{"matchups":[{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Karma","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":19.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":70.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":70.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":54.2,"upper":82.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":11.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-20.0,-55.0,-47.0,-95.0,-81.0,-8.0,-89.0,-50.0,75.0,-96.0,-78.5,379.0,984.0,1095.5,1809.0,3104.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Twitch","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":16.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":67.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":67.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":80.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-66.0,-145.5,-176.0,-234.5,-325.5,-460.5,-477.5,-428.0,-373.5,-516.0,-539.0,-575.5,-404.0,-242.5,-571.0,57.0,-106.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":80.0,"n_if_ahead_10":5,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Urgot","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":12.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":79.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-58.0,-126.0,-167.0,-359.0,-483.0,-477.0,-556.0,-565.0,-740.0,-880.0,-903.0,-992.0,-727.0,-583.5,-153.0,-368.5,193.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":100.0,"n_if_ahead_10":5,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Renekton","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":75,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":75,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":75,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":75,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":11.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.4,"upper":72.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-70.0,-160.0,-207.0,-306.0,-367.0,-475.0,-628.0,-571.0,-500.0,-615.0,-641.0,-554.5,-658.0,-249.0,281.0,561.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":92.3,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-658,"desc":"Their spike: -658g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Zac","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":11.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.3,"upper":77.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-19.5,-23.0,-69.0,-88.5,-96.0,-117.0,-104.5,-221.5,-172.5,-211.0,-401.0,0.0,-136.0,-109.0,78.5,1222.0,-102.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":84.6,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Lucian","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":138,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":138,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":138,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":138,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":11.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":54.0,"upper":70.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":59.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-86.0,-178.5,-270.5,-368.0,-447.5,-489.5,-538.0,-627.5,-604.5,-607.5,-771.0,-944.0,-1002.0,-846.5,-883.0,-668.0,21.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":86.2,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1002,"desc":"Their spike: -1002g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Caitlyn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":75.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-96.0,-215.0,-376.0,-462.0,-566.0,-612.0,-613.0,-767.0,-815.0,-1011.0,-1204.0,-1087.0,-1133.0,-1205.5,-1275.0,-1142.0,-1020.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":100.0,"n_if_ahead_10":6,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Graves","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":9.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.4,"upper":76.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-47.5,-123.0,-138.5,-216.0,-338.0,-348.0,-536.5,-414.0,-672.0,-783.0,-860.5,-1026.0,-1271.0,-1196.0,-1149.0,-779.0,-815.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":null,"n_if_ahead_10":null,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Gragas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":82,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":82,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":82,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":82,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":8.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":69.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-19.5,-17.5,-35.5,1.0,-94.5,-70.0,-160.0,-124.5,-50.5,-97.5,-96.0,-37.5,134.5,446.5,375.5,1219.5,1002.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.9,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":38,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (38% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1219,"desc":"Your spike: +1219g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.1,"upper":73.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-163.0,-384.0,-475.0,-455.0,-499.5,-607.5,-655.0,-792.0,-703.5,-735.5,-800.0,-810.0,-683.0,-696.5,-310.0,269.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":5,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":941,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":941,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":941,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":76,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":941,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":53.8,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":3.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-47.0,-100.0,-158.0,-225.0,-316.0,-381.0,-419.0,-445.0,-462.0,-472.0,-558.0,-565.5,-506.0,-428.0,-232.0,162.0,539.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.9,"n_if_ahead_10":226,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-565,"desc":"Their spike: -565g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":354,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":354,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":354,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":354,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.6,"upper":61.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-63.0,-100.0,-144.0,-184.5,-189.0,-150.0,-108.5,-120.5,-122.5,-138.5,-109.0,12.0,78.0,265.0,845.0,1416.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.9,"n_if_ahead_10":148,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1416,"desc":"Your spike: +1416g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":423,"desc":"Survive to 7:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Nunu","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.9,"upper":71.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-17.0,-14.0,-54.0,-88.0,-57.0,-122.0,-89.0,-50.0,54.0,404.0,223.0,178.0,368.0,1155.0,1855.0,1921.0,2856.