{"matchups":[{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Nidalee","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":18.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.0,"upper":77.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-2.0,15.0,60.0,192.0,225.0,205.0,177.0,121.0,-36.0,196.0,190.0,393.0,836.0,962.0,1305.0,2298.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.7,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Chogath","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":17.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":76.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,5.0,17.0,96.0,196.0,34.0,-21.0,15.0,87.0,105.0,54.5,120.0,152.5,545.0,152.0,125.0,201.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Sion","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":15.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":74.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.5,37.5,62.5,65.0,-20.0,48.0,21.5,83.0,112.5,-114.0,-19.0,48.5,11.0,-193.0,-444.5,-826.5,-837.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.7,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":104,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":104,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":104,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":104,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":10.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.3,"upper":63.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.5,72.5,132.0,146.0,247.0,251.0,210.5,207.0,273.0,428.5,405.5,750.0,657.0,1004.0,1051.0,1319.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.8,"n_if_ahead_10":69,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1319,"desc":"Your spike: +1319g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":490,"value":460,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:10 (fast: 7:40)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":7.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":68.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,0.0,30.0,180.0,179.0,140.0,202.0,345.0,347.0,276.0,264.0,418.0,417.0,605.5,561.0,606.0,944.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"MissFortune","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":63.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,15.0,6.5,9.0,67.0,149.5,137.5,211.0,194.0,68.5,88.5,46.0,-92.0,-83.0,-175.0,-147.0,-97.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":517,"value":474,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:37 (fast: 7:54)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":540,"desc":"Best trade window at 9:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":65.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[13.0,18.0,77.0,15.5,-97.0,31.0,67.5,-80.5,-212.5,-375.5,-335.5,-279.5,-74.0,-50.5,-375.0,-273.5,134.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.3,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Renata","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":180,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":180,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":180,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":180,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":5.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,15.0,40.5,124.5,260.5,256.0,336.5,372.5,391.0,551.0,727.0,779.0,950.5,1131.5,1301.0,1666.0,2013.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.5,"n_if_ahead_10":136,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2013,"desc":"Your spike: +2013g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":497,"value":465,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:17 (fast: 7:45)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Sylas","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":178,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":178,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":178,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":178,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,47.0,21.5,14.5,-32.0,-11.0,1.0,-43.0,-44.0,-96.0,-120.0,-158.0,-90.0,-111.5,-123.0,10.0,314.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":85,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":314,"desc":"Your spike: +314g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":526,"value":483,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:46 (fast: 8:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Lux","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1482,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1482,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1482,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":73,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1482,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":16,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":50.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.0,13.5,35.0,71.5,108.5,136.0,160.5,181.0,193.5,248.5,270.0,314.0,352.0,475.0,483.5,590.0,527.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.3,"n_if_ahead_10":925,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":590,"desc":"Your spike: +590g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":512,"value":470,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:32 (fast: 7:50)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Amumu","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":69,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":69,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":69,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":69,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.5,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[13.0,31.0,95.0,71.0,39.0,95.0,80.0,178.0,171.0,186.0,193.0,214.0,67.0,154.0,333.0,468.0,1155.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.4,"n_if_ahead_10":39,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":50,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (50% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1155,"desc":"Your spike: +1155g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":535,"value":493,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:55 (fast: 8:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Zilean","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":350,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":350,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":350,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":350,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,15.0,55.5,117.5,177.5,260.5,291.5,351.0,420.0,484.5,542.5,529.0,744.5,814.5,962.5,964.0,1015.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":266,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":37,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (37% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1015,"desc":"Your spike: +1015g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":495,"value":461,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:15 (fast: 7:41)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Swain","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":575,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":575,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":575,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":575,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.1,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,20.0,45.0,57.0,91.0,90.0,103.0,145.0,137.0,154.0,207.0,200.0,361.0,542.5,545.0,609.5,771.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":340,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":771,"desc":"Your spike: +771g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":505,"value":471,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:25 (fast: 7:51)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Camille","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":211,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":211,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":211,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":211,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.0,-21.0,-72.0,-158.0,-237.0,-278.0,-264.0,-292.0,-281.0,-352.5,-280.0,-371.0,-324.0,-169.0,-241.0,58.0,256.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.4,"n_if_ahead_10":73,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-371,"desc":"Their spike: -371g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":526,"value":489,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:46 (fast: 8:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Neeko","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":396,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":396,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":396,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":396,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,11.5,25.0,64.5,127.0,155.5,173.0,183.5,224.5,242.0,395.0,421.0,574.0,697.0,764.0,911.0,994.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.6,"n_if_ahead_10":259,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":994,"desc":"Your spike: +994g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":509,"value":475,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:29 (fast: 7:55)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Maokai","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":254,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":254,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":254,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":254,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.4,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[9.0,20.5,49.5,55.0,33.0,82.0,133.0,193.5,225.5,277.0,259.0,365.0,469.0,566.0,751.0,824.0,1165.