{"matchups":[{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Sion","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":15.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.5,"upper":78.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-10.0,-19.0,-17.0,-55.0,-164.0,-166.0,-183.0,-211.0,-185.0,-147.0,-369.0,-168.0,-329.0,-143.0,-14.5,657.5,294.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.7,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":657,"desc":"Your spike: +657g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":420,"value":384,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:00 (fast: 6:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Skarner","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":150,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":150,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":150,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":150,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":11.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":54.0,"upper":69.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":59.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,12.0,30.5,34.0,59.5,65.0,75.0,66.5,95.5,301.0,455.5,564.0,741.0,1091.0,1462.0,1607.0,1673.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.5,"n_if_ahead_10":83,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1673,"desc":"Your spike: +1673g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":411,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:51 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Chogath","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":57,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":57,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":57,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":57,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":10.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":72.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-24.0,0.0,-10.0,-55.0,-153.0,-95.0,-156.0,-131.0,-74.0,-65.0,81.0,14.0,198.0,392.0,723.0,766.0,1491.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":31,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (31% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1491,"desc":"Your spike: +1491g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":398,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:38)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Fizz","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":65,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":65,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":65,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":65,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":7.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":69.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-15.0,0.0,-81.0,-62.0,-73.0,-127.0,-167.0,-266.0,-350.0,-143.0,-118.0,-233.0,-227.0,-544.0,-171.0,-179.0,-535.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-544,"desc":"Their spike: -544g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":416,"value":389,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:56 (fast: 6:29)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Yorick","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":7.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.8,"upper":73.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,37.0,61.0,76.0,80.0,99.0,128.0,71.0,357.0,349.0,315.0,534.5,87.0,-211.5,274.0,294.0,896.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Sejuani","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":249,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":249,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":249,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":249,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":6.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":63.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,-19.0,-5.0,-3.0,40.0,79.0,138.0,260.0,329.0,367.5,603.0,989.0,1257.0,1781.0,2298.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.3,"n_if_ahead_10":150,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2298,"desc":"Your spike: +2298g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":415,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:55 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Riven","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":70.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-15.0,2.5,-111.5,-90.5,-107.5,-135.0,-199.0,-334.0,-313.0,-309.5,-389.5,-687.0,-913.0,-1137.0,-663.0,-604.5,30.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1137,"desc":"Their spike: -1137g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":414,"value":383,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:54 (fast: 6:23)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":173,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":173,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":173,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":173,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":63.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,11.0,9.0,25.0,-29.0,-58.0,-46.0,-80.0,-32.0,-5.0,-37.0,49.5,376.0,372.0,771.0,659.5,1097.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.4,"n_if_ahead_10":81,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1097,"desc":"Your spike: +1097g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":420,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:00 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Sylas","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":641,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":641,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":641,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":641,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.1,"upper":59.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,10.0,0.0,-10.0,-55.0,-99.0,-112.0,-123.0,-132.0,-178.0,-99.0,-64.0,54.0,294.0,439.0,792.5,1087.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.3,"n_if_ahead_10":276,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1087,"desc":"Your spike: +1087g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":389,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:29)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Rumble","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":72.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-24.0,-78.0,-79.0,-119.0,-83.0,-269.0,-254.0,-459.0,-298.0,-427.0,-438.0,-219.0,37.0,-53.5,-260.0,-414.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":355,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":355,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":355,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":355,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.3,"upper":60.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-5.0,-17.0,-21.0,-31.0,-72.0,-68.0,-123.0,-78.0,-101.0,-18.0,-207.5,-2.0,153.0,334.0,834.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.9,"n_if_ahead_10":145,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":834,"desc":"Your spike: +834g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":407,"value":381,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:47 (fast: 6:21)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":442,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":442,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":442,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":442,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":60.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-4.5,-21.5,-16.0,-55.5,-44.5,-56.0,-32.5,-31.0,84.0,116.5,303.0,538.0,602.0,984.0,1388.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":211,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":29,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (29% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1388,"desc":"Your spike: +1388g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":385,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":385,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":385,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":385,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.3,"upper":60.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-46.0,10.0,-20.0,-33.0,-52.0,-63.0,-94.0,-123.0,31.0,60.0,106.5,359.0,678.5,900.0,1126.5,1303.