{"matchups":[{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":44,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":44,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":44,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":44,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":16.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.1,"upper":78.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[37.5,83.5,188.0,255.5,306.5,574.0,584.5,517.0,575.0,517.0,708.0,706.0,762.0,1119.0,956.0,907.0,990.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.5,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":1119,"desc":"Your spike: +1119g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 60)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Vi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":14.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":79.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,134.0,285.0,-9.0,259.0,242.0,417.0,78.0,577.0,364.0,453.0,648.0,809.0,300.0,410.0,170.0,26.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Shyvana","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":12.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":74.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[38.0,49.0,69.0,128.5,171.0,75.0,129.5,228.5,231.0,314.5,275.0,294.0,454.0,153.0,-351.5,-194.0,-163.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.9,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":454,"desc":"Your spike: +454g at 18:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Smolder","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":75,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":75,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":75,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":75,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":11.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.0,"upper":71.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,84.0,117.0,239.0,358.0,590.0,586.0,678.0,842.0,1009.0,1113.0,1182.0,1554.5,1862.0,2087.0,2151.0,1085.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":62,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":2151,"desc":"Your spike: +2151g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Katarina","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":11.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":76.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[84.0,52.0,123.0,103.0,-24.0,-54.0,88.0,252.0,109.0,383.0,-1.0,23.0,256.0,167.0,-99.0,690.0,587.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.4,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Udyr","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":113,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":113,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":113,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":113,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":10.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.0,"upper":68.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,14.0,-12.0,-20.0,-4.0,72.0,37.0,111.0,-22.0,98.0,42.5,167.0,205.0,287.0,367.5,533.0,251.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.1,"n_if_ahead_10":56,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":533,"desc":"Your spike: +533g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":64,"desc":"Winners average 64 CS at 10:00 (losers: 57)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Rengar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":9.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":71.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-59.0,-26.0,-244.0,-174.0,-221.0,-136.0,-177.0,-180.0,-131.0,-279.0,-133.0,-197.0,247.0,288.0,29.0,-205.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":121,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":121,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":121,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":121,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":8.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":67.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[76.0,128.0,189.0,255.0,296.0,415.0,472.0,542.0,517.0,395.0,623.0,635.0,700.0,499.0,339.0,68.0,-801.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.4,"n_if_ahead_10":81,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-801,"desc":"Their spike: -801g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Trundle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":189,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":189,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":189,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":189,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.5,"upper":63.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,34.0,155.0,174.0,268.0,303.0,271.0,317.0,309.0,371.0,406.0,419.5,501.0,393.5,341.0,104.0,197.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":117,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":44,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (44% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":501,"desc":"Your spike: +501g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":69.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[59.0,150.5,166.0,139.0,418.5,462.0,364.0,453.5,355.0,594.0,381.5,493.0,147.0,527.0,149.0,533.0,-220.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.7,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":720,"value":594,"desc":"Your spike: +594g at 12:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":114,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":114,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":114,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":114,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":64.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-9.0,137.0,162.0,267.0,292.5,395.5,462.5,569.5,715.0,825.0,1044.0,1152.0,1285.5,1021.5,905.0,705.0,534.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":82,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":1285,"desc":"Your spike: +1285g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Sylas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":64.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[75.0,72.5,91.5,174.5,193.5,252.0,282.5,253.0,304.5,450.0,527.0,529.5,775.5,606.0,725.0,838.5,258.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":75,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":83,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (83% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":838,"desc":"Your spike: +838g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":75,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":75,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":75,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":75,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[36.0,98.0,120.0,143.0,127.0,183.0,221.0,249.0,232.0,176.0,-6.0,32.0,14.5,-82.0,-118.0,-181.0,-682.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.0,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-682,"desc":"Their spike: -682g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1839,"desc":"Close before 30 min - wins avg 30m vs losses 32m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":540,"desc":"Best trade window at 9:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Rumble","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":373,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":373,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":373,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":373,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[49.0,26.0,-5.0,0.0,-21.0,-30.0,-4.0,1.0,-11.0,-2.0,-42.0,-58.5,5.0,-99.5,-3.0,-278.0,-226.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":186,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Yone","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":893,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":893,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":893,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":893,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":14,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,76.0,124.0,146.0,179.0,215.0,263.0,267.0,325.0,327.0,430.0,406.0,344.0,332.0,262.0,60.0,64.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":559,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":430,"desc":"Your spike: +430g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Riven","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":705,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":705,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":705,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":705,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":57.