{"matchups":[{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Katarina","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":56,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":56,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":56,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":56,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":11.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":75.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[45.0,-17.0,-50.5,-37.0,-22.5,-102.5,-87.5,-97.0,94.0,-92.0,-47.5,-74.5,-77.0,-546.0,-334.0,-456.0,218.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":79.3,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-546,"desc":"Their spike: -546g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":431,"value":405,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:11 (fast: 6:45)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Varus","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":336,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":336,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":336,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":336,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.4,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.4},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-26.0,-42.0,-75.0,-49.0,-67.0,-85.5,-107.0,-199.5,-173.0,-272.0,-272.0,-450.0,-545.0,-709.0,-853.0,-1177.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.4,"n_if_ahead_10":137,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1177,"desc":"Their spike: -1177g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":433,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:13 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Corki","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":152,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":152,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":152,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":152,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":64.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-19.0,-41.0,-79.0,-83.5,-127.5,-109.5,-40.5,-10.0,0.0,-3.0,-148.0,-322.0,-655.0,-761.0,-691.0,-1488.0,-1183.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.3,"n_if_ahead_10":75,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1488,"desc":"Their spike: -1488g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":432,"value":408,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:12 (fast: 6:48)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Viktor","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":88,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":88,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":88,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":88,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.4,"upper":66.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-7.0,50.0,26.0,56.5,71.0,152.5,122.5,112.5,125.0,212.5,131.0,-83.0,243.0,-34.5,-1.5,99.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":35,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (35% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":427,"value":405,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:07 (fast: 6:45)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Draven","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":388,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":388,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":388,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":388,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.5,"upper":61.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-54.0,-77.5,-148.0,-192.0,-199.5,-222.5,-266.0,-264.0,-350.0,-525.5,-591.0,-789.0,-734.5,-1180.5,-1528.0,-1815.5,-2181.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.9,"n_if_ahead_10":127,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2181,"desc":"Their spike: -2181g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":438,"value":412,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:18 (fast: 6:52)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Jhin","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1226,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1226,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1226,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1226,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":10,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.8,"upper":58.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-47.5,-77.0,-76.0,-82.5,-105.5,-130.0,-146.5,-174.5,-185.0,-239.0,-209.0,-312.0,-500.0,-812.0,-859.0,-986.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":494,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-986,"desc":"Their spike: -986g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":430,"value":405,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:10 (fast: 6:45)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Caitlyn","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1316,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1316,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1316,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1316,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.3,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.0,-52.0,-73.5,-83.0,-99.0,-77.5,-78.0,-63.5,-50.5,-21.0,-22.0,-6.0,-163.5,-295.0,-416.0,-516.0,-791.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.5,"n_if_ahead_10":624,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-791,"desc":"Their spike: -791g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":429,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:09 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Samira","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":371,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":371,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":371,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":371,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.6,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-31.0,-68.0,-121.0,-156.0,-216.0,-245.0,-295.0,-333.0,-339.0,-336.0,-289.0,-379.5,-673.0,-977.0,-1224.5,-1632.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.2,"n_if_ahead_10":133,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1632,"desc":"Their spike: -1632g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":432,"value":409,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:12 (fast: 6:49)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Syndra","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":136,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":136,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":136,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":136,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":62.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.5,-40.5,-90.5,-86.5,-31.0,-37.0,3.0,35.0,50.5,-19.0,-15.0,-130.0,-433.0,-334.5,-468.0,-478.0,-682.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":70,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-682,"desc":"Their spike: -682g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":397,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:37)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1134,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1134,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1134,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1134,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.5,"upper":57.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.5},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-42.0,-67.0,-76.0,-80.5,-62.0,-88.5,-110.5,-102.5,-95.0,-207.0,-277.0,-502.0,-711.0,-1086.0,-1264.5,-1622.