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.5,"n_if_ahead_10":170,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1303,"desc":"Your spike: +1303g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":412,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:52 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Brand","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":66.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.5,0.0,33.0,-48.0,-33.5,-82.5,-179.0,-102.0,-122.0,-47.5,160.0,199.0,401.0,486.0,832.0,1805.5,1724.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1805,"desc":"Your spike: +1805g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":414,"value":382,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:54 (fast: 6:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Kindred","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":291,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":291,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":291,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":291,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":60.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,0.0,-41.0,-102.0,-139.0,-120.0,-149.0,-108.0,-97.5,-141.5,-76.5,-182.0,-203.0,-2.0,-216.0,10.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.8,"n_if_ahead_10":128,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":432,"value":402,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:12 (fast: 6:42)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Zac","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":423,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":423,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":423,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":423,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,10.0,9.0,29.0,25.0,2.0,47.0,56.0,92.0,163.0,240.0,284.0,432.0,625.5,1033.0,1421.5,1869.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.5,"n_if_ahead_10":231,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1869,"desc":"Your spike: +1869g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":406,"value":385,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:46 (fast: 6:25)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Nocturne","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":726,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":726,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":726,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":726,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":58.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-8.0,-34.5,-60.0,-90.0,-132.0,-154.0,-159.0,-127.0,-101.0,-53.0,24.0,183.5,490.0,817.5,1138.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.7,"n_if_ahead_10":289,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1138,"desc":"Your spike: +1138g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":390,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:30)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":234,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":234,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":234,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":234,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.9,"upper":60.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-70.5,-173.0,-237.5,-286.5,-320.0,-347.0,-414.5,-545.0,-635.0,-724.0,-708.0,-773.0,-600.0,-560.0,-675.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":76,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-773,"desc":"Their spike: -773g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":389,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:29)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Vi","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":454,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":454,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":454,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":454,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.6,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.0,-5.0,-17.5,-14.5,21.0,61.0,227.0,130.0,249.0,480.0,798.0,978.0,1203.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.2,"n_if_ahead_10":232,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1203,"desc":"Your spike: +1203g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":416,"value":388,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:56 (fast: 6:28)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":563,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":563,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":563,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":563,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.7,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,19.0,-3.0,-19.0,-23.0,-53.0,-45.0,-19.0,-48.0,-22.0,6.0,96.0,262.0,627.5,914.0,1125.5,1363.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.2,"n_if_ahead_10":262,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1363,"desc":"Your spike: +1363g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Zyra","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":151,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":151,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":151,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":151,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":61.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-75.0,-23.0,-100.0,-91.0,-131.0,-156.0,-201.0,-180.0,-130.0,-59.0,25.0,144.0,531.5,799.0,1217.5,1021.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1217,"desc":"Your spike: +1217g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":525,"desc":"Survive to 8:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":406,"value":381,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:46 (fast: 6:21)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Nasus","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":112,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":112,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":112,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":62.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[69.5,111.5,126.0,180.0,210.0,146.5,202.0,96.0,228.5,262.5,425.0,487.5,440.0,520.0,747.0,970.0,1086.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1086,"desc":"Your spike: +1086g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":413,"value":383,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:53 (fast: 6:23)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":206,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":206,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":206,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":206,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,-16.5,-55.5,-95.5,-113.0,-93.0,-128.0,-114.5,-120.0,-53.0,142.5,285.0,702.0,863.0,1002.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.6,"n_if_ahead_10":90,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1002,"desc":"Your spike: +1002g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":389,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:29)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Trundle","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":108,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":108,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":108,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":108,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":61.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-5.0,-78.5,-52.5,-77.0,-139.5,-105.5,-179.5,-124.5,-116.5,-136.0,-81.0,278.0,64.5,372.5,609.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.6,"n_if_ahead_10":46,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":609,"desc":"Your spike: +609g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":419,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:59 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Elise","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":281,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":281,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":281,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":281,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-10.0,-66.0,-97.0,-127.0,-154.0,-144.0,-190.0,-126.0,-89.0,-4.0,125.5,200.0,442.0,838.0,1310.