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,92.0,158.0,189.0,241.0,285.0,331.0,323.0,324.0,399.0,373.0,329.0,286.0,242.5,230.0,26.0,-5.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.3,"n_if_ahead_10":444,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":720,"value":399,"desc":"Your spike: +399g at 12:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Sejuani","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":62,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":62,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":62,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":62,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.0,"upper":65.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[68.0,121.0,234.5,368.0,323.0,383.5,341.5,301.0,242.5,404.0,275.0,363.0,17.0,292.0,234.5,400.5,559.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.8,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":38,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (38% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":559,"desc":"Your spike: +559g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":618,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":618,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":618,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":618,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,91.0,163.0,219.5,243.5,292.0,363.5,381.5,403.5,547.0,590.5,609.0,597.0,552.0,599.0,679.0,449.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":425,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":679,"desc":"Your spike: +679g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Jax","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1017,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1017,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1017,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1017,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[36.0,96.0,142.0,180.0,236.0,286.0,325.0,378.0,410.0,560.0,611.5,573.0,551.0,337.0,282.0,333.0,404.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.1,"n_if_ahead_10":672,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":611,"desc":"Your spike: +611g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Kennen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":265,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":265,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":265,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":265,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,26.0,27.0,40.0,25.0,17.0,77.0,60.0,-19.0,-35.0,-42.0,-76.0,-220.0,-172.0,-141.0,-352.0,-413.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.3,"n_if_ahead_10":131,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-413,"desc":"Their spike: -413g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Darius","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1264,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1264,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1264,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1264,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":10,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,42.0,84.0,103.0,133.0,111.5,94.0,124.5,105.5,56.0,80.0,63.5,-5.5,-36.5,-227.0,-167.0,-153.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":685,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"KSante","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":781,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":781,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":781,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":781,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[44.0,77.0,133.0,188.0,151.0,135.0,98.0,82.0,82.0,57.5,15.0,-63.0,-194.0,-209.0,-92.0,-6.0,247.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":422,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1498,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1498,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1498,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1498,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":9,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[50.0,88.0,149.5,151.5,160.0,188.5,181.5,189.5,202.5,233.0,212.5,239.0,304.0,302.0,250.0,169.5,298.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":878,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":304,"desc":"Your spike: +304g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Kayn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":61,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":61,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":61,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":61,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.2,"upper":64.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,105.0,161.0,188.0,228.0,285.0,362.0,532.0,530.0,713.5,776.5,725.0,317.0,799.0,301.0,523.5,314.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":44,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":799,"desc":"Your spike: +799g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Renekton","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":997,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":997,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":997,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":997,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,98.0,168.0,224.0,240.0,185.0,211.0,173.0,137.0,164.0,140.0,175.0,-3.0,-135.0,-141.0,-145.5,-112.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":560,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 27 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"win_condition","time":1756,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":360,"desc":"Best trade window at 6:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Camille","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":534,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":534,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":534,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":534,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,55.0,69.5,96.5,122.5,166.5,215.0,291.0,304.0,336.0,419.0,425.0,378.0,257.0,74.0,-80.0,-328.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":340,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":425,"desc":"Your spike: +425g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Warwick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":217,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":217,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":217,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":217,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,126.0,257.0,284.0,298.0,406.0,423.0,533.0,555.0,536.0,597.0,714.0,785.0,652.0,533.0,341.0,715.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":146,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":785,"desc":"Your spike: +785g at 18:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":262,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":262,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":262,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":262,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,80.5,172.5,226.5,240.0,276.5,320.0,228.0,249.0,246.0,119.0,-2.0,-88.0,-46.0,-142.5,-49.0,414.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.5,"n_if_ahead_10":164,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":414,"desc":"Your spike: +414g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":79,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":79,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":79,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":79,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.1,"upper":62.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-13.0,-21.0,-46.0,-9.0,-28.0,-88.0,-104.0,-256.0,-204.0,-120.0,67.0,30.0,19.5,207.5,-212.0,-101.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":349,"value":325,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:49 (fast: 5:25)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Quinn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":197,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":197,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":197,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":197,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-67.0,-103.0,-14.0,30.0,96.0,72.0,97.0,109.0,163.0,313.5,345.5,438.0,369.0,218.0,-109.0,-463.