{"matchups":[{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":15.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.4,"upper":76.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-47.0,-12.0,38.5,78.0,27.0,-71.5,-6.0,91.0,138.0,-9.5,-110.0,-190.5,-328.5,-221.0,-213.5,174.0,-290.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":87,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (87% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-328,"desc":"Their spike: -328g at 18:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Skarner","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":11.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.6,"upper":73.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,98.5,161.0,259.0,432.0,457.0,509.0,501.0,672.5,626.0,774.5,638.0,731.5,436.0,1239.0,989.0,1373.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":27,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":33,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (33% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1373,"desc":"Your spike: +1373g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Smolder","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":74,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":74,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":74,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":74,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":10.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":69.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.5,-3.5,36.0,127.0,194.0,258.5,358.0,488.0,592.5,691.0,821.5,729.5,731.0,849.5,303.5,158.0,-354.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":60,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":849,"desc":"Your spike: +849g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Sejuani","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":76,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":76,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":76,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":76,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":10.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":69.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,48.5,165.5,222.5,297.5,384.0,441.0,419.5,511.0,535.5,492.5,654.5,535.0,522.0,595.5,635.0,284.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.9,"n_if_ahead_10":57,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":654,"desc":"Your spike: +654g at 15:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":81,"desc":"Winners average 81 CS at 10:00 (losers: 69)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Poppy","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":212,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":212,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":212,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":212,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":10.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.2,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,40.0,98.0,165.5,176.5,251.5,306.5,324.0,361.0,483.0,511.0,471.0,625.5,737.0,764.0,773.0,913.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":149,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":913,"desc":"Your spike: +913g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Zac","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":99,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":99,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":99,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":99,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":9.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":67.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,42.0,70.0,120.0,207.0,223.0,166.0,161.0,117.0,196.0,60.5,-58.0,-199.0,-314.0,-122.5,-219.5,-510.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.1,"n_if_ahead_10":56,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-510,"desc":"Their spike: -510g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1734,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 27m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":420,"desc":"Best trade window at 7:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Trundle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":153,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":153,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":153,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":153,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":8.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":64.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-36.0,12.0,57.0,74.0,73.0,137.0,171.0,110.0,181.0,185.0,149.0,-137.0,-179.0,-282.5,-403.0,-464.0,-730.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":85,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-730,"desc":"Their spike: -730g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Rengar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":7.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":69.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-61.0,-27.0,-10.0,48.5,-16.0,-28.5,70.0,-88.0,-183.5,12.5,173.0,104.5,-356.0,-1382.5,-1238.0,-1423.0,835.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1423,"desc":"Their spike: -1423g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Aurora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":207,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":207,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":207,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":207,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":6.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":62.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-56.0,-72.0,-72.0,-109.0,-156.0,-189.0,-214.0,-155.0,-250.0,-207.5,-282.5,-218.0,-326.0,-380.0,-451.0,-353.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.0,"n_if_ahead_10":93,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-451,"desc":"Their spike: -451g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":587,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":587,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":587,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":587,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":6.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,34.0,131.0,213.0,274.0,349.0,362.0,411.0,436.0,468.0,551.5,596.0,539.0,436.5,395.0,556.0,303.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.3,"n_if_ahead_10":393,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":596,"desc":"Your spike: +596g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Akshan","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-49.0,-96.0,31.0,41.0,-123.0,-142.0,-184.0,-52.0,-160.0,-195.0,-49.0,-401.0,-409.5,-1162.5,-1115.5,-751.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Graves","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.5,"upper":71.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-52.0,4.0,0.0,63.0,51.0,-21.0,128.5,200.5,245.0,360.5,327.5,572.0,114.5,398.0,-169.0,-629.0,-374.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Gnar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":584,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":584,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":584,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":584,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.5,"upper":57.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-30.5,0.0,36.0,50.5,73.5,65.0,45.5,35.0,49.0,2.0,-37.0,-58.0,-173.5,-229.5,-291.0,-244.5,29.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":311,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Maokai","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":56,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":56,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":56,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":56,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.7,"upper":66.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.5,61.0,130.0,187.0,271.5,372.0,456.0,495.5,551.0,677.5,754.0,671.0,1024.0,1244.0,1287.0,1551.0,1854.