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Darius","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.3,"upper":71.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-41.5,-113.0,-194.5,-326.5,-396.5,-458.0,-530.0,-677.5,-595.5,-627.5,-627.0,-672.0,-782.0,-957.0,-75.0,143.0,145.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":100.0,"n_if_ahead_10":6,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":266,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":266,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":266,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":266,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.0,"upper":61.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-62.0,-126.0,-213.5,-266.0,-289.0,-334.0,-361.5,-355.0,-379.0,-508.0,-494.0,-500.0,-498.0,-183.5,187.0,378.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.8,"n_if_ahead_10":91,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-508,"desc":"Their spike: -508g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-65.0,-147.0,-301.5,-403.5,-452.0,-451.5,-488.0,-532.0,-485.0,-434.5,-728.0,-534.0,-711.0,-650.5,-941.0,-1272.0,-1857.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.9,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1857,"desc":"Their spike: -1857g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":72.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-30.0,-7.0,18.0,-58.0,-107.0,-358.0,-325.0,-379.0,-498.0,-977.0,-1175.0,-1153.0,-1348.0,-892.0,-1336.0,-1595.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":763,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":763,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":763,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":763,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":58.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-36.0,-74.0,-98.0,-149.0,-178.0,-231.0,-251.0,-260.0,-295.0,-302.0,-320.0,-300.5,-325.0,-123.0,107.0,413.0,913.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.5,"n_if_ahead_10":259,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":913,"desc":"Your spike: +913g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1001,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1001,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1001,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1001,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":13,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.5,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-98.0,-168.0,-241.0,-284.0,-335.0,-345.0,-360.0,-383.0,-413.0,-397.5,-437.0,-458.0,-364.0,-199.0,16.0,374.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.1,"n_if_ahead_10":314,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-458,"desc":"Their spike: -458g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":431,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":431,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":431,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":431,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-82.0,-144.0,-183.0,-242.0,-308.0,-307.0,-331.0,-320.0,-348.0,-333.0,-396.0,-330.5,-274.0,196.0,440.5,1439.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.9,"n_if_ahead_10":139,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1439,"desc":"Your spike: +1439g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":377,"desc":"Survive to 6:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":662,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":662,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":662,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":662,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.6,"upper":58.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-62.0,-118.5,-172.0,-227.0,-247.5,-285.5,-285.0,-297.0,-267.0,-359.0,-425.5,-470.0,-383.0,-213.5,-19.0,307.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.9,"n_if_ahead_10":239,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-470,"desc":"Their spike: -470g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Viego","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.2,"upper":67.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-47.0,-102.5,-154.0,-245.5,-309.0,-324.5,-364.0,-313.5,-376.0,-448.0,-520.0,-650.0,-893.0,-590.0,-759.0,456.0,325.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":92.3,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-893,"desc":"Their spike: -893g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:19)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1509,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1509,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1509,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1509,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":11,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.8,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-51.0,-85.0,-132.0,-196.0,-252.0,-299.0,-300.0,-334.0,-342.0,-359.0,-388.0,-456.0,-439.5,-296.0,-31.0,270.0,380.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.9,"n_if_ahead_10":469,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-456,"desc":"Their spike: -456g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":382,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":382,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":382,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":382,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":59.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-45.0,-69.0,-93.5,-132.0,-138.5,-136.5,-117.0,-91.5,-96.0,-31.5,-75.0,-9.5,109.0,303.0,665.0,950.0,1217.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.3,"n_if_ahead_10":172,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1217,"desc":"Your spike: +1217g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":369,"desc":"Survive to 6:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Fizz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":923,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":923,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":923,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":923,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":57.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-92.0,-209.0,-274.0,-345.0,-370.0,-423.0,-439.0,-457.0,-456.0,-521.5,-612.5,-712.0,-601.0,-388.5,-205.0,383.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.3,"n_if_ahead_10":289,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-712,"desc":"Their spike: -712g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Singed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-58.0,-68.0,-79.0,-136.0,-89.0,-110.0,-65.0,-26.0,65.0,247.0,-2.0,375.0,253.0,502.0,681.5,1051.5,596.