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.3,"n_if_ahead_10":164,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1165,"desc":"Your spike: +1165g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":511,"value":478,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:31 (fast: 7:58)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Shen","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":82,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":82,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":82,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":82,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.0,"upper":57.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[13.0,27.5,61.5,101.0,165.5,277.0,235.5,294.0,277.0,313.0,335.0,331.0,467.5,640.5,844.5,723.5,971.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.9,"n_if_ahead_10":54,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":83,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (83% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":971,"desc":"Your spike: +971g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":504,"value":471,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:24 (fast: 7:51)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Veigar","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":78,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":78,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":78,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":78,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.5,"upper":57.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,4.0,70.5,96.0,124.0,72.5,123.5,133.0,171.5,174.5,255.0,181.0,382.0,353.0,482.0,389.5,287.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.2,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":482,"desc":"Your spike: +482g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":511,"value":481,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:31 (fast: 8:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"JarvanIV","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":50,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":50,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":50,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":50,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.0,"upper":59.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.0,-8.5,-8.5,0.5,67.5,77.5,104.0,161.5,57.0,108.0,-23.0,-137.5,-276.5,-2.5,10.5,-83.0,-143.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":517,"value":457,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:37 (fast: 7:37)"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Thresh","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2273,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2273,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2273,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2273,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.6,"upper":47.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,25.0,66.0,124.0,165.0,216.0,269.0,334.0,386.0,490.5,591.0,645.0,843.5,1016.0,1212.5,1394.0,1650.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.1,"n_if_ahead_10":1664,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1650,"desc":"Your spike: +1650g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":509,"value":467,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:29 (fast: 7:47)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Annie","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":24,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.2,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[9.5,19.5,51.5,140.5,154.5,149.0,179.5,177.0,181.5,173.0,169.0,89.0,288.0,468.0,473.0,468.0,793.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.3,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":793,"desc":"Your spike: +793g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":516,"value":467,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:36 (fast: 7:47)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":537,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":537,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":537,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":537,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.9,"upper":49.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":0.7},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,21.0,51.0,66.0,92.0,120.0,130.0,108.0,55.5,105.5,89.0,93.0,142.0,271.5,244.5,291.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.3,"n_if_ahead_10":304,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":519,"value":482,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:39 (fast: 8:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Pyke","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1225,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1225,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1225,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1225,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":47.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.1},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,17.0,32.0,49.0,72.0,102.0,134.0,158.0,193.0,221.5,320.5,325.5,358.5,370.5,409.0,442.5,632.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.8,"n_if_ahead_10":731,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":632,"desc":"Your spike: +632g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":519,"value":481,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:39 (fast: 8:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Blitzcrank","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1054,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1054,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1054,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1054,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":48.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.0},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,36.0,87.0,159.5,223.0,282.5,364.0,421.5,473.5,600.0,683.0,765.0,967.0,1197.0,1414.0,1663.5,1910.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.4,"n_if_ahead_10":801,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1910,"desc":"Your spike: +1910g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":504,"value":468,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:24 (fast: 7:48)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Ashe","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":138,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":138,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":138,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":138,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.9,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,12.5,34.5,59.0,154.5,157.5,229.5,264.5,322.0,486.0,624.5,560.0,681.5,883.5,795.0,869.0,1120.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":99,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":44,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (44% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1120,"desc":"Your spike: +1120g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":504,"value":481,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:24 (fast: 8:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Brand","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":659,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":659,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":659,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":659,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":48.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,10.0,25.0,38.0,67.0,95.0,122.0,117.0,155.0,231.0,234.0,248.5,289.0,345.0,319.0,474.0,694.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.6,"n_if_ahead_10":407,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":694,"desc":"Your spike: +694g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":509,"value":467,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:29 (fast: 7:47)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Rakan","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":506,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":506,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":506,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":506,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":0.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,20.0,39.0,89.0,143.5,172.5,230.0,289.0,344.5,433.5,563.0,607.0,770.0,948.5,1080.0,1337.0,1633.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.1,"n_if_ahead_10":378,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1633,"desc":"Your spike: +1633g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":509,"value":466,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:29 (fast: 7:46)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Morgana","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":926,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":926,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":926,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":926,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":47.