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":106,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-463,"desc":"Their spike: -463g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":351,"value":327,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:51 (fast: 5:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Volibear","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":479,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":479,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":479,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":479,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,56.0,130.0,88.0,130.0,185.0,134.0,214.0,260.0,260.0,215.0,153.5,133.0,149.0,116.0,86.0,-95.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":278,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":600,"desc":"Best trade window at 10:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Gwen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":497,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":497,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":497,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":497,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,77.0,135.0,187.0,233.0,270.0,300.0,335.0,334.0,371.0,442.0,482.5,374.5,233.0,27.0,-55.5,-463.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.9,"n_if_ahead_10":329,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":482,"desc":"Your spike: +482g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":862,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":862,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":862,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":862,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.9,"upper":54.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,71.5,91.0,120.0,147.5,162.0,207.0,230.5,245.0,228.0,274.0,281.0,340.0,341.5,278.5,481.0,331.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":528,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":481,"desc":"Your spike: +481g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Gnar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":570,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":570,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":570,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":570,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,56.0,95.0,123.0,164.5,184.0,153.5,145.5,162.5,157.0,115.0,93.0,45.0,115.0,270.0,79.5,175.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":317,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Akali","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":432,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":432,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":432,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":432,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[39.5,54.0,70.5,103.0,134.0,112.0,139.5,103.0,100.0,71.5,158.0,61.0,114.0,229.5,245.0,157.0,189.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.7,"n_if_ahead_10":234,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Aurora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":104,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":104,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":104,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":104,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.5,-42.5,-45.5,-89.5,-61.0,-138.0,-73.5,-127.5,-195.0,-373.5,-512.0,-440.5,-310.0,-449.0,-272.0,-879.5,-757.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":77.5,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":45,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (45% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-879,"desc":"Their spike: -879g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":65,"desc":"Winners average 65 CS at 10:00 (losers: 55)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:24)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Chogath","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":458,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":458,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":458,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":458,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[49.0,75.0,133.0,168.0,201.5,224.5,274.0,280.0,359.5,349.5,317.0,351.0,272.0,316.5,129.0,23.0,184.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":283,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":600,"value":359,"desc":"Your spike: +359g at 10:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":600,"desc":"Best trade window at 10:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Illaoi","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":417,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":417,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":417,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":417,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[49.0,47.0,67.0,62.0,21.0,-3.0,-22.0,-66.0,-96.0,-234.5,-347.5,-501.5,-777.5,-854.0,-962.0,-756.5,-959.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":183,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-962,"desc":"Their spike: -962g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Sett","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1213,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1213,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1213,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1213,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.7,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,42.0,83.0,119.0,166.0,157.0,189.0,216.0,206.0,286.0,258.0,293.0,239.0,145.0,138.5,-37.0,231.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.5,"n_if_ahead_10":703,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Vayne","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":375,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":375,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":375,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":375,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-51.0,23.0,76.0,114.0,172.0,234.0,326.0,359.0,466.0,498.0,606.0,645.0,598.0,578.0,506.0,326.5,463.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.7,"n_if_ahead_10":258,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":645,"desc":"Your spike: +645g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Urgot","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":451,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":451,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":451,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":451,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,14.0,9.0,27.0,81.0,117.0,138.0,127.0,145.0,219.5,182.0,90.5,-326.0,-494.5,-493.0,-771.0,-938.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":259,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-938,"desc":"Their spike: -938g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Akshan","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":17,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.1,"upper":67.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.5,-222.0,-156.0,-140.0,-236.0,-169.5,-96.0,7.5,-172.5,-260.0,-292.0,-255.0,-486.0,-783.5,-481.0,154.0,-1751.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.5,"n_if_ahead_10":11,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Zed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":82,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":82,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":82,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":82,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":60.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[70.5,60.5,72.0,89.0,97.5,6.0,33.0,-84.5,-111.0,-250.0,-461.5,-436.0,-703.0,-810.0,-1030.0,-1191.0,-1265.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.1,"n_if_ahead_10":39,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1265,"desc":"Their spike: -1265g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Maokai","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":74,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":74,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":74,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":74,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.9,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[50.0,103.0,129.0,170.5,143.0,307.5,215.0,254.5,392.5,254.0,301.0,316.0,390.5,661.0,458.5,691.5,1293.