{"matchups":[{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":17.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":67.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":67.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":81.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,30.0,13.0,-25.0,-11.0,26.0,75.0,47.0,89.0,255.0,356.0,338.0,281.5,-233.0,-664.0,-1172.5,-1630.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Sejuani","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":12.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":76.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,36.0,47.0,111.0,24.0,-57.0,3.0,-206.0,24.0,13.0,107.0,16.0,-54.0,103.5,168.5,347.0,187.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.2,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":117,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":117,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":117,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":117,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":12.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":53.4,"upper":70.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-32.0,-130.0,-175.0,-172.0,-179.0,-194.0,-162.0,-244.0,-185.0,-7.0,-51.0,27.0,-76.0,-424.5,-424.0,-238.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.3,"n_if_ahead_10":45,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":46,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (46% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-424,"desc":"Their spike: -424g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Karthus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":11.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":75.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-1.0,14.0,21.0,32.0,-24.0,-2.0,44.0,30.0,-35.0,393.0,220.0,28.0,137.0,465.0,-317.5,-427.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Caitlyn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":37,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":37,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":37,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":37,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":9.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.5,"upper":73.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-35.0,-55.0,-46.0,-40.0,-40.0,-22.0,115.0,67.0,161.0,181.0,-83.0,34.0,-53.5,410.0,160.0,-290.5,44.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"KSante","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":8.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.3,"upper":71.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[25.0,21.5,64.5,88.0,93.5,68.5,197.5,160.0,27.5,51.0,-34.0,-79.0,196.5,702.0,517.0,668.5,987.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":987,"desc":"Your spike: +987g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":119,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":119,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":119,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":119,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":8.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":66.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-28.0,-68.0,-98.0,-71.0,-110.0,-128.0,-159.0,-272.0,-182.0,-155.0,-263.0,-257.5,-318.0,-333.0,-619.0,-920.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":44,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (44% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-920,"desc":"Their spike: -920g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":107,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":107,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":107,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":107,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":8.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":66.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-48.0,-96.0,-119.0,-151.0,-227.0,-341.0,-400.0,-344.0,-329.5,-244.0,-400.0,-537.0,-665.0,-497.5,-993.0,-1144.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.7,"n_if_ahead_10":44,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1144,"desc":"Their spike: -1144g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":222,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":222,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":222,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":222,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":63.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.5,19.5,7.0,14.0,24.5,-7.0,2.0,14.5,0.5,62.0,-45.0,87.0,269.0,124.0,101.0,-364.0,-137.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.0,"n_if_ahead_10":111,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-364,"desc":"Their spike: -364g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Varus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-14.0,-56.0,-161.0,-164.0,-172.0,-228.0,-342.0,-342.0,-410.0,-480.0,-508.0,-304.0,-289.0,-701.0,-595.5,-2122.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.1,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2122,"desc":"Their spike: -2122g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":746,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":746,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":746,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":746,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.3,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.3},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,13.0,30.0,51.0,65.0,75.0,90.5,125.0,139.0,232.0,248.5,294.5,203.0,243.0,75.0,-10.0,-88.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":426,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Zac","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":68,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":68,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":68,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":68,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":67.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.5,59.5,72.0,92.5,112.0,119.5,130.0,176.5,139.5,222.0,362.5,174.0,264.5,137.0,114.0,150.0,827.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":827,"desc":"Your spike: +827g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Viego","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":70,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":70,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":70,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":70,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,14.0,5.5,-27.0,-34.0,-12.0,-66.5,-2.0,35.0,27.5,-76.5,-32.0,-183.5,-352.0,390.0,231.0,-640.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-640,"desc":"Their spike: -640g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":441,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":441,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":441,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":441,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.9,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,7.0,7.0,16.0,42.0,49.0,18.0,14.0,73.0,53.5,66.0,22.0,56.0,140.0,238.5,87.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.7,"n_if_ahead_10":227,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Corki","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":132,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":132,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":132,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":132,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":63.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-3.5,14.5,41.0,40.5,75.0,59.5,115.5,38.0,-4.0,145.0,81.5,112.0,53.0,233.0,-0.5,335.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.2,"n_if_ahead_10":69,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":335,"desc":"Your spike: +335g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Zyra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.3,"upper":68.