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.1},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,10.0,59.0,90.5,123.0,144.0,184.0,197.0,228.0,284.0,374.5,386.5,480.0,554.0,636.0,725.5,906.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.4,"n_if_ahead_10":599,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":906,"desc":"Your spike: +906g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":508,"value":467,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:28 (fast: 7:47)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2052,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2052,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2052,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2052,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":46.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,15.0,35.0,57.5,68.5,108.0,152.0,188.0,248.0,321.5,377.0,535.5,669.0,761.0,904.0,1142.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.2,"n_if_ahead_10":1289,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1142,"desc":"Your spike: +1142g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":507,"value":472,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:27 (fast: 7:52)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Zac","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":20,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.5,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,24.0,109.0,45.0,45.0,166.5,160.0,209.0,179.5,230.5,326.5,444.5,719.0,743.0,327.0,226.0,1099.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Rell","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":459,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":459,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":459,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":459,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":48.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,29.0,50.0,69.0,128.0,159.0,210.0,236.0,241.0,345.0,413.0,423.5,568.0,726.0,886.5,957.0,1102.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":304,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1102,"desc":"Your spike: +1102g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":520,"value":477,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:40 (fast: 7:57)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Zyra","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":536,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":536,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":536,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":536,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.1,"upper":48.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.6},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,17.0,36.0,47.5,77.0,95.0,76.0,140.5,136.5,214.5,238.0,232.0,252.0,331.5,428.0,464.0,634.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.5,"n_if_ahead_10":321,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":634,"desc":"Your spike: +634g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":512,"value":473,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:32 (fast: 7:53)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Braum","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":749,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":749,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":749,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":749,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.7,"upper":47.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,21.0,61.0,112.0,174.0,213.0,267.0,320.0,387.0,453.0,540.0,596.0,846.0,1006.0,1174.5,1376.0,1626.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.0,"n_if_ahead_10":554,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1626,"desc":"Your spike: +1626g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":508,"value":468,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:28 (fast: 7:48)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":109,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":109,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":109,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":109,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.1,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.0,5.0,-9.0,-5.0,-62.0,-96.0,-80.0,-81.0,-59.0,-105.0,34.0,-24.0,105.5,-102.0,-177.0,78.5,-127.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":517,"value":484,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:37 (fast: 8:04)"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Bard","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":776,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":776,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":776,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":776,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":47.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.5},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,15.0,39.5,62.5,79.5,100.5,136.0,181.0,217.0,293.0,356.0,375.0,487.5,515.0,593.5,797.5,899.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.6,"n_if_ahead_10":481,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":899,"desc":"Your spike: +899g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":520,"value":479,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:40 (fast: 7:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Hwei","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":99,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":99,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":99,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":99,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,19.0,48.0,32.0,69.0,114.0,64.0,144.0,121.0,172.5,230.5,214.5,330.0,273.5,48.0,-36.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.6,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":330,"desc":"Your spike: +330g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":514,"value":474,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:34 (fast: 7:54)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Teemo","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.2,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,30.0,74.0,100.0,236.0,270.0,197.0,232.0,266.0,438.5,488.0,380.5,477.5,422.5,776.0,986.5,950.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.1,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":986,"desc":"Your spike: +986g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":495,"value":457,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:15 (fast: 7:37)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Yuumi","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":728,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":728,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":728,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":728,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":46.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.1},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,30.0,70.0,135.0,204.0,277.5,336.5,406.5,442.5,557.0,709.5,782.5,1043.5,1169.5,1351.0,1489.0,1731.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.5,"n_if_ahead_10":561,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1731,"desc":"Your spike: +1731g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":510,"value":473,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:30 (fast: 7:53)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":560,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":560,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":560,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":560,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.0,"upper":47.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,16.0,20.5,34.5,32.0,3.5,12.0,27.0,-46.5,-96.0,-120.5,-119.0,-207.0,-273.0,-281.0,-292.0,-260.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.1,"n_if_ahead_10":269,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":515,"value":481,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:35 (fast: 8:01)"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Alistar","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":620,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":620,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":620,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":620,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.1,"upper":46.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,31.0,75.5,116.0,154.5,193.5,237.5,298.0,345.5,453.0,612.0,690.0,860.0,1065.0,1187.5,1396.0,1727.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.4,"n_if_ahead_10":443,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1727,"desc":"Your spike: +1727g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":517,"value":476,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:37 (fast: 7:56)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Leona","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1151,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1151,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1151,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1151,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":45.