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.2,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":559,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":559,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":559,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":559,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":57.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-30.0,-21.0,-26.0,-14.0,23.0,55.0,128.0,143.0,217.0,228.0,233.5,381.5,529.0,725.0,893.5,995.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":341,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":995,"desc":"Your spike: +995g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1254,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1254,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1254,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1254,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.5,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.0,-74.0,-108.0,-147.0,-192.5,-239.5,-260.0,-277.0,-268.5,-236.0,-316.0,-339.5,-261.0,-17.0,16.0,439.5,604.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.0,"n_if_ahead_10":445,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":604,"desc":"Your spike: +604g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":740,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":740,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":740,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":740,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.6,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-98.0,-170.5,-265.0,-317.0,-400.5,-410.5,-433.0,-415.5,-478.0,-544.0,-602.5,-483.5,-383.0,-79.0,454.0,700.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.3,"n_if_ahead_10":211,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":700,"desc":"Your spike: +700g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":394,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":394,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":394,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":394,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-53.5,-56.0,-72.5,-90.5,-115.5,-122.5,-123.5,-59.5,-61.0,-100.0,-69.0,-90.0,49.0,108.0,370.5,825.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":183,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":825,"desc":"Your spike: +825g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":651,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":651,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":651,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":651,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-56.0,-110.0,-208.0,-329.0,-432.0,-509.0,-553.0,-609.0,-664.0,-834.0,-1088.0,-1205.5,-1498.0,-1554.0,-1336.0,-1068.5,-554.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.3,"n_if_ahead_10":139,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1554,"desc":"Their spike: -1554g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":221,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":221,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":221,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":221,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.4,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-62.0,-119.0,-182.0,-245.0,-237.0,-267.0,-270.0,-263.0,-256.0,-292.0,-328.0,-418.0,-155.0,-6.0,208.0,684.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.6,"n_if_ahead_10":69,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":684,"desc":"Your spike: +684g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":521,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":521,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":521,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":521,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":57.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-94.0,-154.0,-199.0,-293.0,-337.0,-358.0,-406.0,-407.0,-474.0,-515.0,-500.0,-445.0,-273.0,94.0,226.0,287.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.7,"n_if_ahead_10":134,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-515,"desc":"Their spike: -515g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Corki","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.7,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-63.0,-144.0,-213.0,-291.0,-413.0,-499.5,-616.0,-667.5,-738.5,-843.0,-1039.5,-1140.5,-1139.0,-1347.5,-1106.0,-884.0,-196.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":78.3,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1347,"desc":"Their spike: -1347g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1309,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1309,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1309,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1309,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.6,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-28.0,-32.0,-64.0,-101.0,-128.0,-141.0,-152.0,-160.0,-136.5,-219.0,-237.5,-265.0,-107.0,145.0,470.5,825.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":532,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":825,"desc":"Your spike: +825g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":44,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":44,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":44,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":22,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":44,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.9,"upper":66.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-45.5,-54.5,-63.0,-124.0,-146.5,-109.0,-89.5,-71.0,-20.5,-88.0,-28.5,66.0,559.5,1271.0,1621.0,2161.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2161,"desc":"Your spike: +2161g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Ahri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2099,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2099,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2099,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2099,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-36.0,-70.0,-116.0,-168.0,-225.0,-255.0,-274.0,-299.0,-294.0,-328.5,-357.0,-385.0,-337.0,-122.0,172.0,457.5,958.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":713,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":958,"desc":"Your spike: +958g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":391,"desc":"Survive to 6:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":859,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":859,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":859,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":859,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-72.0,-146.0,-222.0,-317.0,-393.0,-444.0,-478.0,-496.0,-506.0,-552.0,-615.5,-664.5,-719.0,-654.0,-499.5,-118.0,346.