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.7,"n_if_ahead_10":54,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1293,"desc":"Your spike: +1293g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Teemo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":534,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":534,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":534,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":534,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-16.0,8.0,21.5,-20.0,51.0,70.5,122.0,171.0,141.0,225.0,214.0,231.5,246.5,148.0,110.0,3.0,-173.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.9,"n_if_ahead_10":297,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":498,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":498,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":498,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":498,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,14.0,30.0,35.0,38.0,85.5,5.5,44.0,52.0,134.0,112.5,42.0,26.0,-233.5,-339.0,-516.0,-817.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.2,"n_if_ahead_10":257,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-817,"desc":"Their spike: -817g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1050,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1050,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1050,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1050,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,90.5,149.5,181.0,202.5,185.5,185.0,118.5,86.0,-15.5,-159.5,-248.5,-233.0,-312.0,-337.0,-391.0,-211.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":564,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-391,"desc":"Their spike: -391g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1792,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":360,"desc":"Best trade window at 6:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Irelia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":556,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":556,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":556,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":556,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,29.0,11.0,-23.5,-51.0,-97.5,-80.5,-188.0,-266.0,-428.5,-715.0,-857.0,-1117.0,-1358.0,-1557.0,-1517.0,-1639.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":224,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1639,"desc":"Their spike: -1639g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":157,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":157,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":157,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":157,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.3,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-37.0,-65.0,-140.0,-230.0,-322.0,-360.0,-435.0,-478.0,-545.0,-765.0,-1151.5,-1122.0,-1220.0,-1168.0,-1043.0,-796.0,-1098.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":44,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1220,"desc":"Their spike: -1220g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:21)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Anivia","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":102,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":102,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":102,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":102,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,-15.0,-40.0,-33.5,-48.0,-27.0,-54.0,-1.5,9.5,-92.5,-47.0,-103.0,-231.5,-29.0,160.0,424.0,-9.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.8,"n_if_ahead_10":51,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":49,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (49% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":424,"desc":"Your spike: +424g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Kled","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":282,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":282,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":282,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":282,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,2.5,20.0,-61.5,-37.0,-39.0,-39.0,-51.5,-172.5,-246.0,-336.0,-408.5,-447.5,-551.0,-512.5,-792.0,-1037.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":132,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1037,"desc":"Their spike: -1037g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":349,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:49 (fast: 5:21)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Malphite","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1139,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1139,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1139,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1139,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[68.0,82.0,121.0,140.0,136.0,151.0,135.0,112.0,117.0,15.0,-17.0,-46.0,-88.0,-151.0,-191.0,76.0,174.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.3,"n_if_ahead_10":625,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Singed","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":345,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":345,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":345,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":345,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.5,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,62.0,110.0,143.0,160.0,203.0,202.0,224.0,242.0,260.0,418.5,442.0,420.0,322.5,141.0,312.0,71.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":211,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":442,"desc":"Your spike: +442g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Garen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1240,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1240,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1240,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1240,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.0,84.0,156.0,220.0,280.0,342.0,362.0,404.0,374.5,403.5,425.0,344.0,141.5,-80.0,-170.0,-470.0,-437.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":818,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-470,"desc":"Their spike: -470g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1795,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 30m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Veigar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":22,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.0,"upper":65.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,56.0,91.0,114.0,238.0,236.0,188.0,134.0,282.0,403.0,308.0,408.0,466.5,555.5,306.0,649.0,355.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":489,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":489,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":489,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":489,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.9,"upper":52.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-22.0,-28.0,-38.0,-26.0,-38.0,-52.0,-76.0,-78.0,-89.0,-230.0,-331.0,-388.0,-756.0,-888.5,-808.0,-646.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":232,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-888,"desc":"Their spike: -888g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Jayce","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":742,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":742,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":742,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":742,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":51.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,36.0,35.0,63.5,69.5,71.0,82.0,16.0,10.0,19.0,-19.0,-42.0,-132.5,-278.0,-476.0,-511.5,-464.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":378,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-511,"desc":"Their spike: -511g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Kayle","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":458,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":458,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":458,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":458,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.5,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,105.0,191.5,290.0,379.0,438.0,475.0,503.5,588.0,644.0,795.5,982.0,1003.0,819.0,808.0,654.5,119.