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.9,"n_if_ahead_10":119,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":40,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (40% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1310,"desc":"Your spike: +1310g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":419,"value":393,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:59 (fast: 6:33)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Shaco","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":424,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":424,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":424,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":424,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":57.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-25.0,-42.0,-141.0,-175.0,-210.0,-243.0,-247.5,-294.0,-301.0,-281.0,-313.5,-146.0,-11.5,157.5,457.0,359.0,532.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.4,"n_if_ahead_10":141,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":532,"desc":"Your spike: +532g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":435,"desc":"Survive to 7:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":425,"value":399,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:05 (fast: 6:39)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Malphite","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":302,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":302,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":302,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":302,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.7,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,-2.0,-6.5,-3.0,-8.5,2.5,57.5,99.5,201.5,226.5,506.5,911.0,1265.0,1480.0,1892.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":159,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1892,"desc":"Your spike: +1892g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":410,"value":386,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:50 (fast: 6:26)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Jayce","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":370,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":370,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":370,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":370,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":57.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-5.0,-75.0,-112.5,-225.0,-283.0,-328.0,-357.0,-425.5,-551.0,-742.0,-830.5,-1097.0,-1077.5,-1173.0,-1168.0,-1363.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":90,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1363,"desc":"Their spike: -1363g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":411,"value":382,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:51 (fast: 6:22)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Briar","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":582,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":582,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":582,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":582,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":56.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-54.0,-118.0,-171.0,-205.0,-244.5,-268.0,-306.5,-370.5,-320.0,-386.0,-333.5,-354.5,-387.0,-307.0,-9.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":219,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-387,"desc":"Their spike: -387g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":419,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:59 (fast: 6:27)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Amumu","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":290,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":290,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":290,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":290,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,32.0,45.0,60.5,44.5,16.5,31.0,86.0,189.0,260.0,313.0,664.0,1094.0,1421.0,1700.0,1888.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":156,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":31,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (31% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1888,"desc":"Your spike: +1888g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":413,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:53 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"JarvanIV","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":879,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":879,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":879,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":879,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.2,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-39.0,-70.0,-101.0,-123.0,-112.0,-93.0,-77.0,0.0,21.0,-5.0,206.5,482.0,774.0,1173.0,1233.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":413,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":37,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (37% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1233,"desc":"Your spike: +1233g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":415,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:55 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Rengar","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":490,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":490,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":490,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":490,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-46.5,-80.0,-121.0,-172.5,-215.5,-257.0,-286.5,-320.0,-411.0,-428.0,-346.0,-324.5,-197.0,-220.5,-70.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.6,"n_if_ahead_10":160,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":43,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (43% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-428,"desc":"Their spike: -428g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":419,"value":395,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:59 (fast: 6:35)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1196,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1196,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1196,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1196,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-43.5,-88.0,-130.0,-176.5,-201.5,-192.5,-215.5,-204.5,-229.0,-234.5,-54.0,125.0,352.0,497.5,696.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.7,"n_if_ahead_10":468,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":696,"desc":"Your spike: +696g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":434,"desc":"Survive to 7:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":389,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:29)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":430,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":430,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":430,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":430,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.7,"upper":56.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-15.5,-66.5,-114.5,-140.5,-160.0,-196.5,-215.0,-254.0,-230.5,-262.0,-242.0,-336.0,-185.5,217.0,391.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.1,"n_if_ahead_10":171,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":50,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (50% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":391,"desc":"Your spike: +391g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":395,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:35)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Volibear","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":372,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":372,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":372,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":372,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-24.5,-25.5,-24.0,-53.5,-34.0,-32.5,-32.5,-13.0,-31.0,-108.0,84.5,341.5,354.0,449.0,971.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":177,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":33,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (33% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":971,"desc":"Your spike: +971g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":421,"value":392,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:01 (fast: 6:32)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":88,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":88,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":88,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":88,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.9,"upper":61.