{"matchups":[{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":16.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":67.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":67.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":82.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":11.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,13.0,-21.5,15.0,152.5,81.0,302.0,222.0,484.0,360.0,549.0,808.0,833.0,884.0,1479.5,982.0,346.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":77.8,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Jax","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":15.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":66.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":66.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":81.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,102.0,120.0,82.0,105.0,39.0,222.0,161.0,499.0,431.0,621.0,753.0,1124.0,1002.0,345.0,-52.0,-242.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Vayne","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":14.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":79.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":9.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-58.0,75.0,217.0,353.5,435.0,241.5,419.5,422.5,373.5,453.0,527.5,522.0,653.0,733.0,720.0,245.0,318.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":78.9,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Caitlyn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":47,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":47,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":47,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":47,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.4,"upper":74.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-73.0,-98.0,-10.0,27.0,-1.0,89.0,65.0,-8.0,2.0,68.0,205.0,189.0,831.0,965.0,172.0,-100.0,-1029.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.8,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1029,"desc":"Their spike: -1029g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":64,"desc":"Winners average 64 CS at 10:00 (losers: 52)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":31,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":73.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,219.5,336.5,341.5,435.5,478.5,464.5,431.5,441.0,604.0,642.0,692.0,968.0,605.0,409.0,530.0,552.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":968,"desc":"Your spike: +968g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":297,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 4:57)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":298,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":298,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":298,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":298,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":55.8,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":5.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":59.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-18.0,43.5,82.5,161.5,213.5,359.5,412.5,434.0,532.0,664.0,870.0,1042.0,1267.0,1162.0,1400.5,1423.5,957.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.9,"n_if_ahead_10":217,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1423,"desc":"Your spike: +1423g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Zyra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":9.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":75.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.5,32.5,216.5,258.5,285.5,296.0,290.5,340.0,387.0,557.5,605.5,733.5,1015.0,994.0,1338.5,1074.5,1900.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1570,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1570,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1570,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":77,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1570,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":8.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":56.9,"upper":61.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":6.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":59.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.5,-24.5,-1.0,-5.5,15.0,49.0,55.5,68.5,93.5,129.0,179.0,259.0,385.5,459.0,594.0,791.0,508.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.6,"n_if_ahead_10":837,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":791,"desc":"Your spike: +791g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Briar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":71.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,80.0,112.0,145.0,270.0,240.0,295.0,265.0,306.0,321.0,187.0,172.0,655.0,672.0,249.5,-434.0,-803.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.0,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":85,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (85% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-803,"desc":"Their spike: -803g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Yorick","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":72.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,36.0,66.0,90.0,84.0,182.0,149.0,175.0,98.0,25.0,133.0,45.0,9.5,-151.5,-126.0,272.0,168.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Nunu","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":53,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":53,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":53,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":53,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":70.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,137.0,212.0,178.0,318.0,421.0,479.0,621.0,842.0,827.0,1284.0,1345.0,1450.0,1895.0,1628.0,2333.0,3399.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":3399,"desc":"Your spike: +3399g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 73)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":6.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.9,"upper":74.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,31.5,119.5,53.0,65.0,91.5,126.0,56.0,43.5,420.0,575.0,476.0,431.0,691.0,1106.5,1290.0,1738.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Hwei","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1348,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1348,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1348,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":77,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1348,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":54.2,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":4.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,16.0,74.0,116.5,153.0,203.0,237.0,300.0,325.0,431.0,547.0,594.0,801.5,988.0,1162.0,1298.0,1406.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.4,"n_if_ahead_10":909,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1406,"desc":"Your spike: +1406g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":53,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":53,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":53,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":53,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.3,"upper":69.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-25.0,66.0,160.0,165.0,28.0,214.0,168.0,180.0,282.0,73.0,243.5,70.0,279.0,521.0,570.0,726.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":32,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":44,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (44% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":726,"desc":"Your spike: +726g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":296,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":296,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":296,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":296,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.4,"upper":61.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,6.5,85.0,138.5,137.0,207.5,274.5,294.5,269.0,486.0,591.0,570.0,809.5,1033.0,1294.5,1298.0,1693.