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.5},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,35.0,65.0,90.0,97.0,139.0,196.0,246.0,278.0,302.5,370.0,416.5,562.0,700.0,901.0,1075.0,1212.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.5,"n_if_ahead_10":772,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1212,"desc":"Your spike: +1212g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":517,"value":482,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:37 (fast: 8:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Nami","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2082,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2082,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2082,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2082,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.4,"upper":44.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":5.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,15.0,34.0,70.0,114.0,160.0,206.5,266.5,310.0,435.5,546.5,587.0,807.0,942.0,1118.5,1307.0,1527.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.2,"n_if_ahead_10":1489,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1527,"desc":"Your spike: +1527g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":508,"value":474,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:28 (fast: 7:54)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Soraka","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":782,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":782,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":782,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":782,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.0,"upper":45.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.1},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,14.0,28.0,46.5,79.5,149.0,209.5,249.0,321.0,414.5,523.0,576.0,765.0,1069.5,1274.5,1470.0,1766.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.8,"n_if_ahead_10":559,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1766,"desc":"Your spike: +1766g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":510,"value":475,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:30 (fast: 7:55)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":33,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":33,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":33,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":21,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":33,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.2,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.0,30.0,44.0,-4.0,15.0,2.0,32.0,116.0,201.0,95.0,237.0,276.0,431.0,823.0,745.0,947.0,910.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Galio","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":99,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":99,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":99,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":99,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.2,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,35.0,81.0,124.0,67.0,141.0,121.0,131.0,149.0,195.5,249.5,230.5,508.0,647.5,712.0,1166.0,1551.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.2,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1551,"desc":"Your spike: +1551g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":515,"value":483,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:35 (fast: 8:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Karma","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1511,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1511,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1511,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1511,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":44.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":5.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,10.0,19.0,38.0,70.0,99.0,120.0,148.0,187.0,284.0,379.0,402.0,559.0,664.0,806.0,1004.5,1232.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.3,"n_if_ahead_10":986,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1232,"desc":"Your spike: +1232g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":515,"value":482,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:35 (fast: 8:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Janna","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":510,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":510,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":510,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":510,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.9,"upper":46.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.5},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,18.5,48.5,94.5,134.5,218.5,265.0,312.5,346.0,444.0,571.5,635.0,766.0,937.0,1040.5,1252.5,1599.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.1,"n_if_ahead_10":373,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1599,"desc":"Your spike: +1599g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":514,"value":469,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:34 (fast: 7:49)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Anivia","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":114,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":114,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":114,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":114,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.4,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,10.0,18.5,37.5,114.0,92.5,209.5,174.5,168.0,240.5,140.0,185.5,433.5,545.0,344.5,336.0,517.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.0,"n_if_ahead_10":66,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":545,"desc":"Your spike: +545g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":513,"value":481,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:33 (fast: 8:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Lulu","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1426,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1426,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1426,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1426,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":44.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":5.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,16.0,35.0,77.5,126.0,159.5,221.0,265.5,330.0,432.0,552.5,632.0,768.0,1010.0,1167.5,1368.5,1581.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.7,"n_if_ahead_10":1055,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1581,"desc":"Your spike: +1581g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":508,"value":469,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:28 (fast: 7:49)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Nautilus","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1489,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1489,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1489,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1489,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.2,"upper":44.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":5.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.0,27.0,51.0,62.0,82.0,121.0,157.0,200.0,216.0,314.0,376.5,422.0,639.0,796.5,1030.5,1178.5,1425.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":46.4,"n_if_ahead_10":931,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1425,"desc":"Your spike: +1425g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":516,"value":479,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:36 (fast: 7:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Poppy","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":221,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":221,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":221,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":221,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.3,"upper":48.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[9.0,28.0,53.0,72.0,108.0,150.0,232.0,323.0,339.0,367.0,448.0,477.0,438.0,622.0,596.5,681.0,835.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.3,"n_if_ahead_10":149,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":835,"desc":"Your spike: +835g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":514,"value":477,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:34 (fast: 7:57)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Elise","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":206,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":206,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":206,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":206,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":48.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,2.5,-12.0,-12.0,-17.0,-5.0,-43.0,-64.0,-132.0,-73.0,-11.0,99.5,99.0,55.0,117.0,130.0,490.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.1,"n_if_ahead_10":92,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":490,"desc":"Your spike: +490g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":529,"value":491,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:49 (fast: 8:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Senna","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":875,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":875,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":875,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":875,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.0,"upper":44.