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":507,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1622,"desc":"Their spike: -1622g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":434,"value":408,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:14 (fast: 6:48)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Vayne","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":445,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":445,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":445,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":445,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.5,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-35.0,-46.0,-68.0,-33.0,-16.0,-31.0,-8.0,-42.0,-1.0,9.0,3.0,-11.0,-139.0,-242.0,-626.0,-994.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.4,"n_if_ahead_10":213,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-994,"desc":"Their spike: -994g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":434,"value":405,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:14 (fast: 6:45)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1345,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1345,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1345,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1345,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-52.0,-70.0,-97.0,-112.0,-131.0,-154.0,-164.0,-160.0,-175.0,-232.0,-247.0,-390.0,-443.0,-671.0,-820.0,-794.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":567,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-820,"desc":"Their spike: -820g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":431,"value":407,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:11 (fast: 6:47)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Yunara","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":437,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":437,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":437,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":437,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":58.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-28.0,-25.0,-29.0,-37.0,-4.0,0.0,-26.0,-38.0,-34.0,-84.0,-128.0,-369.0,-476.0,-583.0,-892.0,-1305.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":211,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1305,"desc":"Their spike: -1305g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":431,"value":408,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:11 (fast: 6:48)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Senna","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":579,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":579,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":579,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":579,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-13.0,-18.0,47.0,79.0,116.0,166.0,215.0,245.0,317.0,442.5,484.0,496.0,350.0,279.0,264.5,127.0,-214.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.4,"n_if_ahead_10":383,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":496,"desc":"Your spike: +496g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":426,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:06 (fast: 6:44)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Karthus","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.9,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-13.0,-24.5,-34.0,-91.0,-31.5,-58.0,-170.5,-71.0,-106.5,-106.0,-222.0,-193.5,103.0,-89.0,-27.0,-178.0,-918.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":26,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-918,"desc":"Their spike: -918g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":75,"desc":"Winners average 75 CS at 10:00 (losers: 69)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":429,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:09 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Aphelios","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":553,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":553,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":553,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":553,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":57.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-32.0,-49.0,-72.0,-73.0,-96.0,-57.0,-77.0,-86.0,-50.0,-44.0,-119.0,-160.0,-218.0,-553.0,-810.0,-1214.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":248,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1214,"desc":"Their spike: -1214g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":434,"value":410,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:14 (fast: 6:50)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Ashe","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":957,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":957,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":957,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":957,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-25.0,-34.0,-11.0,1.0,38.0,65.0,112.0,153.0,148.0,225.0,310.0,260.0,197.5,135.0,78.0,-25.5,-184.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.2,"n_if_ahead_10":552,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":310,"desc":"Your spike: +310g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":430,"value":406,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:10 (fast: 6:46)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Lux","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":138,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":138,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":138,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":138,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.6,"upper":61.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-15.5,-84.5,-92.5,-69.5,-99.0,-129.0,-159.0,-115.0,-296.5,-580.5,-549.0,-711.0,-959.0,-990.0,-1470.0,-1271.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.3,"n_if_ahead_10":54,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1470,"desc":"Their spike: -1470g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":435,"value":409,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:15 (fast: 6:49)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":61.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-14.0,-59.0,-52.0,-118.0,-126.0,-139.0,-203.0,-203.0,-318.0,-438.0,-462.0,-565.0,-870.0,-1101.0,-1313.5,-1449.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.4,"n_if_ahead_10":46,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1449,"desc":"Their spike: -1449g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":443,"value":419,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:23 (fast: 6:59)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"MissFortune","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":654,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":654,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":654,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":654,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-46.5,-52.5,-54.0,-70.0,-78.5,-77.0,-85.0,-117.5,-214.5,-230.5,-309.0,-394.0,-641.0,-806.0,-1139.5,-1543.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":282,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1543,"desc":"Their spike: -1543g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":435,"value":407,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:15 (fast: 6:47)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Lucian","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":678,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":678,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":678,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":678,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-29.0,-56.0,-99.0,-131.5,-142.5,-166.0,-187.5,-183.5,-203.0,-234.0,-395.0,-426.5,-615.0,-811.0,-982.0,-1345.5,-1359.