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":186,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1693,"desc":"Your spike: +1693g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":773,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":773,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":773,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":773,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":18,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.2,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.2},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,14.0,115.0,96.0,85.0,50.0,-22.0,-27.0,-38.0,-138.0,-261.0,-228.0,-334.0,-399.0,-476.0,-427.0,-629.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":375,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-629,"desc":"Their spike: -629g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Shen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":72.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-56.0,-99.0,-112.0,-78.0,93.0,82.0,202.0,217.0,43.0,76.0,287.0,695.0,705.0,726.0,793.0,600.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Illaoi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":72.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[24.0,-43.0,-73.0,-102.0,-163.0,-42.0,-206.0,-232.0,-44.0,-75.0,-334.5,-400.0,-726.0,-722.0,-427.5,-647.0,897.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.2,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Brand","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":348,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":348,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":348,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":348,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":60.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,37.0,89.0,125.5,163.5,214.0,283.0,301.0,405.5,638.0,779.5,905.0,1258.5,1510.0,1845.0,1935.0,2172.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":245,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2172,"desc":"Your spike: +2172g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Teemo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":47,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":47,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":47,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":47,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":68.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,40.0,98.0,220.0,334.0,285.0,303.0,321.0,395.0,645.0,931.0,1041.0,1424.5,1220.0,1299.0,1549.0,1698.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":32,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1698,"desc":"Your spike: +1698g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":68,"desc":"Winners average 68 CS at 10:00 (losers: 63)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Varus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":98,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":98,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":98,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":98,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":64.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-62.0,-120.0,-95.5,-117.0,-126.0,-87.5,-132.0,-82.0,-69.0,172.5,26.0,213.0,145.0,207.0,26.0,149.0,357.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":357,"desc":"Your spike: +357g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Viego","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":51,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":51,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":51,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":51,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.4,"upper":67.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-21.0,-59.0,-37.0,-11.0,29.0,93.0,171.0,165.0,94.0,-29.0,179.0,476.0,470.0,558.0,258.0,-1510.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.2,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1510,"desc":"Their spike: -1510g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"KSante","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.9,"upper":68.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-31.0,22.0,28.5,-44.0,71.5,72.0,75.5,-108.0,-16.5,-67.0,-35.0,435.0,712.0,796.0,1344.0,1422.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1422,"desc":"Your spike: +1422g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":357,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":357,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":357,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":357,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.4,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,29.0,64.0,104.0,126.0,201.0,219.0,259.0,339.0,343.0,507.0,600.0,866.0,1240.0,1442.0,1801.0,1617.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":236,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1801,"desc":"Your spike: +1801g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":74,"desc":"Winners average 74 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2219,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2219,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2219,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":70,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2219,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":12,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.5,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.5},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-17.0,-2.0,26.0,55.0,117.0,171.0,230.0,273.0,311.0,394.0,548.0,636.0,771.0,978.0,1038.5,985.0,1258.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":1450,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1258,"desc":"Your spike: +1258g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1500,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1500,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1500,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1500,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":11,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.7,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.7},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.5,-30.0,-6.0,-18.5,14.5,28.5,41.5,65.5,52.0,73.0,193.5,245.0,359.0,349.0,384.5,365.0,568.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":788,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":568,"desc":"Your spike: +568g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1231,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1231,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1231,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":67,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1231,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":11,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.5,"upper":57.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.5},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-60.0,-68.0,-68.0,-62.0,-53.0,-68.0,-54.0,-50.0,-17.0,66.5,104.5,241.0,400.5,638.0,786.5,1051.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.7,"n_if_ahead_10":579,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1051,"desc":"Your spike: +1051g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":144,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":144,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":144,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":144,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":62.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-54.5,-57.5,-8.5,-8.0,-58.5,-135.5,-141.5,-200.5,-259.5,-448.0,-631.0,-655.0,-777.0,-1200.0,-1481.5,-1492.5,-1764.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":63,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":86,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (86% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1764,"desc":"Their spike: -1764g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":730,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":730,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":730,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":730,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.3,"upper":57.