378,"desc":"Your spike: +378g at 18:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 67)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":193,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":193,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":193,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":193,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,10.0,63.0,108.0,174.0,221.0,185.0,221.0,246.0,279.0,357.0,583.0,689.5,616.0,1040.0,1255.5,1233.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.0,"n_if_ahead_10":115,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1255,"desc":"Your spike: +1255g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Hwei","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":615,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":615,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":615,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":615,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,14.0,47.0,56.0,85.0,121.0,163.0,162.0,149.0,201.0,197.0,192.0,309.0,447.0,702.0,879.5,1031.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":356,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1031,"desc":"Your spike: +1031g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":526,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":526,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":526,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":526,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.5,44.5,84.5,116.0,177.0,211.0,230.0,240.0,261.0,272.5,294.0,410.0,456.0,435.0,618.0,774.0,738.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":343,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":774,"desc":"Your spike: +774g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":509,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":509,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":509,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":509,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":55.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-12.0,-8.0,-20.0,-32.0,9.0,3.0,1.0,31.0,45.0,25.0,-18.0,-18.5,188.0,211.0,468.5,367.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.4,"n_if_ahead_10":263,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":468,"desc":"Your spike: +468g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":572,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":572,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":572,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":572,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,32.0,47.5,60.5,91.0,97.0,115.0,180.0,181.0,194.0,198.5,190.5,100.0,289.5,240.0,-47.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":325,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Singed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":43,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":43,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":43,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":19,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":43,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.8,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,102.0,104.0,222.0,180.0,222.0,418.0,626.0,528.0,595.0,1112.0,1013.0,1675.0,1372.0,2175.5,2270.0,1376.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.1,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":2270,"desc":"Your spike: +2270g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":264,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":264,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":264,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":264,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":57.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,18.0,58.0,57.5,76.0,96.5,132.5,179.0,199.0,223.0,391.5,408.5,516.0,459.0,467.0,462.0,294.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":162,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":516,"desc":"Your spike: +516g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1088,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1088,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1088,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1088,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,90.5,124.0,155.5,197.5,204.0,268.0,304.5,318.0,348.0,416.5,464.0,623.0,784.0,877.0,797.0,1126.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":673,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1126,"desc":"Your spike: +1126g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":421,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":421,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":421,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":421,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-1.0,-47.0,-86.0,-168.0,-278.0,-313.0,-326.0,-329.0,-465.0,-614.0,-710.0,-903.0,-870.0,-1078.0,-758.0,-1005.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.5,"n_if_ahead_10":162,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1078,"desc":"Their spike: -1078g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Ahri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1508,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1508,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1508,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1508,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,41.5,71.0,99.5,125.5,144.5,154.5,183.5,164.0,252.0,310.0,342.5,459.0,655.0,762.0,885.0,1038.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":884,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1038,"desc":"Your spike: +1038g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1177,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1177,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1177,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1177,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":53.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,68.0,122.0,136.0,140.0,159.0,171.0,168.0,166.0,184.5,210.0,228.0,249.5,284.0,296.0,353.0,298.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":668,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":353,"desc":"Your spike: +353g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":497,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":497,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":497,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":497,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,54.0,62.0,69.0,83.0,85.0,51.0,73.0,95.0,92.0,134.5,129.0,86.0,165.0,142.0,96.0,3.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.4,"n_if_ahead_10":269,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":439,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":439,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":439,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":439,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-18.0,-11.0,28.0,55.0,68.0,55.0,48.0,78.0,20.0,112.0,91.0,167.5,375.0,305.0,484.0,428.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":235,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":484,"desc":"Your spike: +484g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":678,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":678,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":678,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":678,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,3.5,5.0,12.0,44.5,101.5,151.0,151.0,139.5,144.0,165.5,150.0,145.0,133.5,122.0,121.5,167.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":390,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":624,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":624,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":624,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":624,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,14.0,-0.5,-60.0,-29.0,-30.5,-43.0,-0.5,3.0,17.5,-57.0,-83.0,-72.5,-106.0,7.0,-28.0,-122.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.1,"n_if_ahead_10":313,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":21,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.5,"upper":65.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-4.0,5.0,67.0,121.5,118.0,184.0,149.5,262.5,191.5,251.0,359.5,297.5,282.0,747.0,335.0,1188.0,1111.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":62,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":62,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":62,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":62,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.9,"upper":62.