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.7,"n_if_ahead_10":252,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1359,"desc":"Their spike: -1359g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":439,"value":413,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:19 (fast: 6:53)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Xayah","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":269,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":269,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":269,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":269,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":58.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-26.0,-24.0,-21.0,-32.0,-83.0,-47.0,-30.0,-58.0,-128.0,-172.0,-188.0,-364.5,-748.0,-696.5,-658.0,-742.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":126,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-748,"desc":"Their spike: -748g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":427,"value":402,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:07 (fast: 6:42)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Jinx","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":943,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":943,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":943,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":943,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-18.0,-31.0,-9.0,-10.0,1.0,62.0,67.0,85.0,118.0,125.0,139.0,8.0,-144.5,-215.0,-374.0,-606.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":500,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-606,"desc":"Their spike: -606g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":429,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:09 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Smolder","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":795,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":795,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":795,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":795,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,18.0,44.0,66.0,105.0,147.0,163.0,200.0,237.0,360.0,419.0,388.0,386.0,264.0,-35.0,-384.0,-569.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.5,"n_if_ahead_10":496,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-569,"desc":"Their spike: -569g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":429,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:09 (fast: 6:44)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Zeri","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":310,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":310,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":310,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":310,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.5,-61.5,-88.5,-87.5,-82.0,-90.5,-101.5,-159.0,-195.5,-184.0,-399.5,-510.5,-823.0,-1207.5,-1657.0,-1688.0,-2427.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.9,"n_if_ahead_10":134,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2427,"desc":"Their spike: -2427g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":77,"desc":"Winners average 77 CS at 10:00 (losers: 71)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":428,"value":402,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:08 (fast: 6:42)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Tristana","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":421,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":421,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":421,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":421,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-32.0,-75.0,-120.0,-163.0,-191.0,-232.0,-289.0,-297.0,-379.5,-479.0,-490.0,-824.0,-844.5,-1233.0,-1644.0,-2078.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.7,"n_if_ahead_10":157,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2078,"desc":"Their spike: -2078g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":436,"value":412,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:16 (fast: 6:52)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Mel","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":265,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":265,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":265,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":265,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-54.0,-107.0,-142.0,-118.0,-226.0,-284.0,-320.0,-407.0,-600.0,-722.0,-795.0,-940.5,-1336.0,-1495.0,-1497.0,-1977.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.3,"n_if_ahead_10":86,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1977,"desc":"Their spike: -1977g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":432,"value":406,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:12 (fast: 6:46)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Veigar","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":133,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":133,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":133,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":133,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.3,"upper":58.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.0,21.0,40.0,20.0,47.0,25.0,11.0,69.0,49.0,30.0,-36.0,-86.0,-245.5,-436.5,-757.0,-836.0,-900.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.3,"n_if_ahead_10":70,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-900,"desc":"Their spike: -900g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":426,"value":398,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:06 (fast: 6:38)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":380,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":380,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":380,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":380,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":54.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,10.0,29.5,16.0,40.5,66.5,74.5,37.0,24.0,-6.0,-113.0,-197.0,-259.5,-349.5,-666.0,-661.5,-735.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.1,"n_if_ahead_10":196,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-735,"desc":"Their spike: -735g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":425,"value":401,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:05 (fast: 6:41)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Swain","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":140,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":140,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":140,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":140,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.1,"upper":57.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,27.5,82.0,80.0,84.5,89.5,88.0,1.0,-78.0,-13.0,-52.0,-194.5,-176.0,-385.0,-221.0,-421.5,-464.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":480,"end_time":600,"value":28,"desc":"Most early deaths land 8:00-10:00 (28% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-464,"desc":"Their spike: -464g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":430,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:10 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Xerath","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":102,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":102,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":102,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":102,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,51.0,34.0,43.0,46.0,86.5,26.5,-37.0,-23.0,122.0,146.5,145.5,-95.0,-448.0,-497.0,-462.0,-908.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.0,"n_if_ahead_10":50,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-908,"desc":"Their spike: -908g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":425,"value":396,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:05 (fast: 6:36)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Twitch","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":395,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":395,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":395,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":395,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.0,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-8.0,-16.0,1.0,3.0,17.0,-8.0,8.0,-17.0,40.0,42.0,-29.0,-116.5,-371.0,-806.0,-1126.0,-1683.