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.0,12.0,33.0,81.0,125.0,139.0,143.0,146.0,197.0,153.0,277.0,430.0,349.0,828.0,1258.0,1254.0,1402.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.2,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1402,"desc":"Your spike: +1402g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Gragas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":160,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":160,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":160,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":160,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":62.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.5,55.0,84.0,127.5,119.0,87.5,118.0,117.5,140.0,62.0,246.0,60.0,170.0,165.5,73.0,49.0,32.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":95,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Kled","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":69.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,37.0,-12.0,-36.5,-30.5,-4.0,-78.0,-175.0,-110.0,223.0,-18.0,-123.0,57.0,200.0,-138.5,-643.0,-1754.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.2,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1754,"desc":"Their spike: -1754g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Sett","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":69.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.5,9.5,10.5,3.0,-28.5,-14.0,35.5,71.5,-15.5,39.0,95.5,426.5,537.0,248.5,63.5,457.0,396.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":45,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (45% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":537,"desc":"Your spike: +537g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Singed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":86,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":86,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":86,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":86,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":64.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,25.0,47.5,54.5,61.5,151.5,160.0,122.5,154.5,199.0,274.5,464.5,682.5,268.0,429.0,273.0,824.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":51,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":43,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (43% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":824,"desc":"Your spike: +824g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":151,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":151,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":151,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":151,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.4,"upper":62.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,2.0,9.0,27.0,-46.0,-27.0,-39.0,-124.0,-60.0,-169.0,-231.5,-296.0,-371.0,-702.0,-984.0,-1202.0,-1858.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":70,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1858,"desc":"Their spike: -1858g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Brand","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":356,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":356,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":356,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":356,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.0,0.0,-19.0,-23.5,-15.5,-15.0,-3.0,5.0,-34.5,84.0,162.0,202.0,253.0,354.0,577.0,769.0,677.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.9,"n_if_ahead_10":172,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":769,"desc":"Your spike: +769g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1245,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1245,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1245,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1245,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.0,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,9.0,7.0,4.0,4.0,6.0,10.0,1.0,31.0,28.0,67.0,7.0,45.0,46.5,2.0,43.0,113.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":645,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":797,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":797,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":797,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":797,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":57.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,14.0,39.0,61.0,110.0,155.0,204.0,270.0,338.0,435.0,538.0,570.0,625.0,558.0,466.0,301.0,-233.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.3,"n_if_ahead_10":541,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":625,"desc":"Your spike: +625g at 18:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":460,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":460,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":460,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":460,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.1,"upper":58.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-28.0,-40.0,-47.5,-44.5,-22.0,-34.0,-19.0,-18.0,68.5,49.0,56.0,65.0,45.5,63.0,-70.0,-51.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.1,"n_if_ahead_10":225,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Karma","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":101,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":101,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":101,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":101,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,26.0,53.0,67.0,87.0,112.0,178.0,140.0,234.0,212.0,365.0,470.0,364.0,673.5,944.0,928.5,946.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.1,"n_if_ahead_10":65,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":946,"desc":"Your spike: +946g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":287,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":287,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":287,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":287,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":59.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,12.0,25.0,61.0,95.0,95.0,134.0,183.0,265.0,382.0,461.0,439.0,456.0,416.5,289.0,-81.5,-298.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.8,"n_if_ahead_10":188,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":840,"value":461,"desc":"Your spike: +461g at 14:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":84,"desc":"Winners average 84 CS at 10:00 (losers: 75)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Teemo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":69.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.5,17.0,103.0,88.0,99.0,166.5,164.0,350.5,479.0,543.5,621.0,536.5,576.0,924.0,930.0,1543.0,1416.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2342,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2342,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2342,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2342,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":11,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.9,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,15.0,-7.0,-14.0,-23.0,-13.5,-17.5,-0.5,23.5,57.0,121.5,125.0,190.0,312.0,303.0,466.0,545.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":1192,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":545,"desc":"Your spike: +545g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1226,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1226,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1226,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1226,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-1.5,0.0,0.5,0.0,-7.0,10.5,18.0,29.0,52.0,101.0,218.0,216.5,323.0,253.0,125.0,-74.0,-303.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":661,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":323,"desc":"Your spike: +323g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Vayne","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":67.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.0,-5.0,-3.0,-31.0,-91.0,14.0,36.0,-41.0,-12.5,61.0,175.0,107.0,465.5,-277.0,-124.5,-396.5,-851.