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.5,-52.0,-99.0,-98.0,-80.0,-70.5,-27.0,-59.5,-133.5,88.0,-130.5,-155.5,-34.0,0.5,-95.0,-226.0,-102.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.7,"n_if_ahead_10":30,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":353,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:53 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":112,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":112,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":112,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.9,"upper":59.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[30.0,133.0,160.0,154.0,237.0,259.5,206.0,230.5,207.5,370.0,415.0,449.0,497.0,326.5,306.5,-8.0,-306.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.9,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":497,"desc":"Your spike: +497g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":20,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.2,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-45.5,-1.5,31.5,-4.0,121.0,178.0,32.5,-76.5,54.0,517.0,707.0,406.5,430.0,249.5,-459.5,-1361.5,-1823.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":81.2,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":397,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":397,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":397,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":397,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[46.0,56.0,35.0,-17.0,-93.0,-133.0,-150.0,-178.0,-187.0,-193.5,-296.5,-234.0,-120.5,-83.0,-202.0,53.0,100.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.9,"n_if_ahead_10":169,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":87,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (87% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":623,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":623,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":623,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":623,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-30.0,-72.0,-64.0,-86.0,-87.0,-99.0,-140.0,-137.0,-116.0,-66.0,-44.0,-104.0,-39.0,178.5,260.0,273.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":275,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":529,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":529,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":529,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":529,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.3,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[58.0,138.0,229.0,325.0,438.0,500.0,560.0,589.0,644.0,745.0,911.0,937.0,856.0,918.5,766.0,532.5,-14.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.4,"n_if_ahead_10":417,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":937,"desc":"Your spike: +937g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":705,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":705,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":705,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":705,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,38.0,70.0,82.0,105.0,139.0,121.0,129.0,122.0,81.5,127.5,156.0,233.0,368.0,511.5,653.5,938.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":396,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":938,"desc":"Your spike: +938g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":154,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":154,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":154,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":154,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":57.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,28.0,3.5,-20.5,-74.0,-30.5,-79.0,-110.5,-151.0,-213.0,-383.0,-361.0,-609.0,-654.0,-500.5,-743.0,-659.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.7,"n_if_ahead_10":67,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-743,"desc":"Their spike: -743g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:22)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1231,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1231,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1231,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1231,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,126.0,168.0,190.0,195.0,212.0,223.0,247.0,252.0,204.0,222.0,190.0,257.0,263.5,176.0,41.0,96.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":731,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Renekton","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.3,"upper":63.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,70.0,79.0,102.0,53.0,26.0,63.0,12.0,-25.0,-49.0,55.0,-37.0,-358.0,-79.0,-418.0,423.0,-850.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-850,"desc":"Their spike: -850g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":329,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:29)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1175,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1175,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1175,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1175,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,50.0,86.0,103.0,107.0,105.0,93.0,136.0,153.0,182.0,164.5,173.5,227.5,132.5,144.0,105.0,215.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.1,"n_if_ahead_10":670,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":541,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":541,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":541,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":541,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.0,-30.0,-58.0,-64.0,-40.0,-35.0,-46.0,-72.0,-56.0,-82.5,-68.5,-43.0,163.5,437.5,681.0,744.0,922.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.7,"n_if_ahead_10":252,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":922,"desc":"Your spike: +922g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":207,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":207,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":207,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":207,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-16.0,-2.0,-17.0,-3.0,-73.0,-58.0,-73.0,-84.0,-39.0,-53.0,-40.0,-66.5,157.5,111.0,207.5,479.0,367.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.1,"n_if_ahead_10":98,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":479,"desc":"Your spike: +479g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":325,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:25)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Gragas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":87,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":87,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":87,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":87,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[36.0,49.0,95.0,94.0,68.0,52.0,36.0,39.0,47.0,78.0,-22.0,116.0,123.5,1.0,-52.5,-24.0,-291.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.2,"n_if_ahead_10":46,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":179,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":179,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":179,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":179,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.8,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,111.0,104.0,71.0,108.0,121.0,83.0,85.0,53.0,22.0,-183.5,-186.0,-252.0,-315.0,-59.0,141.0,195.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":94,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-315,"desc":"Their spike: -315g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1377,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1377,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1377,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":70,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1377,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":13,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":50.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,63.0,44.0,42.0,28.0,9.0,23.0,-11.0,-57.0,-144.0,-213.5,-269.0,-334.0,-387.0,-293.0,-346.0,-455.