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":44,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1854,"desc":"Your spike: +1854g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Vayne","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":330,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":330,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":330,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":330,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":58.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-82.0,-65.5,-29.0,-11.5,48.5,81.0,76.5,107.5,213.0,295.0,387.0,407.5,262.5,106.5,53.5,-215.0,-379.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":197,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":407,"desc":"Your spike: +407g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Sylas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":179,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":179,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":179,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":179,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,7.0,30.0,16.0,53.0,61.0,76.0,41.0,166.0,201.0,274.5,304.0,413.0,521.0,307.0,214.0,380.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":521,"desc":"Your spike: +521g at 21:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Renekton","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":898,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":898,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":898,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":898,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,27.5,99.0,129.0,184.5,172.5,137.0,107.0,64.0,67.0,17.0,-37.0,-149.0,-201.5,-197.0,-284.0,-376.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.2,"n_if_ahead_10":479,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-376,"desc":"Their spike: -376g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":561,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":561,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":561,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":561,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,54.0,164.0,205.0,246.0,288.0,324.0,355.0,423.0,365.5,423.5,461.0,341.0,227.5,406.0,382.5,315.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":405,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":461,"desc":"Your spike: +461g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"KSante","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1079,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1079,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1079,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1079,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,17.0,72.0,97.0,94.0,79.0,65.0,11.0,-25.0,-99.0,-227.0,-215.5,-291.0,-163.0,-27.0,170.5,148.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.7,"n_if_ahead_10":533,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":457,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":457,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":457,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":457,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-28.0,16.0,31.0,65.0,97.0,76.0,135.0,70.0,66.0,47.0,63.0,-38.5,-78.0,-200.0,-236.5,-220.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":242,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Quinn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":176,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":176,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":176,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":176,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-44.0,-21.0,-2.5,67.0,140.5,136.5,171.5,244.5,327.0,499.0,530.0,474.0,379.5,270.0,69.0,-394.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.2,"n_if_ahead_10":111,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":530,"desc":"Your spike: +530g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Malphite","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1087,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1087,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1087,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1087,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,74.0,170.0,224.0,295.0,348.0,421.0,468.0,513.0,598.0,680.0,748.0,831.0,855.0,982.0,1109.5,1367.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":862,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1367,"desc":"Your spike: +1367g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":783,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":783,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":783,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":783,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-12.0,24.0,46.0,59.0,62.0,75.0,84.0,43.0,-15.0,-143.5,-193.0,-492.0,-848.0,-1188.0,-1539.0,-1932.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.1,"n_if_ahead_10":412,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1932,"desc":"Their spike: -1932g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Gwen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":483,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":483,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":483,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":483,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,8.0,80.0,139.0,171.0,217.0,248.0,279.0,315.0,364.0,346.0,345.0,173.0,-85.0,-249.0,-399.5,-637.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.1,"n_if_ahead_10":311,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-637,"desc":"Their spike: -637g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1694,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 28m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Jax","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":824,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":824,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":824,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":824,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,32.0,84.0,131.0,186.0,237.5,280.0,296.0,292.0,325.0,385.0,383.5,257.0,138.5,25.0,-32.0,51.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.9,"n_if_ahead_10":506,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":385,"desc":"Your spike: +385g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Chogath","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":437,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":437,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":437,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":437,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.0,14.0,79.0,94.0,146.0,202.0,281.0,302.0,330.0,323.5,368.0,338.5,362.0,207.0,-31.0,-56.5,-222.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":295,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":368,"desc":"Your spike: +368g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Volibear","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":477,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":477,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":477,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":477,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":54.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.0,-14.0,43.0,79.0,88.0,67.0,57.0,108.0,132.0,227.5,229.0,236.0,127.0,61.0,-102.0,-59.0,-156.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.1,"n_if_ahead_10":263,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":22,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":65.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,24.0,66.5,50.0,212.5,318.5,205.0,538.5,375.5,379.0,521.5,484.0,569.0,420.5,443.0,156.0,-127.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1006,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1006,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1006,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1006,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,3.5,47.0,68.5,103.5,117.5,124.5,127.0,104.0,53.0,-5.5,-76.0,-88.0,-214.5,-274.0,-257.0,-176.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":568,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":490,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":490,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":490,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":490,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-15.0,0.5,33.0,16.5,-10.5,-16.5,-53.0,-97.0,-154.0,-156.0,-216.0,-378.5,-672.0,-1041.0,-1244.0,-1121.