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,44.5,131.0,222.5,311.0,403.5,520.0,632.5,724.5,910.0,1055.5,1188.0,1449.5,1662.0,1607.0,1481.0,1309.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":623,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":1662,"desc":"Your spike: +1662g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Singed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":65,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":65,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":65,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":65,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":65.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,68.0,265.0,290.0,423.0,384.0,496.0,566.0,668.0,1018.0,1036.5,1208.0,1104.0,1310.0,1174.5,1630.0,1849.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":51,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1849,"desc":"Your spike: +1849g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":303,"value":297,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:03 (fast: 4:57)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,48.0,65.0,49.0,29.0,-19.0,-22.0,220.0,157.0,139.0,528.0,511.0,680.0,969.0,1363.0,620.0,-652.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":294,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":294,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":294,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":294,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-12.0,16.0,35.0,72.0,120.0,67.5,75.5,104.0,223.0,326.0,331.5,597.0,787.0,800.0,996.0,505.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.6,"n_if_ahead_10":161,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":996,"desc":"Your spike: +996g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Rumble","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":54,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":54,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":54,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":54,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":66.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,11.0,68.0,120.0,168.5,293.0,343.0,208.5,222.0,529.0,828.0,934.5,654.0,675.5,801.0,1356.0,676.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":77.4,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1356,"desc":"Your spike: +1356g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 69)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.7,"upper":67.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,-21.0,-30.0,39.0,98.0,24.0,112.0,389.0,512.0,555.0,498.0,663.0,259.5,-8.5,-143.0,180.0,-609.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":84,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (84% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":663,"desc":"Your spike: +663g at 15:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 67)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":234,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":234,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":234,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":234,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,30.5,101.5,124.5,141.0,143.0,185.0,240.5,215.5,285.5,369.0,362.0,652.0,1004.0,1290.5,1484.0,1590.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":151,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1590,"desc":"Your spike: +1590g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":767,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":767,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":767,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":767,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-30.0,15.0,11.0,54.0,92.0,94.0,92.0,84.0,153.5,325.0,390.0,580.5,793.0,843.0,992.0,1067.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":421,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1067,"desc":"Your spike: +1067g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":201,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":201,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":201,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":201,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":60.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,98.0,195.0,261.0,316.0,329.0,343.0,430.0,486.0,502.0,584.0,661.0,735.0,782.0,417.0,210.0,-70.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.8,"n_if_ahead_10":156,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":782,"desc":"Your spike: +782g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ornn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":24,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":69.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.5,72.0,45.5,81.0,90.0,89.0,95.0,102.0,333.0,222.0,304.0,353.0,812.0,1061.0,1141.0,1374.0,2986.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":132,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":132,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":132,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":132,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.6,"upper":61.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-76.0,-93.5,-168.0,-153.0,-178.5,-220.0,-278.5,-193.5,-151.0,-110.0,-254.5,-270.0,-81.5,211.0,51.0,366.0,473.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":71.4,"n_if_ahead_10":56,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":473,"desc":"Your spike: +473g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":263,"desc":"Survive to 4:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Chogath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":221,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":221,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":221,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":221,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.4,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,34.0,85.0,152.0,158.0,188.0,223.0,344.0,330.0,403.0,493.0,513.0,518.0,745.0,683.5,471.0,429.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.2,"n_if_ahead_10":137,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":745,"desc":"Your spike: +745g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2247,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2247,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2247,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2247,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,62.0,146.0,185.0,249.0,293.0,333.0,377.0,426.0,502.0,647.5,676.5,756.0,850.0,900.0,973.5,1119.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":1591,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1119,"desc":"Your spike: +1119g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":53,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":53,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":53,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":53,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":65.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-55.0,-48.0,-84.0,-63.0,-43.0,57.0,59.0,13.0,207.0,238.0,246.0,242.0,734.0,602.0,66.5,519.0,1368.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1368,"desc":"Your spike: +1368g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 65)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":284,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":284,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":284,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":284,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":58.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,14.0,46.0,52.0,83.0,131.0,105.0,157.0,198.0,222.0,295.0,292.0,478.0,499.5,658.0,754.0,570.