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":77.8,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1635,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1635,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1635,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1635,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":9,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-36.0,-71.0,-108.0,-157.0,-210.0,-260.0,-337.0,-376.0,-441.0,-501.5,-531.5,-684.5,-765.5,-855.0,-1060.5,-1232.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.3,"n_if_ahead_10":511,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1232,"desc":"Their spike: -1232g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":224,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":224,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":224,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":224,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-35.0,-68.0,-105.5,-126.5,-182.5,-264.0,-306.0,-361.5,-512.0,-767.5,-825.5,-880.0,-1039.0,-1277.0,-1236.0,-1233.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":71,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1277,"desc":"Their spike: -1277g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1169,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1169,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1169,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1169,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,18.0,18.0,39.0,30.0,29.0,-16.0,-7.0,-30.0,12.5,18.0,45.0,52.0,49.5,101.0,50.0,-56.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":560,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1182,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1182,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1182,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1182,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-28.0,-82.0,-114.0,-132.5,-175.5,-188.0,-230.0,-248.0,-286.0,-317.0,-318.5,-300.5,-297.0,-329.0,-456.0,-466.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":437,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-466,"desc":"Their spike: -466g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1587,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1587,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1587,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1587,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,35.0,52.0,70.0,76.0,96.0,98.0,98.0,133.0,221.0,262.0,278.0,415.0,549.0,740.0,865.5,944.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.7,"n_if_ahead_10":933,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":944,"desc":"Your spike: +944g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Lucian","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":56,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":56,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":56,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":56,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.0,"upper":64.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-65.5,-129.5,-152.0,-172.0,-199.5,-304.5,-316.5,-373.0,-299.0,-311.0,-270.0,-579.5,-819.0,-1279.0,-884.0,-2315.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.5,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":40,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (40% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2315,"desc":"Their spike: -2315g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Chogath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":234,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":234,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":234,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":234,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.3,"upper":58.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,14.0,29.5,38.0,70.5,92.5,113.5,137.0,121.5,163.0,243.0,351.0,316.0,202.0,221.0,203.0,-183.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.8,"n_if_ahead_10":138,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":351,"desc":"Your spike: +351g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1845,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1845,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1845,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1845,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.1,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,9.0,1.0,-1.0,-19.0,-53.0,-89.0,-93.0,-100.0,-107.5,-138.5,-141.0,-228.0,-324.0,-342.0,-391.0,-474.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":806,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-474,"desc":"Their spike: -474g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Neeko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":199,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":199,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":199,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":199,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":58.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,14.0,-11.0,-21.0,-24.0,-28.0,-52.0,-63.0,-11.0,8.0,-69.0,68.0,-6.5,16.5,-216.0,-260.5,-147.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":99,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1564,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1564,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1564,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1564,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-7.0,-14.0,-9.0,-9.0,-11.5,-5.0,7.0,10.0,21.0,52.0,46.5,12.5,63.5,-16.5,16.0,-53.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":788,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":334,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":334,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":334,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":334,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-7.5,-39.0,-56.0,-64.5,-98.0,-143.0,-178.5,-208.0,-261.5,-340.0,-355.5,-507.0,-899.0,-1189.0,-1433.0,-1076.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.6,"n_if_ahead_10":130,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1433,"desc":"Their spike: -1433g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":842,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":842,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":842,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":842,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-56.0,-124.0,-187.0,-248.0,-363.0,-415.0,-495.0,-565.0,-673.0,-925.0,-1061.5,-1355.0,-1510.0,-1830.0,-1939.0,-2260.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":234,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2260,"desc":"Their spike: -2260g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2459,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2459,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2459,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2459,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.8,"upper":52.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,18.0,23.0,22.0,27.0,33.0,33.0,27.0,39.0,66.0,82.0,53.0,39.0,-79.5,-104.5,-199.0,-183.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":1293,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:00)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1757,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1757,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1757,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1757,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,9.0,18.0,24.0,26.0,14.0,29.0,12.0,31.0,26.0,1.5,-84.0,-199.0,-315.0,-395.0,-383.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.5,"n_if_ahead_10":894,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-395,"desc":"Their spike: -395g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":154,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":154,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":154,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":154,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.8,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-20.5,-41.0,-61.0,-92.5,-133.0,-161.5,-230.0,-161.0,-155.5,-190.0,-207.0,-170.5,-338.0,-239.5,-658.0,-1007.