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.5,"n_if_ahead_10":361,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":38,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (38% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":1003,"desc":"Your spike: +1003g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Nasus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":474,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":474,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":474,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":474,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[78.5,105.0,192.0,268.0,355.0,379.0,464.5,475.0,458.0,570.5,592.0,557.0,648.0,332.0,387.0,414.0,147.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.4,"n_if_ahead_10":353,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":648,"desc":"Your spike: +648g at 18:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Ornn","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":727,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":727,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":727,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":727,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":51.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,86.0,156.0,203.0,232.0,304.0,331.0,335.0,340.0,354.0,349.0,387.0,410.0,506.0,444.0,704.5,809.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":484,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":809,"desc":"Your spike: +809g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Poppy","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":182,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":182,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":182,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":182,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.1,"upper":54.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.5,59.5,94.0,145.0,140.0,211.5,216.0,194.5,151.5,144.0,106.0,138.0,137.0,153.0,448.0,640.0,297.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.4,"n_if_ahead_10":103,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":640,"desc":"Your spike: +640g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":322,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Shen","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":699,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":699,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":699,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":699,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.3,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,56.0,109.0,143.0,183.0,263.0,284.0,335.0,370.0,529.0,663.5,739.0,881.5,961.5,929.0,934.0,982.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.1,"n_if_ahead_10":466,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":982,"desc":"Your spike: +982g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"RekSai","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":43,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":43,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":43,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":43,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.5,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,112.0,126.0,148.0,124.0,186.0,296.0,10.0,183.0,12.5,-387.0,-548.0,-414.5,-484.0,-466.0,-537.0,-1991.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1991,"desc":"Their spike: -1991g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1651,"desc":"Close before 27 min - wins avg 27m vs losses 27m"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":67,"desc":"Winners average 67 CS at 10:00 (losers: 58)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":346,"value":324,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:46 (fast: 5:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":480,"desc":"Best trade window at 8:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":271,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":271,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":271,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":271,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,7.0,16.0,22.0,26.0,80.0,108.0,141.0,116.0,80.0,2.0,-91.0,-227.0,-284.0,-138.0,-169.0,-532.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":146,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-532,"desc":"Their spike: -532g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":349,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:49 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Fiora","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":570,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":570,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":570,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":570,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":50.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.5,26.0,34.0,57.0,68.5,89.0,105.0,93.5,64.5,148.0,32.0,123.5,-31.5,-151.0,-324.0,-496.0,-776.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.0,"n_if_ahead_10":298,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-776,"desc":"Their spike: -776g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.6,"upper":61.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-45.0,66.0,99.0,123.0,74.0,198.0,495.0,343.0,454.0,416.5,560.5,637.5,373.0,207.0,63.0,-422.0,-415.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":91,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":91,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":91,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":91,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.3,"upper":56.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-46.0,-221.0,-162.0,-351.0,-405.0,-353.0,-268.0,-431.0,-632.0,-738.5,-662.5,-588.0,-1169.5,-1286.0,-743.5,-1209.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.4,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1286,"desc":"Their spike: -1286g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":62,"desc":"Winners average 62 CS at 10:00 (losers: 56)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Gragas","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":453,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":453,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":453,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":453,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.4,"upper":50.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,81.0,126.0,142.0,180.0,189.0,209.0,184.0,141.0,179.0,132.0,67.0,8.0,26.0,204.0,249.0,251.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.6,"n_if_ahead_10":264,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":480,"desc":"Best trade window at 8:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Skarner","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.5,"upper":61.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,91.0,227.0,234.0,91.0,181.0,210.0,134.0,83.0,209.0,169.0,173.0,-369.0,225.0,233.0,465.5,461.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.5,"upper":61.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,56.0,-29.0,46.0,-23.0,-134.0,-182.0,-176.0,-29.0,97.0,-414.0,54.0,113.5,589.0,955.0,1123.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Swain","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":125,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":125,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":125,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":125,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.1,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[33.0,30.0,21.0,52.0,61.0,63.0,113.0,92.0,50.0,-58.0,-182.0,-172.0,-149.0,8.0,-39.0,349.5,281.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.4,"n_if_ahead_10":64,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":349,"desc":"Your spike: +349g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":326,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:26)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Sion","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":782,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":782,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":782,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":782,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":17,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.1,"upper":49.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[49.0,90.5,140.0,134.0,152.0,182.0,200.0,154.0,186.0,83.0,16.0,-74.0,-177.0,-321.0,-364.0,-485.0,-537.