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.0,"n_if_ahead_10":171,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":754,"desc":"Your spike: +754g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Jhin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":55,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":55,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":55,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":55,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":65.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-63.0,-51.0,-142.0,-186.0,-101.0,-146.0,-262.0,-109.0,-184.0,104.0,16.0,243.0,-84.0,430.0,533.0,700.0,929.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":929,"desc":"Your spike: +929g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":69,"desc":"Winners average 69 CS at 10:00 (losers: 55)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Talon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":663,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":663,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":663,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":663,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":56.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-40.0,-22.0,28.0,-15.0,0.0,17.0,22.0,56.0,96.5,98.0,90.0,134.0,222.0,252.5,355.0,671.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":343,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":671,"desc":"Your spike: +671g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":383,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":383,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":383,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":383,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,21.0,56.0,71.0,115.0,192.0,294.0,377.0,366.0,469.0,606.0,701.0,915.5,1119.0,1236.5,1514.5,1435.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.3,"n_if_ahead_10":261,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1514,"desc":"Your spike: +1514g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2707,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2707,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2707,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2707,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.6,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,119.0,202.0,238.0,261.0,293.0,308.0,347.0,382.0,445.0,534.0,569.5,632.5,699.0,598.5,602.0,528.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":1762,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":699,"desc":"Your spike: +699g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1447,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1447,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1447,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1447,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.8,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-19.0,0.0,33.0,63.0,92.0,110.0,119.0,154.0,154.0,219.0,318.5,401.5,556.0,722.5,887.0,1087.0,1190.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":839,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1190,"desc":"Your spike: +1190g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:10)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2193,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2193,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2193,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2193,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":54.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-30.0,-41.0,-24.0,10.0,27.0,89.0,129.0,156.0,207.0,220.5,397.5,469.5,593.0,750.5,817.5,867.0,835.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.4,"n_if_ahead_10":1319,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":867,"desc":"Your spike: +867g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3067,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3067,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3067,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3067,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.2,"upper":53.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,46.0,94.0,112.0,105.0,100.0,91.0,89.0,71.0,21.0,8.0,-6.0,33.0,15.0,31.0,46.0,-24.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.1,"n_if_ahead_10":1627,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":197,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":197,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":197,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":197,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":58.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,68.0,168.0,255.0,336.0,386.0,388.0,489.0,528.0,747.0,994.0,1065.5,1266.0,1330.0,1444.0,1664.5,1509.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":146,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1664,"desc":"Your spike: +1664g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Zac","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":58,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":58,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":58,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":24,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":58,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.2,"upper":64.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-7.0,-54.5,-14.5,65.0,104.0,80.0,101.5,266.0,439.5,677.0,853.0,1076.5,1108.0,882.0,841.0,1456.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1456,"desc":"Your spike: +1456g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Graves","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":18,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":68.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,12.0,23.0,140.0,237.0,70.0,263.0,257.0,172.0,44.0,306.0,188.0,158.0,605.0,427.5,-529.0,-163.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":44.4,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1020,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1020,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1020,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1020,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":54.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-6.0,38.5,84.0,108.5,134.0,179.5,246.5,274.0,339.0,522.0,496.0,724.0,877.5,929.0,1051.5,847.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.5,"n_if_ahead_10":638,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1051,"desc":"Your spike: +1051g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1681,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1681,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1681,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1681,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.1,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,40.0,100.0,146.0,210.0,259.0,265.0,322.0,359.0,439.0,536.5,631.0,862.0,1021.0,1178.0,1303.5,1387.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":1131,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1387,"desc":"Your spike: +1387g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Kled","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":19,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":67.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,14.0,-105.0,-113.0,-117.0,-104.0,-183.0,-130.0,-149.0,134.0,-102.0,-420.0,-645.5,-222.0,-352.0,-175.0,227.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":81.2,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1366,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1366,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1366,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1366,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.5,-80.0,-91.0,-98.0,-106.5,-103.0,-112.5,-141.0,-110.0,-85.0,-17.0,3.0,57.0,195.0,257.0,339.0,610.