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1007,"desc":"Their spike: -1007g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 75)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":239,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":239,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":239,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":239,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.3,"upper":56.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,63.0,110.0,172.0,228.0,267.0,320.0,321.0,423.0,553.5,720.5,791.0,678.5,355.5,80.0,233.0,-39.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.0,"n_if_ahead_10":175,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":791,"desc":"Your spike: +791g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1043,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1043,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1043,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1043,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.0,-7.0,-51.0,-77.0,-126.0,-190.0,-245.0,-277.0,-317.0,-352.5,-440.0,-490.5,-575.0,-670.0,-800.0,-905.5,-956.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":347,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-956,"desc":"Their spike: -956g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":174,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":174,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":174,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":174,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,45.0,58.5,102.5,98.0,107.5,96.0,108.5,107.0,121.0,122.0,95.0,-8.5,-236.0,-682.0,-709.0,-1256.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.2,"n_if_ahead_10":98,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1256,"desc":"Their spike: -1256g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":83,"desc":"Winners average 83 CS at 10:00 (losers: 77)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":174,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":174,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":174,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":174,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.0,51.0,76.0,148.5,185.5,232.0,240.5,322.5,346.5,326.5,455.5,489.0,275.0,204.0,285.0,108.0,430.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":121,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":489,"desc":"Your spike: +489g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":378,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":378,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":378,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":378,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.5,36.0,53.0,94.5,99.5,125.5,168.0,190.0,243.5,251.0,243.0,221.0,199.0,131.0,214.5,10.0,118.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.7,"n_if_ahead_10":243,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1215,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1215,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1215,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1215,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.4,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-5.0,-4.0,1.0,7.0,8.0,23.0,21.0,29.0,62.0,100.0,64.0,48.0,-102.5,-208.0,-363.0,-346.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":628,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-363,"desc":"Their spike: -363g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3585,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3585,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3585,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3585,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":51.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-14.0,-30.0,-24.0,-19.0,-16.0,-13.0,-22.0,-29.0,-28.5,-42.0,-50.0,-67.0,-83.0,-144.5,-160.0,-178.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":1725,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1118,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1118,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1118,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1118,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.2,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,14.0,21.0,27.0,21.0,-1.5,8.0,3.5,-33.0,-8.5,-29.0,-50.0,-45.5,-134.0,-177.0,-219.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.2,"n_if_ahead_10":560,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":681,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":681,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":681,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":681,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,7.0,7.0,27.0,49.0,50.0,73.0,65.0,118.0,109.0,173.0,61.0,51.0,-43.0,-301.0,-61.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":365,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-301,"desc":"Their spike: -301g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":192,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":192,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":192,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":192,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.0,"upper":57.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.5,34.0,49.0,64.5,67.5,88.0,147.0,158.5,141.0,154.0,74.0,69.0,-234.0,-464.0,-558.5,-637.0,-857.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.3,"n_if_ahead_10":117,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-857,"desc":"Their spike: -857g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1469,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1469,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1469,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1469,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,27.0,40.0,50.0,82.0,103.0,149.0,158.0,155.0,188.0,225.0,201.0,124.0,36.0,-121.0,-373.0,-585.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":889,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-585,"desc":"Their spike: -585g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1563,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1563,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1563,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1563,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.2,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,8.0,8.0,7.0,-19.0,-32.0,-45.0,-64.0,-47.0,-57.5,-69.5,-92.0,-84.0,-116.0,-119.5,-208.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.9,"n_if_ahead_10":714,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":368,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":368,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":368,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":368,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-14.0,-11.5,-2.5,-0.5,-2.0,-20.5,-90.0,-66.0,-103.0,-118.0,-181.0,-355.0,-368.5,-689.0,-712.0,-712.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":170,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-712,"desc":"Their spike: -712g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2127,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2127,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2127,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2127,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-36.0,-77.0,-106.0,-135.0,-176.0,-214.0,-249.0,-284.0,-310.0,-358.0,-379.5,-508.0,-681.0,-813.0,-914.0,-1157.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":755,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1157,"desc":"Their spike: -1157g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":657,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":657,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":657,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":657,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.4,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,2.0,35.0,42.0,46.0,65.0,115.0,141.0,162.0,282.0,338.5,383.5,294.0,357.0,231.0,158.