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.3,"n_if_ahead_10":199,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-719,"desc":"Their spike: -719g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":145,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":145,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":145,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":145,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.7,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-72.0,-117.0,-210.0,-295.0,-371.0,-390.0,-458.0,-501.0,-452.0,-775.0,-780.0,-962.5,-770.0,-401.5,-86.0,751.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.3,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-962,"desc":"Their spike: -962g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":281,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":281,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":281,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":281,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.8,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-114.0,-156.0,-229.0,-300.0,-296.0,-333.0,-326.0,-318.0,-326.0,-428.5,-373.0,-351.5,-91.5,9.0,65.0,429.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":88,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":429,"desc":"Your spike: +429g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":68,"desc":"Winners average 68 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Hwei","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":794,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":794,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":794,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":794,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-67.5,-107.0,-152.0,-213.0,-229.0,-233.0,-295.0,-302.5,-293.5,-359.0,-344.0,-329.0,-266.0,146.0,516.0,777.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":276,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":777,"desc":"Your spike: +777g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":243,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":243,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":243,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":243,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-66.0,-112.0,-173.0,-286.0,-329.0,-356.0,-424.0,-444.0,-462.0,-544.5,-507.5,-484.0,-294.5,87.0,412.0,1131.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1131,"desc":"Your spike: +1131g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":105,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":105,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":105,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":105,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":60.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-19.0,-10.0,-20.0,-52.0,-16.0,-18.0,-78.0,-63.0,24.0,61.0,-69.0,4.0,318.0,590.5,1039.0,1710.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.0,"n_if_ahead_10":50,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1710,"desc":"Your spike: +1710g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1674,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1674,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1674,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1674,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-62.0,-95.0,-125.0,-147.0,-151.0,-159.0,-158.0,-162.0,-157.0,-205.0,-223.0,-243.5,-123.0,79.0,363.0,769.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.1,"n_if_ahead_10":643,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":769,"desc":"Your spike: +769g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":973,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":973,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":973,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":973,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-76.0,-98.0,-154.0,-190.0,-182.0,-214.0,-227.0,-253.0,-286.0,-335.5,-407.0,-344.0,-278.0,-2.5,180.0,305.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.3,"n_if_ahead_10":366,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-407,"desc":"Their spike: -407g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1377,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1377,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1377,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1377,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-39.0,-62.0,-108.0,-139.0,-152.0,-147.0,-136.0,-107.0,-66.0,-70.0,-98.5,34.5,253.5,602.0,894.0,1310.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.9,"n_if_ahead_10":619,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1310,"desc":"Your spike: +1310g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":650,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":650,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":650,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":650,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.4,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-17.0,-27.0,-37.5,-63.5,-86.0,-60.5,-76.5,-67.5,-21.0,47.0,88.5,141.0,268.0,644.0,1128.0,1487.0,2059.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":314,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2059,"desc":"Your spike: +2059g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1855,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1855,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1855,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1855,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-4.0,-35.0,-68.0,-109.0,-135.0,-156.0,-122.0,-99.0,-103.5,-150.0,-196.0,-186.0,-104.5,72.5,289.0,541.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.2,"n_if_ahead_10":845,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":541,"desc":"Your spike: +541g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1192,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1192,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1192,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1192,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-93.0,-153.0,-214.5,-268.5,-292.5,-293.0,-315.5,-342.0,-343.0,-430.0,-407.0,-400.0,-323.0,-225.0,-11.5,265.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.4,"n_if_ahead_10":384,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":840,"value":-430,"desc":"Their spike: -430g at 14:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1486,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1486,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1486,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1486,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":53.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.5,-76.0,-109.0,-176.0,-227.0,-264.0,-287.5,-314.5,-303.0,-317.0,-417.0,-498.5,-630.5,-539.0,-407.0,-83.0,105.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.4,"n_if_ahead_10":493,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-630,"desc":"Their spike: -630g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":157,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":157,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":157,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":157,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-64.0,-105.0,-140.0,-220.0,-238.0,-244.0,-271.0,-306.0,-315.0,-298.0,-314.5,-515.0,-343.5,-163.0,50.0,597.