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":607,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":610,"desc":"Your spike: +610g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ahri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3024,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3024,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3024,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3024,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.6,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,14.5,63.5,104.0,133.0,170.5,198.0,230.5,268.5,315.5,459.0,503.5,692.0,819.5,1021.5,1102.0,1092.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.2,"n_if_ahead_10":1858,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1102,"desc":"Your spike: +1102g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":889,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":889,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":889,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":889,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":54.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-41.0,-10.0,-4.0,-12.0,-17.0,-72.0,-62.0,-54.0,-73.0,-65.5,-85.5,-75.0,-54.0,-5.5,-159.0,-16.5,186.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":413,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":80,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":80,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":80,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":80,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":61.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.0,193.5,317.0,352.5,365.5,420.5,445.5,462.5,450.0,450.5,606.5,533.5,488.0,718.0,895.5,1206.0,783.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.2,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1206,"desc":"Your spike: +1206g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2706,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2706,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2706,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2706,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-28.0,18.0,26.0,42.5,36.5,36.0,56.5,69.0,109.0,134.0,169.0,230.0,217.0,280.0,426.0,304.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":1422,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":426,"desc":"Your spike: +426g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":492,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":492,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":492,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":492,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":55.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,6.5,21.0,55.0,90.0,113.5,147.0,206.0,249.0,273.0,292.0,305.0,412.0,441.0,441.0,429.5,357.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.1,"n_if_ahead_10":298,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":441,"desc":"Your spike: +441g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1907,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1907,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1907,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1907,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,55.0,148.0,202.0,276.0,338.0,407.0,468.0,501.0,660.0,789.0,870.0,982.5,1046.0,1149.0,1136.0,1019.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.6,"n_if_ahead_10":1456,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1149,"desc":"Your spike: +1149g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":69,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":69,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":69,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":69,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.2,"upper":62.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-40.0,-24.0,-22.0,1.0,-67.0,-48.0,-29.0,-47.0,71.0,44.0,-214.5,-124.5,3.5,155.0,125.5,463.0,21.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":463,"desc":"Your spike: +463g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":321,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:21)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":729,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":729,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":729,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":729,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":54.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,28.0,51.0,-28.0,-6.0,-29.0,-102.0,-137.0,-138.0,-104.5,-68.5,-15.0,-49.5,36.0,14.0,-101.0,121.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":338,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1638,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1638,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1638,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1638,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.2,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,28.0,122.5,152.5,185.0,238.0,252.0,303.0,351.5,382.5,432.0,469.0,612.0,654.0,689.0,677.5,514.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.4,"n_if_ahead_10":1039,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":689,"desc":"Your spike: +689g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Quinn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":95,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":95,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":95,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":95,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":60.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-46.0,-35.0,-21.0,0.0,4.0,80.0,111.0,118.0,152.0,281.0,344.5,352.5,403.0,455.0,325.0,773.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":57,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":773,"desc":"Your spike: +773g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":961,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":961,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":961,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":961,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-14.0,-20.0,1.0,13.0,4.0,25.0,60.0,66.0,144.5,270.0,309.5,432.0,455.0,358.0,275.5,98.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":507,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":455,"desc":"Your spike: +455g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Karthus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":21,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":65.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-1.0,44.0,84.0,90.0,57.0,60.0,56.0,121.5,114.5,269.5,434.5,219.0,346.0,353.0,488.5,3.0,-553.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":295,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":295,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":295,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":295,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,0.0,41.0,72.0,119.0,72.0,20.0,8.0,-46.0,-112.0,-140.0,-225.0,-446.5,-542.0,-836.0,-832.0,-1069.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":143,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1069,"desc":"Their spike: -1069g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":91,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":91,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":91,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":91,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":59.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-50.0,-48.0,-131.0,-129.0,-166.0,-124.0,-130.0,-217.0,-299.0,-302.0,-213.0,-150.0,150.0,303.0,306.0,260.0,738.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"you_scale","desc":"You outscale - survive laning, win late"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":738,"desc":"Your spike: +738g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":330,"desc":"Survive to 5:00 - you outscale"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":937,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":937,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":937,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":937,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.2,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-48.0,-77.0,-104.0,-93.0,-78.0,-91.0,-90.0,-73.0,-9.0,46.0,91.0,128.0,296.0,296.0,519.0,595.