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.2,"n_if_ahead_10":451,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-537,"desc":"Their spike: -537g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1786,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 30m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Olaf","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":310,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":310,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":310,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":310,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.0,"upper":51.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.5,44.0,54.5,122.5,180.5,234.0,264.0,316.5,250.5,362.0,190.0,248.0,24.0,-7.0,-91.5,-39.0,542.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.4,"n_if_ahead_10":181,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":542,"desc":"Your spike: +542g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":70,"desc":"Winners average 70 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Yorick","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":508,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":508,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":508,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":508,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":19,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.8,"upper":49.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[61.5,74.5,119.0,89.0,96.0,50.5,79.0,25.5,29.0,-69.0,-270.0,-420.5,-547.0,-748.0,-992.0,-1083.0,-1275.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.9,"n_if_ahead_10":258,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1275,"desc":"Their spike: -1275g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Varus","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":185,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":185,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":185,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":185,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.4,"upper":51.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-42.0,-4.0,-165.0,-210.0,-210.0,-218.0,-221.0,-261.0,-282.0,-524.0,-589.0,-647.5,-833.0,-1178.5,-1251.5,-1333.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":70,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1333,"desc":"Their spike: -1333g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Locke","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.7,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[1.0,-182.0,-101.0,-143.0,-308.0,-354.0,-202.0,-366.0,-426.0,-188.0,-654.0,-611.0,-1050.0,-562.0,98.0,-862.5,-2006.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":649,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":649,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":649,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":649,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.1,"upper":47.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[62.0,88.0,185.0,245.0,255.0,293.0,326.0,297.0,351.0,370.0,279.0,214.0,-35.0,-112.0,-161.0,-285.5,-180.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.8,"n_if_ahead_10":441,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 27 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":720,"value":370,"desc":"Your spike: +370g at 12:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1754,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Ryze","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":101,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":101,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":101,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":101,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.3,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,8.0,0.0,-52.0,-80.0,-43.0,-86.0,-158.0,-129.0,-270.0,-169.0,-256.0,-73.0,-537.0,-564.0,-653.0,-1134.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.4,"n_if_ahead_10":45,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1134,"desc":"Their spike: -1134g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":121,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":121,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":121,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":121,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.5,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,28.0,72.0,83.0,130.0,126.0,63.0,45.0,-37.0,-40.0,-159.0,-172.5,-486.0,-515.5,-646.5,-531.0,-562.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.2,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-646,"desc":"Their spike: -646g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":737,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":737,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":737,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":737,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":8.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":45.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[35.0,43.0,37.0,36.0,14.0,2.0,-46.0,-59.0,-159.0,-296.0,-435.0,-519.0,-827.0,-1265.0,-1691.0,-1959.0,-2130.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":318,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2130,"desc":"Their spike: -2130g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Brand","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":50,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":50,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":50,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":50,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":9.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.6,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,24.0,65.5,60.5,-44.5,54.0,80.5,73.5,105.0,255.0,262.0,94.0,82.0,-40.0,32.0,-142.0,656.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":26,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":656,"desc":"Your spike: +656g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:19)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Zac","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":74,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":74,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":74,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":74,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":12.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.6,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.5,64.5,52.5,17.0,118.0,212.0,173.5,324.0,275.0,-5.0,-125.0,35.5,-2.0,-143.0,-184.5,-225.5,-114.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.5,"n_if_ahead_10":44,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 27 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":83,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (83% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":540,"value":324,"desc":"Your spike: +324g at 9:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":540,"desc":"Best trade window at 9:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Azir","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":16.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":33.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":33.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":18.6,"upper":52.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.0,0.0,-50.0,-97.0,-111.0,-267.0,-389.0,-478.0,-607.0,-703.0,-1029.0,-1359.0,-1587.0,-1188.0,-1232.5,-1570.0,-3518.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":6,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Briar","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":18.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":31.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":31.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":19.9,"upper":45.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":40.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[89.0,181.0,188.5,312.5,273.5,486.0,412.5,369.5,386.5,511.0,752.0,700.5,972.0,1314.0,749.0,-155.5,41.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.8,"n_if_ahead_10":32,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":1314,"desc":"Your spike: +1314g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Pantheon","enemy":"Viktor","role":"TOP","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":24.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":25.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":25.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":12.7,"upper":43.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":16.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,-47.5,-37.5,-140.5,-306.5,-373.5,-372.0,-441.0,-553.0,-701.5,-891.5,-874.5,-1417.5,-1204.0,-1275.0,-1822.0,-3305.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.9,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}