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.4,"n_if_ahead_10":224,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1244,"desc":"Their spike: -1244g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Darius","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1066,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1066,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1066,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1066,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-20.0,10.0,21.0,5.0,-8.0,-28.0,-13.0,-35.5,-94.5,-239.0,-265.0,-442.0,-491.0,-426.0,-610.0,-749.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.4,"n_if_ahead_10":514,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-749,"desc":"Their spike: -749g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Sett","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":844,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":844,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":844,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":844,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":52.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-8.0,35.5,51.0,54.5,94.0,92.5,60.5,84.0,29.0,5.0,-37.0,-77.0,-151.5,-308.5,-463.0,-568.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.6,"n_if_ahead_10":447,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-568,"desc":"Their spike: -568g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Jayce","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":859,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":859,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":859,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":859,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-59.0,-48.0,-42.0,-58.0,-47.0,-70.0,-85.0,-95.0,-127.0,-195.0,-291.0,-314.0,-524.0,-779.0,-853.0,-1149.0,-1112.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":375,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1149,"desc":"Their spike: -1149g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Kled","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":317,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":317,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":317,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":317,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-14.0,-9.0,-40.0,-80.0,-70.0,-79.0,-92.0,-89.0,-159.5,-386.5,-330.0,-463.0,-531.0,-558.0,-484.5,-498.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":146,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-558,"desc":"Their spike: -558g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Udyr","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":161,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":161,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":161,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":161,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-43.0,-30.0,-35.0,-50.0,10.0,58.0,45.0,52.0,58.0,16.0,117.5,71.0,86.0,220.5,135.0,356.0,105.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":85,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":356,"desc":"Your spike: +356g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Garen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1045,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1045,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1045,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1045,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,43.0,117.0,182.0,253.0,290.0,310.0,344.0,367.0,430.0,394.0,384.0,204.0,-2.5,-213.0,-439.5,-736.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.7,"n_if_ahead_10":697,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-736,"desc":"Their spike: -736g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1783,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 30m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":127,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":127,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":127,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":127,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,5.0,25.0,92.0,58.0,66.0,162.0,38.0,101.0,-68.0,-105.0,-164.0,-306.0,-595.5,-604.0,-750.0,-838.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.5,"n_if_ahead_10":66,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-838,"desc":"Their spike: -838g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Ornn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":958,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":958,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":958,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":958,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.0,35.5,89.5,115.0,133.0,144.0,138.5,168.0,176.0,126.0,115.0,52.0,152.0,181.0,326.0,380.0,492.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.4,"n_if_ahead_10":566,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":492,"desc":"Your spike: +492g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Urgot","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":478,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":478,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":478,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":478,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-9.5,19.0,33.5,96.5,135.5,114.5,147.5,196.0,177.5,115.5,41.5,-280.5,-466.5,-571.0,-711.5,-735.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":281,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-735,"desc":"Their spike: -735g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1453,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1453,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1453,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1453,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":50.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,18.0,59.0,63.0,64.0,45.0,10.0,-40.0,-50.0,-143.5,-282.0,-321.0,-525.0,-590.0,-571.0,-472.5,-628.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.6,"n_if_ahead_10":692,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-628,"desc":"Their spike: -628g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Akali","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":390,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":390,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":390,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":390,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.3,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-9.5,0.0,9.5,-31.5,-38.5,-36.0,-110.0,-153.0,-278.5,-369.5,-448.5,-638.0,-778.0,-950.0,-931.0,-1028.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":168,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1028,"desc":"Their spike: -1028g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Azir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":17,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.7,"upper":66.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.0,-42.0,35.0,22.0,131.0,174.0,168.0,113.0,149.0,-49.0,-17.0,240.0,211.0,-258.5,-484.5,-1019.5,-2154.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Yorick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":665,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":665,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":665,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":665,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.3,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,8.0,28.0,28.0,25.0,-23.0,-65.0,-115.0,-168.0,-331.0,-475.0,-569.5,-795.0,-889.5,-1101.0,-1322.0,-1566.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":277,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1566,"desc":"Their spike: -1566g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":125,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":125,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":125,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":125,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,48.0,136.0,242.0,326.0,319.0,292.0,405.0,397.0,419.0,496.0,397.0,429.0,554.0,524.0,220.0,392.