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.7,"n_if_ahead_10":439,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":595,"desc":"Your spike: +595g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:17)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":662,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":662,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":662,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":662,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-56.0,-70.0,-35.0,-49.0,-54.0,-31.5,-22.0,-82.5,-41.5,12.0,-52.0,-5.0,-131.0,-127.0,-150.5,-324.5,-335.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.0,"n_if_ahead_10":317,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-335,"desc":"Their spike: -335g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1084,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1084,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1084,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1084,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.4,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,34.0,97.0,140.5,160.5,184.5,197.0,206.5,241.0,281.0,347.0,360.0,413.0,454.5,493.0,432.5,516.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.3,"n_if_ahead_10":638,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":516,"desc":"Your spike: +516g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1983,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1983,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1983,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1983,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.1,"upper":51.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-32.0,-21.0,-22.0,-33.0,-46.0,-54.0,-65.0,-83.0,-77.0,-101.0,-108.0,-112.0,-218.0,-113.5,-47.0,-111.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":923,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":889,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":889,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":889,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":889,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-16.0,-26.0,-41.0,28.0,59.0,77.0,70.0,88.0,131.0,177.0,217.0,281.0,377.5,592.0,649.0,787.0,696.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.6,"n_if_ahead_10":495,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":787,"desc":"Your spike: +787g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Twitch","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":65,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":65,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":65,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":65,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.5,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,3.0,93.0,180.0,235.0,303.0,304.0,284.0,255.0,292.0,616.0,536.0,741.0,479.5,541.0,511.5,-165.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":741,"desc":"Your spike: +741g at 18:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":67,"desc":"Winners average 67 CS at 10:00 (losers: 60)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1884,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1884,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1884,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1884,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-4.0,27.0,50.5,56.5,57.5,64.5,60.5,48.0,62.5,35.0,66.0,146.0,238.5,303.0,478.5,601.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":987,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":601,"desc":"Your spike: +601g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":108,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":108,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":108,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":108,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-56.0,-82.5,-118.5,-99.0,-220.5,-198.0,-293.0,-267.0,-251.0,-212.0,-198.5,-323.0,-253.5,-41.0,-197.0,-542.0,-2008.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.0,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2008,"desc":"Their spike: -2008g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":638,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":638,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":638,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":638,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.2,"upper":52.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,10.0,79.0,125.0,165.5,240.5,292.5,331.5,433.5,575.0,764.0,917.0,1134.0,1312.0,1496.0,1547.0,1746.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.9,"n_if_ahead_10":424,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1746,"desc":"Your spike: +1746g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":433,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":433,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":433,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":433,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-10.0,-7.0,26.0,-39.0,-30.0,-17.0,-43.0,-80.0,-96.5,-70.0,20.0,-76.5,-131.0,-33.0,-140.0,112.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":202,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Lucian","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":70,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":70,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":70,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":70,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.2,"upper":60.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-53.0,-110.5,-153.5,-140.0,-212.0,-159.0,-191.5,-145.0,-68.0,-110.5,126.0,-8.0,386.0,-203.0,145.0,333.0,-621.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":32,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-621,"desc":"Their spike: -621g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":345,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:45 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2010,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2010,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2010,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2010,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":10,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":50.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,28.0,57.5,97.5,107.0,156.0,168.5,189.5,220.0,281.5,402.0,481.0,709.0,965.0,1119.0,1346.0,1510.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.4,"n_if_ahead_10":1232,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1510,"desc":"Your spike: +1510g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1475,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1475,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1475,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1475,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":11,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":50.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-48.0,-98.0,-119.0,-189.0,-199.0,-229.0,-253.0,-260.0,-266.5,-283.0,-310.0,-318.0,-301.0,-324.0,-185.0,-153.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.4,"n_if_ahead_10":583,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":82,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (82% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-324,"desc":"Their spike: -324g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":365,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":365,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":365,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":365,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.9,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,16.0,22.0,29.0,42.0,-14.0,-18.0,-36.0,-24.0,-109.0,-227.0,-300.0,-252.5,-232.5,-194.0,-324.0,-110.