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.7,"n_if_ahead_10":194,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1683,"desc":"Their spike: -1683g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":74,"desc":"Winners average 74 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":436,"value":408,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:16 (fast: 6:48)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Kalista","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":144,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":144,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":144,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":144,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-38.0,-62.0,-99.0,-136.0,-227.5,-280.0,-360.5,-480.0,-487.0,-557.0,-533.0,-713.0,-1015.0,-1221.5,-1429.0,-1615.0,-2044.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":45,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2044,"desc":"Their spike: -2044g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":445,"value":420,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:25 (fast: 7:00)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Sivir","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":485,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":485,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":485,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":485,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":18,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":52.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-39.0,-68.0,-80.0,-102.0,-124.0,-150.0,-160.0,-163.0,-215.0,-309.0,-455.0,-641.5,-757.0,-1094.0,-1163.0,-1534.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":203,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1534,"desc":"Their spike: -1534g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":430,"value":406,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:10 (fast: 6:46)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":139,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":139,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":139,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":139,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":55.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-14.0,-35.0,-25.0,-31.0,-27.0,-50.0,-34.0,-37.0,74.0,-36.0,-97.0,-228.5,-240.0,-302.0,-445.0,-346.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.5,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-445,"desc":"Their spike: -445g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":430,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:10 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":5.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.9,"upper":63.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[1.0,48.5,-23.0,23.5,1.5,126.5,208.5,118.5,187.5,46.0,-258.5,-158.5,-150.0,-454.5,-866.0,-152.0,-622.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Nilah","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":112,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":112,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":112,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.5,"upper":55.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-9.0,-22.0,-30.5,-25.0,-47.5,-47.0,-103.0,-117.5,-272.0,-381.0,-278.0,-390.0,-319.0,-353.0,-409.0,-828.0,-1703.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":46,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":40,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (40% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1703,"desc":"Their spike: -1703g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":435,"value":405,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:15 (fast: 6:45)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Hwei","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":110,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":110,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":110,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":110,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.5,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,1.5,54.0,90.0,93.5,102.5,178.0,187.5,151.0,72.5,-88.0,-148.0,-311.0,-483.0,-588.0,-882.5,-675.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-882,"desc":"Their spike: -882g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":432,"value":404,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:12 (fast: 6:44)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":9.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.6,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,7.0,-8.5,55.5,122.5,95.0,149.0,206.5,260.5,357.5,185.0,191.5,65.0,-517.0,-287.0,-716.5,-1043.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":38,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1043,"desc":"Their spike: -1043g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":396,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:36)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Brand","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":178,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":178,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":178,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":178,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":9.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.2,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,-7.5,5.0,20.0,31.5,54.0,49.0,-23.0,-9.0,48.5,61.0,39.0,48.0,127.0,74.0,-104.5,-337.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.8,"n_if_ahead_10":89,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-337,"desc":"Their spike: -337g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":430,"value":407,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:10 (fast: 6:47)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":72,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":72,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":72,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":72,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":11.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.0,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.5,-14.0,-82.5,-71.0,-127.5,-118.0,-135.5,-106.5,-99.0,-153.0,-287.5,-319.0,-376.5,-386.0,-223.0,-199.5,-542.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":40.0,"n_if_ahead_10":30,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":37,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (37% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-542,"desc":"Their spike: -542g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":420,"value":399,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:00 (fast: 6:39)"}]},{"champion":"Seraphine","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"BOTTOM","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":52.8,"edge_pp":12.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.5,"upper":52.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.5,29.5,60.0,166.0,181.5,263.5,245.5,246.5,374.5,473.0,378.0,181.5,391.0,112.0,-69.0,-594.0,-572.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.2,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 27 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-594,"desc":"Their spike: -594g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1800,"desc":"Close before 30 min - wins avg 30m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":424,"value":405,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:04 (fast: 6:45)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}