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.1,"n_if_ahead_10":49,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":597,"desc":"Your spike: +597g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":931,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":931,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":931,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":931,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.7,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.0,-44.0,-65.0,-102.0,-206.0,-226.0,-261.0,-293.0,-292.0,-302.5,-367.0,-373.0,-295.5,-145.0,11.0,355.0,756.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.8,"n_if_ahead_10":317,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":756,"desc":"Your spike: +756g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":745,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":745,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":745,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":745,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-36.0,-79.0,-107.0,-179.0,-230.0,-239.0,-256.0,-281.0,-282.0,-298.0,-344.0,-445.5,-384.5,-193.5,161.0,560.5,1016.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.9,"n_if_ahead_10":259,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1016,"desc":"Your spike: +1016g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":379,"desc":"Survive to 6:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Varus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.1,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-77.0,-152.0,-173.0,-307.0,-415.0,-509.0,-620.0,-644.0,-633.0,-668.0,-1206.5,-1135.5,-1162.0,-1571.5,-1618.0,-1223.0,-1726.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1726,"desc":"Their spike: -1726g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Talon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":529,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":529,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":529,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":529,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-58.0,-138.0,-229.0,-325.0,-438.0,-500.0,-560.0,-589.0,-644.0,-745.0,-911.0,-937.0,-856.0,-918.5,-766.0,-532.5,14.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.3,"n_if_ahead_10":112,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-937,"desc":"Their spike: -937g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":155,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":155,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":155,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":155,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":58.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-36.0,-62.0,-98.0,-188.0,-281.0,-332.0,-397.0,-444.0,-471.0,-601.0,-856.5,-968.0,-1170.5,-1193.5,-1132.5,-1014.0,-286.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.4,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1193,"desc":"Their spike: -1193g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":601,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":601,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":601,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":601,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-65.0,-131.0,-253.0,-348.0,-485.0,-599.0,-669.0,-717.0,-761.0,-920.5,-1056.0,-1101.5,-1194.0,-1070.0,-940.0,-613.0,-417.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.5,"n_if_ahead_10":87,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1194,"desc":"Their spike: -1194g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":533,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":533,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":533,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":533,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-38.0,-105.0,-240.0,-350.0,-493.0,-636.0,-693.0,-791.0,-883.0,-1023.0,-1235.0,-1335.0,-1461.0,-1411.5,-1049.0,-732.5,-422.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.8,"n_if_ahead_10":99,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":82,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (82% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1461,"desc":"Their spike: -1461g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1050,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1050,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1050,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1050,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.5,-18.0,-7.5,-21.0,-29.0,-19.0,-16.5,6.0,12.0,43.0,19.5,-27.0,-3.0,89.5,283.0,272.5,536.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":533,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":536,"desc":"Your spike: +536g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":524,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":524,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":524,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":524,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-64.0,-139.5,-247.0,-341.0,-394.0,-458.0,-544.0,-620.5,-665.0,-737.0,-825.0,-878.0,-901.0,-936.0,-870.0,-645.0,-598.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.1,"n_if_ahead_10":109,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-936,"desc":"Their spike: -936g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Kennen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.9,"upper":59.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-37.0,-75.0,-118.0,-175.0,-210.0,-182.0,-138.0,-206.0,-129.0,-115.0,-225.0,-293.0,-256.0,-184.5,-116.0,334.0,744.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.5,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":744,"desc":"Your spike: +744g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":797,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":797,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":797,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":797,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-70.0,-103.0,-164.0,-204.0,-258.0,-256.0,-278.0,-284.0,-251.0,-264.0,-223.5,-235.0,-181.5,-20.0,72.0,136.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.1,"n_if_ahead_10":287,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":712,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":712,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":712,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":712,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-52.0,-134.5,-216.0,-315.0,-353.0,-402.5,-430.0,-430.0,-448.5,-551.0,-608.0,-719.0,-661.0,-383.0,14.5,168.