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":177,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-324,"desc":"Their spike: -324g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Zilean","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":94,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":94,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":94,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":94,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,101.0,238.5,300.5,375.0,460.5,555.0,641.0,739.0,739.0,1008.5,1096.0,1235.0,1453.5,1778.0,1832.5,2191.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":44.4,"n_if_ahead_10":81,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":50,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (50% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2191,"desc":"Your spike: +2191g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":69,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":69,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":69,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":69,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.5,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,30.0,100.0,162.0,200.0,302.0,347.0,443.0,584.0,578.0,930.0,1173.0,1360.0,1789.5,2272.0,2253.0,2454.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.4,"n_if_ahead_10":57,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2454,"desc":"Your spike: +2454g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":181,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":181,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":181,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":181,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.4,"upper":54.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.0,56.0,161.0,244.0,326.0,361.0,390.0,463.0,498.0,589.5,802.5,901.0,995.0,1050.0,1134.0,963.5,552.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.4,"n_if_ahead_10":139,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1134,"desc":"Your spike: +1134g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Corki","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":76,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":76,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":76,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":76,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.5,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.0,-53.5,10.0,37.5,35.5,28.5,19.0,-42.5,31.0,-5.5,-113.5,-203.0,-401.0,-602.0,-362.0,-418.5,-31.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.5,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-602,"desc":"Their spike: -602g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1316,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1316,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1316,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1316,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":50.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-27.5,-1.0,100.0,158.0,191.0,217.0,249.0,272.5,283.0,288.5,313.0,286.0,279.0,315.0,296.0,282.0,171.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":808,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":315,"desc":"Your spike: +315g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Sett","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":72,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":72,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":72,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":72,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.1,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-56.0,-116.0,-211.5,-165.5,-338.5,-256.5,-264.5,-338.0,-485.0,-430.0,-593.0,-620.5,-531.5,-641.0,-902.0,-858.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.2,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":82,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (82% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-902,"desc":"Their spike: -902g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:18)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":428,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":428,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":428,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":428,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-70.0,-111.5,-88.0,-173.5,-151.0,-150.5,-152.0,-179.5,-184.5,-165.0,-188.0,-158.0,-24.5,10.0,102.0,515.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":180,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":515,"desc":"Your spike: +515g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":344,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:44 (fast: 5:16)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2578,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2578,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2578,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":74,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2578,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":16,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.1,"upper":49.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":1.0},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,28.0,65.0,61.0,58.0,75.0,78.5,101.5,116.5,117.5,177.5,174.5,307.5,479.0,655.0,818.0,912.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.0,"n_if_ahead_10":1395,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":912,"desc":"Your spike: +912g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:14)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Camille","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.9,"upper":63.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-38.0,-35.0,8.0,17.0,-14.5,-37.5,-21.5,143.0,116.0,70.0,-213.5,-415.0,-408.0,-339.0,-276.0,-876.5,-688.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":923,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":923,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":923,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":75,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":923,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.7,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[26.0,92.0,209.0,274.0,345.0,370.0,423.0,439.0,457.0,456.0,521.5,612.5,712.0,601.0,388.5,205.0,-383.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.3,"n_if_ahead_10":634,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":712,"desc":"Your spike: +712g at 18:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Neeko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":129,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":129,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":129,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":129,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.4,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,19.0,42.0,49.0,57.0,23.0,22.0,103.0,211.0,139.0,219.0,179.0,419.0,559.0,888.5,1089.0,1392.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.6,"n_if_ahead_10":77,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1392,"desc":"Your spike: +1392g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Gragas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":159,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":159,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":159,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":159,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.7,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,14.0,49.0,35.0,14.0,9.0,-56.0,-68.0,-4.0,-96.0,-22.0,-120.0,-25.5,88.0,-81.0,-1.0,-23.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.0,"n_if_ahead_10":79,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":66,"desc":"Winners average 66 CS at 10:00 (losers: 61)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":312,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:12)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Renekton","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":110,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":110,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":110,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":110,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":6.