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.8,"n_if_ahead_10":84,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":554,"desc":"Your spike: +554g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":540,"desc":"Best trade window at 9:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":946,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":946,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":946,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":946,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,8.0,90.0,127.5,145.5,119.5,84.5,30.0,-22.5,-150.0,-335.0,-452.0,-622.0,-687.5,-720.0,-732.0,-908.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.4,"n_if_ahead_10":469,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-908,"desc":"Their spike: -908g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Singed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":407,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":407,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":407,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":407,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.1,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-1.0,49.0,106.0,126.0,158.0,154.0,222.0,210.0,311.0,386.0,450.5,450.0,331.5,191.5,245.5,55.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.9,"n_if_ahead_10":242,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":450,"desc":"Your spike: +450g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Illaoi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":362,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":362,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":362,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":362,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.7,"upper":52.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-30.0,-21.5,-9.0,-42.0,-134.5,-170.0,-218.0,-216.0,-381.0,-636.0,-742.0,-908.5,-995.0,-1127.0,-886.5,-952.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":146,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1127,"desc":"Their spike: -1127g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Kayle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":428,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":428,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":428,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":428,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.0,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,54.0,167.5,255.0,357.0,433.5,481.0,518.5,539.5,611.0,761.5,761.0,609.0,473.0,320.0,264.0,-55.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":320,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":761,"desc":"Your spike: +761g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Gragas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":441,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":441,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":441,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":441,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.0,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,54.0,119.0,149.0,198.0,236.0,249.0,257.0,249.0,263.0,294.5,272.5,336.5,343.5,473.0,594.0,567.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.1,"n_if_ahead_10":282,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":594,"desc":"Your spike: +594g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Warwick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":229,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":229,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":229,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":229,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-45.0,-12.0,6.0,-18.0,24.0,15.0,9.0,30.0,-50.0,-144.0,-268.5,-397.5,-23.5,-328.0,-169.0,-329.0,-1049.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":110,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1049,"desc":"Their spike: -1049g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":290,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":290,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":290,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":290,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.5,-8.0,52.0,81.5,117.0,118.5,248.5,225.0,225.5,303.5,358.0,301.5,183.0,99.0,-144.0,-243.0,-336.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":173,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":358,"desc":"Your spike: +358g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Camille","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":428,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":428,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":428,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":428,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,0.0,27.0,68.0,90.5,133.5,148.0,199.0,193.0,215.0,253.0,324.0,185.0,105.0,-190.0,-209.0,-366.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.5,"n_if_ahead_10":259,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-366,"desc":"Their spike: -366g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Teemo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":673,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":673,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":673,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":673,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":50.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-35.0,3.0,27.0,84.0,105.0,128.0,125.0,115.0,191.0,250.0,240.0,302.0,330.0,137.0,175.0,224.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.4,"n_if_ahead_10":373,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":330,"desc":"Your spike: +330g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Shyvana","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":23,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.5,"upper":63.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,39.5,136.0,132.5,190.5,101.0,41.0,23.0,96.5,318.5,339.0,622.5,423.0,499.5,-6.0,-133.0,38.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Kayn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":23,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.5,"upper":63.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-45.0,137.0,238.5,295.0,341.5,489.0,397.0,490.5,606.0,710.0,1009.0,944.0,966.0,654.0,1121.0,681.0,1364.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Kennen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":372,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":372,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":372,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":372,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-14.0,-0.5,21.5,45.0,32.0,8.0,-9.5,24.5,9.0,-72.0,-71.0,-218.0,-223.0,-160.0,-249.0,-76.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.7,"n_if_ahead_10":190,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Nasus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":501,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":501,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":501,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":501,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.6,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,78.0,194.0,272.0,378.0,407.0,437.0,399.0,455.0,434.5,479.5,424.0,458.0,370.5,253.0,-4.0,-208.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.4,"n_if_ahead_10":371,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":479,"desc":"Your spike: +479g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Shen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":681,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":681,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":681,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":681,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.0,"upper":50.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,17.0,49.0,70.0,125.0,210.0,266.0,327.0,411.0,523.0,679.0,766.0,935.0,972.0,1149.0,1167.0,973.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.1,"n_if_ahead_10":486,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1167,"desc":"Your spike: +1167g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Fiora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":538,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":538,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":538,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":538,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":50.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-14.0,21.0,52.0,82.5,72.5,40.0,59.5,93.0,63.0,-102.0,-93.0,-177.5,-349.0,-509.0,-803.0,-865.