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.1,"n_if_ahead_10":206,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-719,"desc":"Their spike: -719g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":797,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":797,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":797,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":797,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-38.0,-72.0,-120.0,-168.0,-255.0,-276.0,-348.0,-344.0,-398.0,-429.5,-541.0,-531.0,-513.0,-323.5,-119.0,279.0,697.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.8,"n_if_ahead_10":236,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":697,"desc":"Your spike: +697g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":188,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":188,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":188,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":188,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.4,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-32.0,-25.5,-49.0,-62.5,-58.5,-80.0,-108.0,-62.0,50.0,129.0,83.0,63.0,45.5,446.0,378.0,614.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":87,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":614,"desc":"Your spike: +614g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":91,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":91,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":91,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":91,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.4,"upper":58.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-162.0,-251.0,-362.0,-517.0,-520.0,-591.0,-621.0,-698.0,-689.0,-898.0,-905.0,-1025.5,-909.5,-716.0,-238.0,-677.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1025,"desc":"Their spike: -1025g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Teemo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.7,"upper":66.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-50.0,-86.0,-148.0,-122.0,-46.0,-21.0,-53.0,62.0,-68.5,6.0,84.5,1.5,34.0,-211.5,-252.0,1111.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Rumble","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.7,"upper":66.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-63.0,-73.0,-81.0,-129.0,-298.0,-268.0,-232.0,-177.0,-261.0,-560.0,-427.0,-352.0,37.5,119.0,139.5,-86.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":6,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":44,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":44,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":44,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":44,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.8,"upper":62.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-58.5,-131.0,-193.0,-214.0,-276.5,-343.5,-346.5,-444.0,-410.0,-541.0,-694.0,-544.0,-248.0,-272.0,347.0,839.0,916.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":12,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":480,"end_time":600,"value":40,"desc":"Most early deaths land 8:00-10:00 (40% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":916,"desc":"Your spike: +916g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":534,"desc":"Survive to 8:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":303,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":303,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":303,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":303,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-76.0,-141.0,-228.0,-342.0,-432.0,-512.0,-585.0,-659.0,-768.0,-951.0,-1156.0,-1351.5,-1498.0,-1453.0,-1259.0,-800.0,-418.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.2,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1498,"desc":"Their spike: -1498g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":804,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":804,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":804,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":804,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":51.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-68.0,-117.5,-149.0,-210.5,-244.0,-266.0,-290.5,-283.0,-310.0,-322.0,-316.0,-249.0,-33.0,213.0,559.0,899.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":271,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":899,"desc":"Your spike: +899g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":355,"desc":"Survive to 5:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":299,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":299,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":299,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":299,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-138.0,-231.0,-350.0,-449.0,-545.0,-571.0,-627.0,-665.0,-713.0,-817.0,-867.0,-920.0,-701.0,-602.0,-341.0,-373.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.7,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-920,"desc":"Their spike: -920g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":348,"value":320,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:48 (fast: 5:20)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Zilean","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.2,"upper":58.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.5,-21.0,1.0,-30.5,-41.5,-3.5,83.0,72.0,174.0,146.5,420.0,455.0,693.0,1021.0,1296.0,1835.0,2311.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2311,"desc":"Your spike: +2311g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Neeko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":94,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":94,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":94,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":94,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.0,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-65.0,-122.0,-215.5,-293.0,-306.0,-353.0,-282.5,-392.0,-403.0,-374.0,-449.0,-413.0,-185.5,-53.5,85.5,1518.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.4,"n_if_ahead_10":26,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1518,"desc":"Your spike: +1518g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:19)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Brand","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":161,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":161,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":161,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":161,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.0,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-58.0,-119.0,-126.0,-270.0,-285.0,-265.0,-282.0,-315.0,-299.0,-334.0,-320.0,-179.5,82.0,432.0,916.5,1372.