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.2,"n_if_ahead_10":389,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":383,"desc":"Your spike: +383g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":55,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":55,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":55,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":55,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":61.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,-14.0,51.0,-59.0,-162.0,-155.0,-74.0,-90.0,-274.0,-352.0,-561.0,-600.0,-560.0,-375.5,80.0,-102.0,138.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-600,"desc":"Their spike: -600g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":319,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:19)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1043,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1043,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1043,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1043,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,0.0,-42.0,-46.0,-60.0,-101.0,-122.0,-128.0,-147.0,-173.0,-272.0,-244.5,-427.0,-415.0,-593.0,-754.5,-1117.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":447,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1117,"desc":"Their spike: -1117g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":839,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":839,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":839,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":839,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":52.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,4.0,2.0,-2.0,6.0,8.0,-10.0,-23.0,13.0,-2.0,-46.0,-19.0,11.0,-13.0,-64.0,-20.0,38.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":423,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":174,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":174,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":174,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":174,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,64.0,106.5,139.5,160.0,182.5,171.5,232.5,229.5,293.5,419.0,388.0,292.5,369.5,714.0,733.0,532.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.7,"n_if_ahead_10":106,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":733,"desc":"Your spike: +733g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2295,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2295,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2295,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2295,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":50.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-11.0,-40.0,-47.0,-47.0,-58.0,-54.0,-67.0,-97.0,-150.0,-181.0,-203.0,-302.0,-433.0,-608.0,-795.0,-987.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":1005,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":49,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (49% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-987,"desc":"Their spike: -987g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":794,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":794,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":794,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":794,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,67.5,107.0,152.0,213.0,229.0,233.0,295.0,302.5,293.5,359.0,344.0,329.0,266.0,-146.0,-516.0,-777.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.6,"n_if_ahead_10":518,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 27 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-777,"desc":"Their spike: -777g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1739,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2123,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2123,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2123,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,28.0,-10.0,-30.0,-68.0,-107.0,-186.0,-215.0,-256.0,-347.0,-457.0,-503.0,-625.0,-870.0,-1054.0,-1225.5,-1508.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.6,"n_if_ahead_10":779,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1508,"desc":"Their spike: -1508g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Talon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":615,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":615,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":615,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":615,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-14.0,-47.0,-56.0,-85.0,-121.0,-163.0,-162.0,-149.0,-201.0,-197.0,-192.0,-309.0,-447.0,-702.0,-879.5,-1031.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":258,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1031,"desc":"Their spike: -1031g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2011,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2011,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2011,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2011,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,42.0,22.0,-5.0,-27.0,-75.0,-117.0,-143.0,-160.0,-199.0,-324.0,-386.0,-505.5,-680.5,-819.0,-1034.5,-1114.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.4,"n_if_ahead_10":852,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1114,"desc":"Their spike: -1114g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Ahri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3403,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3403,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3403,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3403,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":50.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,10.0,15.0,27.0,22.0,13.0,8.0,0.0,-22.0,-16.0,-31.5,-59.5,-97.5,-170.0,-158.0,-226.0,-259.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":1652,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Camille","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":23,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.4,"upper":65.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,-32.0,0.0,63.0,42.0,84.0,75.0,95.0,210.0,142.0,352.0,395.0,422.0,-6.0,-179.0,-616.0,-1766.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":23,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.7,"upper":66.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,49.0,126.0,224.0,379.0,450.0,565.0,505.0,600.0,855.0,1074.0,866.0,1302.0,1453.0,1624.5,1696.0,1904.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Graves","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":23,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.7,"upper":66.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,0.0,3.0,-21.0,68.0,-32.0,-4.0,-3.0,-109.0,99.0,-319.0,-484.0,-654.0,-878.5,-1990.0,-1599.5,-1944.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":38.5,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1519,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1519,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1519,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1519,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.0,-54.0,-79.0,-101.0,-106.0,-118.0,-122.0,-157.0,-180.0,-216.0,-247.0,-276.0,-320.0,-445.0,-605.5,-773.0,-1014.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":621,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1014,"desc":"Their spike: -1014g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Nunu","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":75,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":75,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":75,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":75,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.1,"upper":59.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,25.0,6.0,26.0,37.0,82.0,36.0,63.0,203.0,72.0,133.0,77.0,379.0,158.0,118.5,346.5,754.