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.6,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-38.0,-62.5,-79.5,-69.5,-142.0,-225.0,-279.5,-322.5,-452.0,-444.0,-422.5,-318.0,-271.0,165.0,223.5,0.0,-320.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":43,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":600,"value":-452,"desc":"Their spike: -452g at 10:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:13)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":218,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":218,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":218,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":218,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":6.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":51.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.5,-56.0,-46.0,-48.0,-46.5,-37.0,-109.0,-100.0,-49.5,-134.5,-158.0,-226.5,-209.0,-177.0,-388.0,-491.0,-735.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.3,"n_if_ahead_10":103,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-735,"desc":"Their spike: -735g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Pyke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":26.7,"upper":62.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,56.0,-9.0,-31.0,237.0,51.0,278.0,458.0,462.0,347.0,778.0,772.0,907.0,1133.0,988.0,1457.0,428.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.3,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":181,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":181,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":181,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":181,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":7.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.6,"upper":50.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-54.0,-14.0,-84.0,-103.0,-108.0,-185.0,-281.0,-209.0,-164.5,-282.0,-246.0,-125.5,-117.0,-177.0,-120.0,202.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":80,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":220,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":220,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":220,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":220,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":8.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.8,"upper":49.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,41.0,107.0,146.0,119.0,114.0,105.0,35.5,-75.5,-177.5,-220.0,-238.0,-203.0,-270.0,-509.0,-357.5,-421.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.9,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-509,"desc":"Their spike: -509g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":166,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":166,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":166,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":166,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":10.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.8,"upper":48.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[27.0,96.5,211.0,274.5,353.5,231.5,192.0,312.0,158.0,197.5,264.0,431.0,228.0,319.0,316.0,416.0,433.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":49.5,"n_if_ahead_10":101,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":433,"desc":"Your spike: +433g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Karma","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":91,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":91,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":91,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":91,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":11.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":39.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":39.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.1,"upper":49.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,2.0,-9.0,-10.0,-21.0,-32.0,36.0,42.0,190.0,364.0,470.0,548.0,1012.0,1775.5,2114.0,2268.5,2544.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.4,"n_if_ahead_10":53,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":50,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (50% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2544,"desc":"Your spike: +2544g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":318,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:18)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":121,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":121,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":121,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":121,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":12.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.6,"upper":47.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-48.0,-82.0,-137.0,-221.0,-233.0,-286.0,-331.0,-354.0,-331.0,-449.0,-840.0,-1004.0,-1117.5,-1371.0,-1210.0,-1890.0,-2398.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.5,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2398,"desc":"Their spike: -2398g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":343,"value":323,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:43 (fast: 5:23)"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Kennen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":82,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":82,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":82,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":82,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":13.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.1,"upper":48.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":42.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-24.5,15.0,51.0,60.5,16.5,-7.0,41.5,53.0,-8.0,-119.0,79.5,91.0,537.0,710.0,741.0,1320.0,1203.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":43.9,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1320,"desc":"Your spike: +1320g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":117,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":117,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":117,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":117,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":15.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.8,"upper":44.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"unfavored","margin_pp":5.1},"shrunk":{"estimate":40.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-35.0,-1.0,19.0,-17.0,-38.0,-22.0,6.0,-19.0,55.0,34.5,3.5,40.5,135.0,-18.5,307.5,130.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.8,"n_if_ahead_10":56,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":307,"desc":"Your spike: +307g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":68,"desc":"Winners average 68 CS at 10:00 (losers: 62)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"Vi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":16.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":34.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":34.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":19.4,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-49.5,-75.5,-69.5,-128.0,-107.0,-50.0,-42.0,-145.5,-198.5,-107.0,-234.0,-345.0,-276.0,-195.5,-278.5,-394.0,70.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Fizz","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":51.3,"edge_pp":26.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":25.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":25.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":12.7,"upper":43.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":41.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":16.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,43.0,26.0,-156.5,-142.0,-306.5,-89.5,-276.5,-357.5,-236.5,-398.0,-213.0,64.0,-265.5,34.0,-392.0,-1338.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":33.3,"n_if_ahead_10":9,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}