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1372,"desc":"Your spike: +1372g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":395,"desc":"Survive to 6:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":275,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":275,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":275,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":275,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.4,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-44.0,-84.0,-106.0,-184.0,-230.0,-252.0,-274.0,-271.0,-261.0,-253.5,-285.0,-289.0,-274.0,-276.0,21.0,568.5,1251.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":99,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1251,"desc":"Your spike: +1251g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":434,"desc":"Survive to 7:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Chogath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":109,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":109,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":109,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":109,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.8,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.0,-63.0,-113.0,-187.0,-260.0,-299.0,-352.0,-335.0,-346.0,-305.0,-328.0,-368.0,-237.0,-223.0,-246.0,85.5,176.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-368,"desc":"Their spike: -368g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":286,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":286,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":286,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":286,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.1,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-68.0,-140.0,-271.0,-371.0,-436.0,-540.5,-605.5,-635.0,-728.5,-832.0,-986.0,-1051.5,-1126.0,-1360.0,-1250.0,-1215.0,-1190.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1360,"desc":"Their spike: -1360g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.5,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-116.0,-281.0,-348.0,-475.0,-490.0,-597.0,-629.0,-562.0,-663.0,-820.0,-901.0,-1054.5,-885.0,-646.0,-546.5,-253.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.7,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1054,"desc":"Their spike: -1054g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":900,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":900,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":900,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":75,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":900,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.8,"upper":48.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-89.0,-192.5,-283.5,-419.0,-502.5,-569.5,-632.0,-763.0,-889.0,-1103.0,-1185.0,-1463.0,-1628.0,-1482.5,-1316.0,-948.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.9,"n_if_ahead_10":177,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1628,"desc":"Their spike: -1628g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Vayne","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":57,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":57,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":57,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":57,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.8,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-84.0,-130.0,-247.0,-343.0,-371.0,-372.0,-410.0,-417.0,-360.0,-530.0,-674.0,-599.0,-626.0,-458.0,-350.0,-522.0,-1518.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":47,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (47% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1518,"desc":"Their spike: -1518g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.2,"upper":60.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-38.5,-24.0,-46.0,-42.5,-153.0,-156.0,-115.0,-342.5,-468.0,-527.5,-725.5,-266.5,-62.0,201.0,545.0,2777.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":147,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":147,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":147,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":147,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.8,"upper":51.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-30.0,-30.0,-79.0,-119.0,-153.0,-175.0,-211.0,-178.0,-121.0,-210.0,-109.0,-181.0,80.5,416.0,594.0,1133.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":54,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1133,"desc":"Your spike: +1133g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":510,"desc":"Survive to 8:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":115,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":115,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":115,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":115,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-68.0,-162.0,-249.0,-358.0,-529.0,-679.0,-723.0,-767.0,-930.0,-1163.0,-1378.0,-1402.0,-1546.0,-1600.5,-1776.0,-1513.0,-1064.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.5,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1776,"desc":"Their spike: -1776g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":143,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":143,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":143,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":143,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.5,"upper":51.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-4.0,14.0,2.0,-14.0,-9.0,-11.0,-25.0,-33.0,-24.0,-49.0,-316.0,-444.0,-642.0,-497.0,-174.5,67.0,-140.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":70,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-642,"desc":"Their spike: -642g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":168,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":168,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":168,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":168,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":8.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":50.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-54.0,-88.5,-190.0,-286.5,-393.0,-469.5,-576.5,-613.0,-692.0,-732.0,-881.0,-846.0,-1051.0,-1087.0,-964.0,-429.5,-944.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1087,"desc":"Their spike: -1087g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:15)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":151,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":151,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":151,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":151,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":8.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":50.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-64.0,-146.0,-204.0,-296.0,-407.0,-457.0,-579.0,-744.0,-735.0,-1045.0,-1295.0,-1516.0,-1989.0,-2167.0,-2044.0,-1662.5,-1965.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-2167,"desc":"Their spike: -2167g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":9.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.9,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-44.0,-53.0,-133.5,-234.5,-365.5,-398.0,-429.5,-524.0,-561.5,-613.5,-536.0,-755.0,-670.5,-800.5,326.0,347.0,1087.