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.1,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":754,"desc":"Your spike: +754g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1197,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1197,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1197,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1197,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-9.0,-31.0,-78.0,-101.0,-131.0,-165.0,-207.0,-239.0,-250.0,-327.0,-386.0,-419.0,-405.0,-454.0,-373.5,-333.0,-294.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":452,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-454,"desc":"Their spike: -454g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":819,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":819,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":819,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":819,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.3,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-24.0,-49.0,-56.0,-82.0,-156.0,-186.0,-258.0,-315.0,-364.5,-459.5,-490.0,-688.0,-904.0,-1060.0,-1049.0,-1266.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.4,"n_if_ahead_10":311,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1266,"desc":"Their spike: -1266g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":319,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":319,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":319,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":319,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,24.0,42.0,45.0,35.0,50.0,30.0,-34.0,-6.0,12.0,113.0,85.0,294.0,302.5,485.0,612.0,794.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.1,"n_if_ahead_10":155,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":794,"desc":"Your spike: +794g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Kennen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":136,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":136,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":136,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":136,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.9,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,31.5,26.5,41.5,62.5,35.0,24.5,20.0,33.5,58.5,-81.0,-150.5,-123.0,-70.0,-200.5,-372.0,-259.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-372,"desc":"Their spike: -372g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 76)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":182,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":182,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":182,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":182,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.6,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,48.0,66.5,72.5,121.5,110.0,175.0,159.0,183.0,233.0,171.5,153.0,-51.5,-367.0,-965.0,-1343.0,-1823.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.7,"n_if_ahead_10":116,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1823,"desc":"Their spike: -1823g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":304,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:04 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":45,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":45,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":45,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":45,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.9,"upper":60.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[1.0,14.0,-124.0,-173.0,-112.0,-73.0,-48.0,-84.0,-115.0,28.0,-10.0,-48.0,-318.0,-432.0,-1163.0,-489.0,-1577.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1577,"desc":"Their spike: -1577g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":80,"desc":"Winners average 80 CS at 10:00 (losers: 73)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":720,"desc":"Best trade window at 12:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":73,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":73,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":73,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":73,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-28.0,-28.0,-54.0,-33.0,-47.0,-6.0,3.0,-69.0,-173.0,-203.0,-307.0,-179.5,-399.0,-966.0,-1655.5,-1372.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1655,"desc":"Their spike: -1655g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.5,"upper":64.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[9.0,42.0,49.0,142.5,180.5,113.5,117.0,192.0,318.5,149.0,58.0,-55.0,-64.5,-413.0,-156.0,-783.0,-1233.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Rumble","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":56,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":56,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":56,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":56,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.0,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.5,27.0,3.5,39.0,82.0,62.5,84.0,6.0,180.5,399.5,485.5,641.0,660.5,919.0,899.5,751.0,1065.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.8,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1065,"desc":"Your spike: +1065g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":708,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":708,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":708,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":708,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.7,"upper":50.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,6.5,-42.5,-114.0,-167.0,-272.5,-307.5,-355.0,-421.0,-514.5,-516.0,-569.0,-779.5,-845.0,-920.0,-1083.0,-1094.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":223,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1094,"desc":"Their spike: -1094g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Zilean","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":109,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":109,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":109,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":109,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.8,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.0,40.0,56.0,94.0,118.0,194.0,200.0,227.0,295.0,369.0,549.0,510.0,863.0,1138.5,1060.0,1174.0,1194.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.6,"n_if_ahead_10":76,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1194,"desc":"Your spike: +1194g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":131,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":131,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":131,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":131,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.5,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.0,-7.0,-1.0,-6.0,-15.0,1.0,-99.0,-105.0,-79.0,29.0,53.0,74.0,340.5,310.5,602.0,443.0,485.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":602,"desc":"Your spike: +602g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":95,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":95,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":95,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":95,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.0,21.0,10.0,27.0,19.0,-18.0,-4.0,-115.0,-98.0,-222.0,-349.0,-412.0,-165.0,-185.5,-472.0,-819.0,-943.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-943,"desc":"Their spike: -943g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2402,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2402,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2402,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":77,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2402,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":19,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":47.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":2.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[11.0,20.0,11.0,10.0,-22.0,-52.0,-80.5,-102.5,-124.0,-180.0,-225.0,-289.0,-320.0,-378.0,-444.5,-549.0,-534.