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-0.5,-8.5,-8.0,-50.5,-116.0,-124.0,-210.0,-149.0,-172.0,-168.0,-161.5,-247.5,-177.0,-108.5,338.0,156.5,951.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":38,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":951,"desc":"Your spike: +951g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":414,"value":386,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:54 (fast: 6:26)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Belveth","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":250,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":250,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":250,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":250,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-57.5,-85.0,-132.5,-150.0,-174.5,-146.5,-251.0,-226.0,-409.0,-393.0,-230.0,-161.0,-257.0,24.0,559.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.2,"n_if_ahead_10":98,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":559,"desc":"Your spike: +559g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":392,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:32)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Diana","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1004,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1004,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1004,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1004,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":53.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-49.5,-91.0,-116.5,-152.0,-169.0,-174.0,-187.0,-174.0,-214.0,-234.0,-215.5,-117.0,129.0,364.0,524.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":391,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":524,"desc":"Your spike: +524g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":415,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:55 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Karthus","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":233,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":233,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":233,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":233,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.8,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-15.0,-80.0,-64.0,-116.0,-131.0,-203.0,-299.0,-336.0,-391.0,-358.0,-391.0,-421.0,-257.0,-320.0,-233.0,-256.0,230.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":73,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-421,"desc":"Their spike: -421g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Graves","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1009,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1009,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1009,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1009,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-32.0,-85.0,-92.0,-141.0,-167.0,-202.0,-229.0,-224.0,-260.0,-297.0,-262.0,-249.0,-226.0,-200.0,-346.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":370,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-346,"desc":"Their spike: -346g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":392,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:32)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":347,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":347,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":347,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":347,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,30.0,35.0,49.0,22.0,-12.0,2.0,34.5,137.0,161.0,288.0,600.0,780.0,1165.0,1497.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":175,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1497,"desc":"Your spike: +1497g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":408,"value":384,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:48 (fast: 6:24)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Darius","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":102,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":102,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":102,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":102,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":59.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-16.5,-55.0,-120.0,-141.0,-128.0,-107.0,-97.5,-145.5,-244.0,-109.0,-80.0,-261.0,93.5,-1.5,22.0,139.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.1,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":427,"value":401,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:07 (fast: 6:41)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Jax","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":346,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":346,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":346,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":346,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,19.0,5.0,1.0,-15.0,-62.0,-78.5,-86.0,-83.5,-25.5,-75.5,-3.0,-12.0,72.0,174.0,687.0,956.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.8,"n_if_ahead_10":157,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":956,"desc":"Your spike: +956g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":415,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:55 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Shyvana","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":467,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":467,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":467,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":467,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-14.0,5.0,0.0,-10.0,-35.0,-63.0,-106.0,-132.0,-114.0,-98.0,-146.0,-101.5,21.0,160.0,577.5,743.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.0,"n_if_ahead_10":195,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":743,"desc":"Your spike: +743g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":413,"value":388,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:53 (fast: 6:28)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Lillia","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":393,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":393,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":393,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":393,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":54.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,0.0,-5.0,-43.0,-97.0,-85.0,-64.0,-78.0,-47.0,-49.0,-115.0,-33.0,115.0,397.0,653.5,812.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":179,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":812,"desc":"Your spike: +812g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Zed","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":423,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":423,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":423,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":423,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-65.0,-73.0,-168.0,-220.0,-253.0,-299.0,-374.0,-381.0,-408.0,-495.0,-569.0,-547.0,-444.0,-368.5,-361.0,-543.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":118,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-569,"desc":"Their spike: -569g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":416,"value":393,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:56 (fast: 6:33)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Gragas","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":100,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":100,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":100,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":100,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,9.5,-41.5,-90.5,-76.0,-98.0,-29.5,7.0,69.5,119.0,125.0,133.0,150.5,445.0,467.0,293.0,655.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":655,"desc":"Your spike: +655g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":417,"value":388,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:57 (fast: 6:28)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Talon","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":535,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":535,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":535,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":535,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-5.0,-46.0,-84.0,-109.0,-187.0,-239.0,-303.0,-375.0,-404.0,-452.0,-487.0,-807.0,-778.5,-937.0,-1156.0,-1021.