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":658,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-455,"desc":"Their spike: -455g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Fizz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":663,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":663,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":663,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":663,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.7,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,40.0,22.0,-28.0,15.0,0.0,-17.0,-22.0,-56.0,-96.5,-98.0,-90.0,-134.0,-222.0,-252.5,-355.0,-671.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":318,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-671,"desc":"Their spike: -671g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":513,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":513,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":513,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":513,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.1,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,10.0,7.0,16.0,11.0,41.0,77.0,87.0,85.0,86.0,82.0,94.0,171.5,396.0,487.0,448.0,616.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.2,"n_if_ahead_10":268,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":616,"desc":"Your spike: +616g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":106,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":106,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":106,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":106,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.9,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[17.5,115.0,176.5,187.5,132.0,196.0,108.5,191.0,198.0,163.5,209.0,245.5,48.5,5.0,-183.5,-551.0,-1461.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.1,"n_if_ahead_10":66,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1461,"desc":"Their spike: -1461g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1737,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 28m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":412,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":412,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":412,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":412,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.8,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-23.5,-53.0,-72.0,-47.0,-93.5,-71.0,-104.5,-127.0,-158.0,-136.0,-201.5,-265.5,-361.0,-326.0,-29.0,6.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":191,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-361,"desc":"Their spike: -361g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Neeko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":73,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":73,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":73,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":73,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,20.0,6.0,-61.0,-10.0,-14.0,-40.0,-74.0,8.0,-81.0,89.0,180.0,378.0,994.5,1296.5,792.0,895.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":38,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1296,"desc":"Your spike: +1296g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Karthus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.8,"upper":64.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.5,48.5,155.5,168.0,116.0,254.5,250.5,405.5,552.0,818.0,591.5,660.0,867.0,929.5,988.5,1172.5,471.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.6,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.5,-61.0,-86.0,-103.0,-152.5,-128.0,-24.0,74.5,-101.5,-276.0,-242.0,-120.0,-172.0,93.0,62.5,636.0,-329.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.2,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":636,"desc":"Your spike: +636g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":223,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":223,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":223,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":223,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":6.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.5,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,56.0,84.0,119.0,137.0,165.0,170.0,153.0,177.0,211.0,119.0,217.0,327.0,441.0,598.5,638.5,811.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.0,"n_if_ahead_10":129,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":811,"desc":"Your spike: +811g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Chogath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":99,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":99,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":99,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":99,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":6.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.0,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,56.0,75.0,73.0,70.0,132.0,113.0,163.0,196.0,263.0,87.0,64.0,-139.0,-83.5,238.5,262.5,-149.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.9,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":75,"desc":"Winners average 75 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Zilean","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":50,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":50,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":50,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":50,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":7.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.2,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[37.0,97.0,135.0,212.5,334.5,430.5,492.0,406.5,475.5,459.5,774.5,655.0,1092.0,1488.5,1260.5,1805.5,2085.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2085,"desc":"Your spike: +2085g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":7.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.3,"upper":59.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,28.0,76.0,144.0,162.0,265.0,300.0,322.0,576.0,498.0,441.0,647.0,760.0,1102.0,532.0,1598.5,854.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":13.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.7,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,192.0,146.0,156.0,59.0,-258.0,-347.0,-305.0,-563.0,-393.0,-383.0,-336.0,-941.0,-299.5,191.5,-16.0,-518.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":61,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":61,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":61,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":61,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":13.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.6,"upper":50.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,42.0,49.0,33.0,-2.0,-65.0,-100.0,-213.0,-8.0,18.5,-236.5,-175.5,32.0,-34.0,155.0,130.0,536.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":30,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":536,"desc":"Your spike: +536g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":350,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:50 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":72,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":72,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":72,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":72,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":13.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.2,"upper":49.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-36.5,-21.0,33.5,-68.5,-91.5,-105.0,-180.0,-244.0,-364.5,-424.5,-461.0,-1104.5,-928.0,-1300.0,-1664.0,-1937.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1937,"desc":"Their spike: -1937g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Kennen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":14.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":36.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":36.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":25.6,"upper":49.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.5,3.0,18.0,7.5,23.5,71.0,205.5,129.0,117.0,349.5,191.5,351.0,-53.0,-194.5,-39.5,-59.0,-299.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.4,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":351,"desc":"Your spike: +351g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 64)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Talon","enemy":"Quinn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.1,"edge_pp":15.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.7,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-84.0,-59.0,-49.0,-44.0,-8.0,-86.0,-39.0,36.0,-175.0,-83.0,2.0,98.0,-339.0,-305.0,-199.0,-395.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}