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.7,"n_if_ahead_10":1028,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-549,"desc":"Their spike: -549g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":419,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":419,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":419,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":67,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":419,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":19,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.4,"upper":49.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,4.0,-6.0,-11.0,-59.0,-85.0,-96.0,-146.0,-204.0,-244.0,-252.0,-245.0,-124.0,-69.0,-57.0,-46.0,-38.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.7,"n_if_ahead_10":157,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":810,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":810,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":810,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":810,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":48.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-24.0,-59.0,-106.5,-183.0,-272.0,-353.5,-440.0,-499.5,-556.5,-659.0,-769.0,-825.0,-998.0,-1149.0,-1469.0,-1642.5,-1699.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.8,"n_if_ahead_10":194,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1699,"desc":"Their spike: -1699g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Yorick","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":83,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":83,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":83,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":83,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.4,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,0.0,2.0,-31.0,-80.0,-89.0,-94.0,-157.0,-122.0,-229.0,-275.5,-96.0,-81.0,175.0,-114.0,-437.0,-866.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-866,"desc":"Their spike: -866g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":77,"desc":"Winners average 77 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":45,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":45,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":45,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":45,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.9,"upper":58.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,80.0,140.0,221.0,378.0,412.0,382.0,504.0,475.0,406.0,499.0,355.0,378.0,-147.0,-234.0,-332.0,-1340.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.5,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1340,"desc":"Their spike: -1340g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1716,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":540,"desc":"Best trade window at 9:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":97,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":97,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":97,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":97,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,21.0,46.0,33.0,31.0,62.0,39.0,76.0,141.0,123.0,102.0,264.0,260.0,376.0,548.0,443.5,475.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.1,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":548,"desc":"Your spike: +548g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Briar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":29.9,"upper":59.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[60.0,77.0,-43.0,93.0,48.0,-112.0,28.0,-46.0,30.0,-80.0,-128.0,-11.0,3.0,80.0,-723.5,-322.0,-760.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-760,"desc":"Their spike: -760g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Twitch","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":67,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":67,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":67,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":67,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.1,"upper":55.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-7.0,-44.0,-22.0,-6.0,-127.0,-177.0,-330.0,-333.0,-422.0,-566.0,-696.0,-955.5,-1000.0,-734.0,-717.0,-1071.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1071,"desc":"Their spike: -1071g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Fizz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1348,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1348,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1348,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":77,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1348,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":45.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":4.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,-16.0,-74.0,-116.5,-153.0,-203.0,-237.0,-300.0,-325.0,-431.0,-547.0,-594.0,-801.5,-988.0,-1162.0,-1298.0,-1406.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.6,"n_if_ahead_10":438,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1406,"desc":"Their spike: -1406g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":51,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":51,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":51,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":51,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":6.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.5,"upper":56.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,54.0,104.0,137.0,128.0,177.0,45.0,146.0,113.0,38.0,16.0,-22.0,-14.5,-46.5,-220.0,-305.0,614.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":614,"desc":"Your spike: +614g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 76)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Jhin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":7.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.5,"upper":57.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.5,-44.0,-69.5,-90.5,-152.5,-190.5,-204.5,-184.5,-142.0,-211.0,-302.0,-219.0,-576.0,-708.5,-1119.0,-2004.0,-2389.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2389,"desc":"Their spike: -2389g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 71)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Quinn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":117,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":117,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":117,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":117,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":8.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.3,"upper":50.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,0.0,-17.0,16.0,42.0,44.0,35.0,3.0,36.0,155.0,47.0,-9.0,-1.0,-97.0,-788.0,-383.0,-80.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.2,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-788,"desc":"Their spike: -788g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":85,"desc":"Winners average 85 CS at 10:00 (losers: 78)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":92,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":92,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":92,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":92,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":9.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.8,"upper":50.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.5,2.0,-29.0,-45.0,-65.5,-118.5,-99.5,-210.5,-261.5,-213.0,-231.0,-315.0,-376.0,-331.0,-392.0,-857.5,-886.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.6,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-886,"desc":"Their spike: -886g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Hwei","enemy":"Renekton","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":49.9,"edge_pp":14.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":23.0,"upper":50.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,38.0,-1.5,-34.5,-16.0,-82.5,-188.5,-145.5,-76.5,-89.5,-219.0,-288.5,166.0,207.0,704.0,889.5,1561.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":33.3,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1561,"desc":"Your spike: +1561g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 73)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}