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":292,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-865,"desc":"Their spike: -865g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Zed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":71,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":71,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":71,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":71,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.4,"upper":58.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[49.0,35.0,43.0,26.0,79.0,41.0,16.0,-14.0,-45.0,-71.0,-158.0,-99.0,-152.0,-805.5,-574.0,-1154.0,-915.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1154,"desc":"Their spike: -1154g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":373,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":373,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":373,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":373,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.4,"upper":51.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-26.0,5.0,0.0,21.0,30.0,4.0,-1.0,11.0,2.0,42.0,58.5,-5.0,99.5,3.0,278.0,226.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.4,"n_if_ahead_10":187,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":54,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":54,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":54,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":54,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.7,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-3.0,18.0,-21.0,56.5,65.0,80.5,109.5,31.0,-95.5,128.0,92.0,-55.0,33.0,-150.0,-258.0,256.0,154.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":31,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (31% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Karma","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.6,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-18.5,-7.0,-41.0,-88.5,-39.5,-115.5,-187.0,-102.0,-314.5,-355.0,-275.0,-149.0,66.0,291.0,609.5,211.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":609,"desc":"Your spike: +609g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Varus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":260,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":260,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":260,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":260,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":51.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-76.0,-91.0,-123.0,-147.5,-223.0,-272.5,-309.5,-320.0,-364.5,-525.0,-739.0,-867.0,-1046.0,-1245.5,-1587.0,-1135.5,-1574.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.0,"n_if_ahead_10":79,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1587,"desc":"Their spike: -1587g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Irelia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":767,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":767,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":767,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":767,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":49.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-66.0,-42.0,-62.0,-63.0,-107.0,-161.0,-229.0,-299.0,-366.0,-518.0,-816.5,-1001.0,-1349.0,-1556.0,-1741.5,-1697.0,-1899.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":295,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1899,"desc":"Their spike: -1899g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Galio","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":265,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":265,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":265,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":265,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,16.0,54.0,49.0,98.0,86.0,132.0,129.0,194.0,153.0,187.0,179.0,262.5,437.0,603.0,1021.0,1335.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.7,"n_if_ahead_10":156,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1335,"desc":"Your spike: +1335g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Sion","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":980,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":980,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":980,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":980,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":48.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,18.0,56.0,68.5,62.5,67.0,69.5,58.5,42.5,-81.0,-196.5,-272.5,-424.0,-534.0,-560.0,-621.0,-596.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.1,"n_if_ahead_10":524,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-621,"desc":"Their spike: -621g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Olaf","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":385,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":385,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":385,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":385,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":50.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-7.0,34.0,23.0,64.0,57.0,20.0,-15.0,-76.0,-89.0,-325.0,-464.0,-666.0,-1000.0,-1033.5,-1094.0,-1095.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.0,"n_if_ahead_10":185,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1095,"desc":"Their spike: -1095g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":140,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":140,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":140,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":140,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.0,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-36.5,-24.5,-31.0,-68.0,-108.0,-56.5,-98.0,-131.5,-176.5,-172.5,-211.5,-111.0,-7.0,-57.0,126.5,611.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.5,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":611,"desc":"Your spike: +611g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Yone","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":846,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":846,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":846,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":846,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":48.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-35.5,-10.0,15.5,52.0,60.0,61.5,40.0,47.5,-7.5,-96.0,-162.0,-230.0,-449.0,-664.0,-892.0,-1013.0,-1150.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.6,"n_if_ahead_10":421,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1150,"desc":"Their spike: -1150g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Ahri","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.7,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-7.0,18.0,18.0,22.0,30.0,-25.0,-20.0,-22.0,-233.0,-173.0,-109.0,-447.0,-577.0,-135.0,-666.5,-167.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.7,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,60.0,115.0,142.0,49.0,72.0,-70.0,-110.0,44.0,-237.0,-248.0,-266.0,-432.0,-710.0,-1206.0,-690.0,-811.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Swain","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":164,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":164,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":164,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":164,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.5,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-18.0,-11.5,-5.5,-4.0,34.0,-20.0,-84.0,-101.5,-141.0,-251.5,-237.5,-426.0,-503.5,-643.0,-81.0,-68.0,-324.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-643,"desc":"Their spike: -643g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Brand","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.7,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-36.5,45.5,71.5,123.0,108.5,95.0,137.0,2.5,148.5,166.0,195.0,126.0,506.0,545.0,370.0,1201.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1201,"desc":"Your spike: +1201g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Viktor","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":5.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.7,"upper":59.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-56.0,-51.0,-18.0,-47.0,-21.0,-42.0,-6.0,3.0,-69.0,-52.0,30.0,-12.0,-404.0,17.0,-130.0,567.