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":178,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1156,"desc":"Their spike: -1156g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:27)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Viego","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1561,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1561,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1561,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1561,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-15.0,-53.0,-72.0,-141.0,-160.0,-163.0,-200.0,-232.0,-279.0,-305.0,-349.0,-331.5,-290.0,-218.0,-322.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.9,"n_if_ahead_10":641,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":29,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (29% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-349,"desc":"Their spike: -349g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:31)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Ekko","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":737,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":737,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":737,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":737,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.3,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-34.0,-72.0,-112.0,-135.0,-198.0,-239.0,-233.0,-315.0,-327.0,-273.0,-372.0,-287.5,-73.0,114.5,159.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":281,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":50,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (50% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-372,"desc":"Their spike: -372g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":414,"value":385,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:54 (fast: 6:25)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Khazix","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":664,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":664,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":664,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":664,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-85.0,-125.5,-183.5,-238.5,-263.5,-328.5,-441.0,-606.0,-617.0,-663.0,-790.0,-915.0,-1040.0,-1096.0,-1081.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.5,"n_if_ahead_10":197,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":30,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (30% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1096,"desc":"Their spike: -1096g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":419,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:59 (fast: 6:31)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Ivern","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":187,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":187,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":187,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":187,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[75.0,-63.0,-42.0,45.0,32.0,-6.0,36.0,78.0,101.0,136.0,252.5,356.5,609.0,965.0,1254.5,1720.0,2579.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":99,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2579,"desc":"Your spike: +2579g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":425,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:05 (fast: 6:31)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Maokai","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":33,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":33,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":33,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":33,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.5,"upper":64.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,0.0,66.0,-27.0,37.0,10.0,111.0,105.0,129.0,234.0,257.0,315.0,535.0,1327.5,1757.5,2078.0,2802.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.6,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,5.5,48.5,81.5,120.5,155.0,88.0,98.0,53.0,24.0,-54.0,393.5,410.0,440.0,519.0,111.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.9,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":519,"desc":"Your spike: +519g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":418,"value":398,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:58 (fast: 6:38)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Hecarim","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":409,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":409,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":409,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":409,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.6,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-79.0,-129.0,-147.0,-210.0,-285.0,-335.0,-351.0,-438.0,-472.0,-490.0,-550.0,-559.0,-459.0,-588.5,-334.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.9,"n_if_ahead_10":132,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":30,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (30% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-588,"desc":"Their spike: -588g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":415,"value":389,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:55 (fast: 6:29)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Poppy","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":58,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":58,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":58,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":58,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.9,"upper":60.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.5,10.0,-5.0,-12.0,-42.0,-158.0,-134.0,-151.0,-161.5,-19.0,82.0,2.0,456.0,928.0,1624.0,1776.5,1958.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1958,"desc":"Your spike: +1958g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":419,"value":386,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:59 (fast: 6:26)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Kayn","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":901,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":901,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":901,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":901,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-4.0,-50.0,-56.0,-88.0,-124.0,-129.0,-147.0,-98.0,-97.5,-85.0,-112.0,-179.0,-148.0,86.0,50.0,237.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":396,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":421,"value":392,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:01 (fast: 6:32)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Udyr","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":295,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":295,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":295,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":295,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.8,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-6.0,-81.0,-126.0,-135.0,-180.0,-235.0,-257.0,-265.0,-266.5,-341.5,-353.0,-307.0,-161.0,-70.0,70.0,673.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.7,"n_if_ahead_10":104,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":673,"desc":"Your spike: +673g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":424,"value":398,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:04 (fast: 6:38)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Nunu","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":366,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":366,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":366,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":366,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,20.0,-3.0,9.5,10.5,12.0,18.5,8.0,103.5,129.0,242.0,379.0,673.0,1201.0,1790.5,1832.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":189,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1832,"desc":"Your spike: +1832g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":409,"value":385,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:49 (fast: 6:25)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Olaf","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.0,"upper":63.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-10.0,-40.0,-69.5,-129.0,-130.0,-136.0,-112.5,-83.5,62.5,129.0,227.0,272.0,407.5,724.0,1118.5,1743.0,372.