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1087,"desc":"Your spike: +1087g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Winners average 71 CS at 10:00 (losers: 64)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Briar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":9.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.9,"upper":57.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-39.5,-103.0,-235.5,-377.0,-395.0,-517.0,-434.5,-405.5,-493.0,-617.5,-551.5,-643.5,-809.5,-1241.0,-793.0,242.0,593.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":33.3,"n_if_ahead_10":6,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":9.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.4,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-87.0,-184.0,-248.0,-384.0,-548.0,-575.0,-806.0,-882.0,-874.0,-1012.0,-914.0,-1202.0,-710.0,-1235.0,-457.0,-584.0,-889.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":85,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":85,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":85,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":85,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.3,"upper":51.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-77.0,-109.0,-147.0,-116.0,-212.0,-167.0,-95.0,-127.0,-24.5,-263.0,-232.0,-514.5,-887.0,-555.5,-511.0,-614.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-887,"desc":"Their spike: -887g at 21:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.3,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-124.0,-164.0,-284.0,-396.0,-485.0,-611.0,-606.0,-719.0,-795.0,-1070.0,-1021.0,-1398.0,-1267.0,-1265.0,-1458.0,-1225.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Yorick","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":11.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":24.6,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-36.0,-13.5,-86.0,-112.0,-144.0,-126.0,-164.0,-144.5,-127.0,-476.0,-580.0,-770.0,-1634.0,-1026.5,-718.5,-1508.0,-727.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":36.4,"n_if_ahead_10":11,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":119,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":119,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":119,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":119,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":11.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.2,"upper":48.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-79.0,-166.0,-239.0,-394.0,-488.0,-562.0,-580.0,-672.0,-792.5,-1043.0,-1081.0,-1253.0,-1517.0,-1095.0,-1302.0,-1307.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1517,"desc":"Their spike: -1517g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":62,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":62,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":62,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":62,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":12.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.6,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-104.5,-185.0,-380.5,-488.5,-547.0,-723.5,-692.5,-864.5,-1014.0,-1027.0,-1055.0,-1099.0,-1193.5,-1130.5,-799.5,512.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":null,"n_if_ahead_10":null,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1193,"desc":"Their spike: -1193g at 21:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":63,"desc":"Winners average 63 CS at 10:00 (losers: 56)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":347,"value":330,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:47 (fast: 5:30)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Karthus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":13.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.9,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.0,-13.0,-11.0,-26.5,-106.5,-115.5,-72.5,-14.0,-3.5,98.5,100.0,223.5,229.0,928.0,886.0,1109.0,919.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Sett","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":15.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":23.0,"upper":50.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.5,-137.0,-274.0,-373.5,-542.5,-473.0,-552.5,-568.0,-716.0,-928.0,-1177.5,-1391.5,-1403.0,-1304.0,-1140.0,-1579.0,-1106.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1579,"desc":"Their spike: -1579g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Camille","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":16.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":21.5,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-112.0,-214.5,-276.5,-411.5,-506.5,-484.0,-492.0,-543.5,-736.0,-772.5,-757.0,-1045.0,-1077.0,-1393.0,-1654.0,-845.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.9,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Kled","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":17.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":33.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":33.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":19.2,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.0,-81.0,-270.5,-290.0,-489.0,-503.5,-456.0,-490.0,-761.0,-761.0,-839.5,-1159.0,-1062.5,-1099.0,-1488.0,-1023.0,-2241.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Quinn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":73,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":73,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":73,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":73,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":18.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":32.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":32.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":23.2,"upper":44.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":39.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-63.0,-133.0,-181.0,-351.0,-343.0,-452.0,-476.0,-460.0,-550.0,-752.0,-940.0,-983.0,-817.0,-662.0,-250.0,499.0,353.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-983,"desc":"Their spike: -983g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Kassadin","enemy":"Jhin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":18.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":32.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":32.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":20.9,"upper":47.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-81.5,-183.0,-294.5,-439.5,-549.5,-651.5,-671.0,-690.5,-727.5,-858.0,-1308.5,-1209.5,-1641.0,-1004.0,-1460.0,-1393.0,-396.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.9,"n_if_ahead_10":7,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-1641,"desc":"Their spike: -1641g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:12)"}]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}