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.6,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":244,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":244,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":244,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":244,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":5.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.0,"upper":49.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.5,60.0,133.0,149.0,154.0,174.0,100.0,99.5,111.0,84.0,11.0,-28.5,-108.0,76.0,-9.0,129.0,67.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":136,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Ryze","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":254,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":254,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":254,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":254,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.0,"upper":49.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-40.0,-52.5,-93.0,-108.0,-113.0,-137.5,-57.5,-83.5,-188.5,-185.0,-308.0,-331.5,-557.0,-812.0,-840.0,-1381.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.7,"n_if_ahead_10":115,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1381,"desc":"Their spike: -1381g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Riven","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":590,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":590,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":590,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":590,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.8,"upper":46.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.0,2.0,48.0,93.5,131.5,131.5,118.5,153.0,100.0,108.5,11.0,-17.0,-208.0,-399.0,-708.5,-1074.0,-1027.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.5,"n_if_ahead_10":312,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1074,"desc":"Their spike: -1074g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":93,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":93,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":93,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":93,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":6.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.4,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-55.0,-8.0,4.0,39.0,24.0,73.0,180.0,229.0,346.0,316.0,310.0,274.0,12.0,451.0,246.0,-232.5,-784.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":54,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-784,"desc":"Their spike: -784g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Briar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":25.5,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,104.0,-39.0,-22.0,-190.0,-181.0,-334.0,-415.0,-219.0,-458.0,-615.0,-743.0,-1103.0,-1763.0,-645.5,-964.0,-177.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":25.5,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-42.0,-42.0,-52.0,-257.0,-254.0,-394.0,-501.0,-364.0,-649.0,-1166.0,-1080.0,-1564.0,-1388.0,-1321.0,-2042.5,-2188.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":6,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Anivia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":132,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":132,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":132,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":132,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":7.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.9,"upper":49.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-35.5,-13.5,-41.0,-52.0,-48.5,-110.0,-112.5,-69.5,-200.5,-234.0,-381.5,-404.0,-613.0,-655.0,-557.0,-601.0,-472.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.9,"n_if_ahead_10":54,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-655,"desc":"Their spike: -655g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":182,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":182,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":182,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":182,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":8.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.8,"upper":47.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-53.0,-71.0,-109.5,-154.5,-187.5,-237.5,-306.0,-346.0,-408.5,-579.5,-681.0,-734.5,-889.0,-913.0,-977.0,-1048.0,-872.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":50,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1048,"desc":"Their spike: -1048g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":66,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":66,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":66,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":66,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":9.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.5,"upper":51.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,43.0,112.5,120.5,182.0,186.0,34.5,44.5,36.0,91.0,11.5,38.0,-156.0,-11.0,-11.0,-41.5,9.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.1,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":11.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":24.2,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-53.5,-14.0,63.0,76.5,100.5,131.5,287.0,254.0,156.0,281.0,447.5,189.5,241.0,101.0,418.5,752.5,330.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":752,"desc":"Your spike: +752g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Veigar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":11.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":21.5,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,8.0,51.0,108.0,200.0,162.0,238.0,205.0,255.0,439.0,236.0,294.0,497.0,-388.5,-675.0,-938.0,-1077.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":36.8,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":12.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":36.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":36.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.5,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-80.0,-152.0,-107.5,-218.5,-235.0,-127.0,-205.5,-267.5,-12.0,150.5,31.0,68.0,-170.0,-842.0,-904.5,-1231.0,351.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.1,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"RekSai","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":54,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":54,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":54,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":54,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":13.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":23.8,"upper":48.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,39.0,51.5,130.5,153.5,251.5,250.0,362.0,421.0,352.5,518.0,537.5,294.0,151.5,-346.0,-187.0,114.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.7,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":537,"desc":"Your spike: +537g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":72,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":72,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":72,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":72,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":16.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":31.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":31.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.3,"upper":43.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":39.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-78.5,-105.0,-173.5,-258.5,-309.5,-366.5,-312.0,-395.0,-467.5,-785.0,-901.5,-1081.5,-1436.0,-1540.0,-2088.0,-2235.0,-1619.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.6,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-2235,"desc":"Their spike: -2235g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 61)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Rumble","enemy":"Viego","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":48.7,"edge_pp":22.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":25.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":25.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":13.2,"upper":44.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":15.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-26.0,52.0,57.0,128.0,129.0,7.0,146.0,378.0,128.0,33.0,-14.0,256.0,484.0,141.5,250.5,690.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":33.3,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}