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Warwick","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":375,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":375,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":375,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":375,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,10.0,-20.0,-40.0,-63.0,-127.0,-111.0,-150.0,-167.0,-217.0,-200.0,-191.0,-225.0,-22.5,138.0,322.0,539.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":159,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":33,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (33% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":539,"desc":"Your spike: +539g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":425,"value":396,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:05 (fast: 6:36)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":163,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":163,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":163,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":163,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.1,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,0.0,0.0,17.0,-26.0,-26.0,-50.0,-59.0,-81.0,-93.0,-3.0,-102.0,-26.0,270.0,373.5,134.0,-281.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.2,"n_if_ahead_10":67,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":32,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (32% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":373,"desc":"Your spike: +373g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":408,"value":382,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:48 (fast: 6:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Nidalee","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":236,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":236,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":236,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":236,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.5,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-22.0,-119.0,-183.0,-266.5,-289.5,-339.5,-361.0,-409.0,-499.0,-437.0,-624.0,-441.0,-533.0,-219.0,-105.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.9,"n_if_ahead_10":77,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-624,"desc":"Their spike: -624g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":429,"value":400,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:09 (fast: 6:40)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"RekSai","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":269,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":269,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":269,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":269,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.9,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,-45.0,-70.0,-84.0,-136.0,-94.0,-156.0,-184.0,-160.0,-156.0,-135.0,-11.0,139.5,420.5,663.0,895.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.7,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":895,"desc":"Your spike: +895g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":404,"value":382,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:44 (fast: 6:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.5,"upper":61.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,-75.0,-171.0,-196.0,-178.0,-197.0,-175.0,-196.0,26.0,-248.0,-98.0,364.0,-398.0,-449.0,-828.0,-1269.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.3,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Shen","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":91,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":91,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":91,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":91,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.2,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,0.0,0.0,10.0,48.0,15.0,45.0,-6.0,80.0,61.0,178.0,381.5,492.0,868.0,1384.0,1806.0,2142.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.8,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2142,"desc":"Your spike: +2142g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":414,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:54 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Evelynn","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":281,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":281,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":281,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":281,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.1,"upper":50.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,5.0,-31.0,-16.0,-106.0,-159.0,-188.0,-214.0,-240.0,-220.0,-203.0,-85.0,83.5,165.0,316.5,599.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.2,"n_if_ahead_10":105,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":599,"desc":"Your spike: +599g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":416,"value":387,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:56 (fast: 6:27)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":556,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":556,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":556,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":71,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":556,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":6.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.7,"upper":48.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-10.0,-10.0,-30.0,-50.0,-45.0,-68.0,-144.5,-98.5,-135.0,-193.0,-310.0,-296.5,-297.5,-431.0,-400.0,-233.5,-437.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":224,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":31,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (31% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-437,"desc":"Their spike: -437g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":415,"value":391,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:55 (fast: 6:31)"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Teemo","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":6.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.6,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,63.5,40.0,119.5,66.5,105.5,76.0,82.0,168.0,187.0,166.5,122.0,337.0,347.0,892.0,1277.0,1518.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.4,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1518,"desc":"Your spike: +1518g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":421,"value":396,"desc":"Hit 6 by 7:01 (fast: 6:36)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Quinn","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":7.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.2,"upper":57.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,7.5,38.0,-20.0,-108.5,-159.5,-133.5,-161.0,-283.5,-331.5,-435.0,-655.0,-704.5,2.5,246.5,151.0,405.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-704,"desc":"Their spike: -704g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":411,"value":372,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:51 (fast: 6:12)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Rammus","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":219,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":219,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":219,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":219,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":8.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.7,"upper":48.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,29.0,25.0,16.0,28.0,27.0,88.0,140.0,174.0,325.0,434.0,436.0,728.5,1140.5,1269.0,1640.0,2192.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":44.0,"n_if_ahead_10":141,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2192,"desc":"Your spike: +2192g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":74,"desc":"Winners average 74 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":411,"value":382,"desc":"Hit 6 by 6:51 (fast: 6:22)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Gwen","enemy":"Morgana","role":"JUNGLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.9,"edge_pp":23.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":27.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":27.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":14.7,"upper":45.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":14.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,40.0,29.0,100.0,39.0,43.0,122.0,18.0,-207.0,4.0,-145.0,254.5,268.0,826.5,1983.5,1482.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":26.7,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}