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":5.4},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-17.0,27.0,65.0,118.0,134.0,154.0,140.0,166.0,148.0,148.0,136.5,70.0,101.0,112.5,115.0,-14.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.6,"n_if_ahead_10":514,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":500,"value":463,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:20 (fast: 7:43)"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":392,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":392,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":392,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":392,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.3,"upper":46.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.0},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,39.0,76.0,105.0,128.0,154.0,140.5,134.5,147.5,135.0,138.5,150.0,310.0,330.0,461.0,509.0,793.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.6,"n_if_ahead_10":227,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":793,"desc":"Your spike: +793g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":508,"value":466,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:28 (fast: 7:46)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Zoe","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":130,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":130,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":130,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":130,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.7,"upper":49.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,-12.5,-79.0,-32.5,-40.0,-21.5,4.5,34.0,147.5,137.5,79.5,28.0,323.0,215.0,331.5,430.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":44.9,"n_if_ahead_10":69,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":430,"desc":"Your spike: +430g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":527,"value":489,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:47 (fast: 8:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Milio","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1081,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1081,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1081,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":70,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1081,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":14,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":43.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":6.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":40.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,19.0,35.0,73.0,148.0,191.0,248.0,309.0,337.0,424.0,528.5,598.0,849.0,962.5,1143.0,1353.5,1500.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":44.5,"n_if_ahead_10":823,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1500,"desc":"Your spike: +1500g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":504,"value":468,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:24 (fast: 7:48)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Taric","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":145,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":145,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":145,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":145,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.4,"upper":48.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,25.0,43.0,44.0,77.0,123.0,208.0,234.0,261.0,394.0,573.0,561.0,702.5,667.0,1180.5,1484.0,1913.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.5,"n_if_ahead_10":101,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1913,"desc":"Your spike: +1913g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":514,"value":469,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:34 (fast: 7:49)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":24.6,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-1.5,48.0,120.5,154.5,226.5,167.0,206.0,282.5,313.5,400.5,319.5,514.0,710.5,712.0,241.0,299.0,580.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Xerath","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":706,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":706,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":706,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":67,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":706,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":14,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":43.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":6.4},"shrunk":{"estimate":40.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,4.0,14.0,24.5,42.0,51.0,36.0,40.5,-7.0,-22.0,-70.0,-110.0,-174.0,-173.0,-231.0,-276.0,-65.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.6,"n_if_ahead_10":350,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":508,"value":481,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:28 (fast: 8:01)"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Shaco","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":204,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":204,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":204,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":204,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.2,"upper":46.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":3.4},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.5,10.0,11.5,5.5,-7.5,16.0,-1.5,15.5,33.0,46.0,48.0,73.0,73.0,61.0,91.0,155.0,204.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.1,"n_if_ahead_10":107,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":506,"value":471,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:26 (fast: 7:51)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Malphite","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.8,"upper":49.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[13.0,36.0,210.0,271.0,321.0,364.0,374.0,387.0,407.0,525.0,703.0,584.0,698.5,885.0,982.5,929.0,897.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":35.6,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":982,"desc":"Your spike: +982g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":498,"value":447,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:18 (fast: 7:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.4,"upper":57.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-46.0,-106.5,-142.0,-16.5,-63.5,3.5,150.0,50.5,-24.5,-16.5,-141.5,-210.0,-433.0,-191.5,-458.0,-386.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":35.7,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Sona","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":549,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":549,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":549,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":549,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":42.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":7.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":39.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,10.0,30.0,49.0,96.0,144.0,241.0,260.0,302.0,388.0,441.0,467.0,553.0,703.0,885.5,1157.0,1301.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.3,"n_if_ahead_10":386,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1301,"desc":"Your spike: +1301g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":506,"value":474,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:26 (fast: 7:54)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Gragas","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":9.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":34.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":34.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":19.4,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.5,-29.5,-43.0,-40.5,-83.5,-20.0,-126.5,-152.0,-259.5,-143.0,-130.5,-271.0,-87.0,-380.0,-536.5,14.0,-232.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":36.4,"n_if_ahead_10":11,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Twitch","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":10.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":33.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":33.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.7,"upper":45.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.1},"shrunk":{"estimate":40.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-40.5,-74.5,-170.5,-118.0,-199.5,-195.0,-209.5,-320.5,-289.5,-294.0,-325.5,-948.0,-797.5,-1195.0,-1790.0,-1764.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1790,"desc":"Their spike: -1790g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":527,"value":484,"desc":"Hit 6 by 8:47 (fast: 8:04)"}]},{"champion":"Mel","enemy":"Skarner","role":"UTILITY","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":43.7,"edge_pp":11.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":32.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":32.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":17.2,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":12.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.0,9.0,10.0,25.0,-34.0,-51.0,-32.0,-49.0,-154.0,-151.0,-219.0,-223.0,-339.0,-270.0,-206.0,-366.0,725.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":20.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}