{"matchups":[{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":19.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":69.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":69.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":53.1,"upper":82.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":11.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-25.0,-45.0,-91.0,-94.5,-86.0,-156.5,-212.5,-95.5,-78.5,-134.0,-108.5,-76.0,26.0,332.0,719.5,1450.0,1390.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.3,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":16.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":66.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":66.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":81.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,15.0,28.0,28.0,-51.0,13.0,173.0,180.0,67.0,107.5,63.5,264.5,133.0,177.0,1075.0,222.0,430.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":87.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":12.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":62.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":62.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.3,"upper":76.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,56.0,118.0,203.0,133.0,102.0,81.0,55.0,163.0,196.0,226.0,192.0,-123.0,392.5,221.0,181.5,-231.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":81.0,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":112,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":112,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":112,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":7.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.8,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.5,-28.0,-136.0,-159.5,-239.5,-356.0,-277.5,-369.0,-432.0,-436.5,-477.0,-588.0,-511.0,-453.5,-538.0,-336.0,-335.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":81.2,"n_if_ahead_10":32,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":84,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (84% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-588,"desc":"Their spike: -588g at 15:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":314,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:14)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":70.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[26.5,46.0,165.5,164.0,206.0,146.5,271.0,250.0,297.0,344.5,376.0,435.0,347.5,320.0,847.0,1058.0,1200.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":76.5,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1200,"desc":"Your spike: +1200g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":77,"desc":"Winners average 77 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":420,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":420,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":420,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":420,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":6.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.9,"upper":61.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-32.0,-44.5,-51.5,-38.0,-40.5,-34.0,-24.5,-74.0,-70.0,-6.0,-74.5,-123.0,-145.0,-191.0,-76.0,-114.5,-61.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":199,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 67)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.1,"upper":73.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-45.0,-109.0,-206.0,-241.0,-332.0,-464.0,-563.0,-509.0,-390.0,-370.0,-529.0,-821.0,-1329.0,-1387.0,-1262.0,142.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":87.5,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":64.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-16.0,14.0,21.0,48.0,-24.0,17.5,36.5,105.5,53.5,163.0,274.5,450.0,627.0,656.0,1077.0,1021.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.8,"n_if_ahead_10":65,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1077,"desc":"Your spike: +1077g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Talon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":99,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":99,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":99,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":99,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":65.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-56.0,-75.0,-73.0,-70.0,-132.0,-113.0,-163.0,-196.0,-263.0,-87.0,-64.0,139.0,83.5,-238.5,-262.5,149.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":44,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":69.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-17.0,33.5,11.0,78.0,-51.0,-79.0,-41.0,-3.0,50.0,191.0,-69.0,122.0,33.0,131.5,128.0,785.0,-1057.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.9,"n_if_ahead_10":23,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1057,"desc":"Their spike: -1057g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":80,"desc":"Winners average 80 CS at 10:00 (losers: 74)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":173,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":173,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":173,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":173,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":62.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-6.0,44.0,62.0,82.0,86.0,93.0,114.0,73.0,71.0,-4.5,40.0,105.0,340.5,563.5,650.5,863.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":93,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":863,"desc":"Your spike: +863g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":155,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":155,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":155,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":155,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":62.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-56.0,-82.0,-109.0,-122.0,-171.0,-135.0,-111.0,-110.0,-137.0,-189.0,-102.0,-144.0,-202.5,-104.0,21.5,266.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":35,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (35% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":434,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":434,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":434,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":434,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[39.5,50.5,45.5,-17.0,-70.5,-65.0,-93.5,-90.5,-84.0,-177.0,-224.0,-227.0,-289.0,-132.5,-104.0,-24.0,-386.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.8,"n_if_ahead_10":199,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-386,"desc":"Their spike: -386g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":109,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":109,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":109,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":109,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":63.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[27.0,63.0,113.0,187.0,260.0,299.0,352.0,335.0,346.0,305.0,328.0,368.0,237.0,223.0,246.0,-85.5,-176.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":74,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":36,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (36% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":368,"desc":"Your spike: +368g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":263,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":263,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":263,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":263,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":59.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-21.0,-40.0,-19.0,-18.0,-34.0,-68.0,-82.0,-97.0,-147.0,-230.0,-220.0,-261.0,-144.0,-267.0,-359.0,-714.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":118,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-714,"desc":"Their spike: -714g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.1,"upper":69.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.5,36.0,24.5,30.5,100.5,179.0,145.5,44.0,45.0,-190.0,-530.0,-362.0,-710.0,-1064.0,-961.5,-1445.5,-2110.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":186,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":186,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":186,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":186,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":60.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,5.5,5.0,1.0,-13.0,-59.5,-114.0,-47.5,-54.5,-138.0,-103.5,-79.0,-152.0,-142.0,-47.0,22.0,2.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":84,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":474,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":474,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":474,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":474,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":57.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,14.0,-12.5,-14.0,-38.0,-96.0,-178.0,-211.0,-251.0,-359.0,-434.0,-524.0,-665.0,-745.0,-725.0,-1033.5,-756.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.2,"n_if_ahead_10":180,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1033,"desc":"Their spike: -1033g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":112,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":112,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":112,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":112,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.5,"upper":61.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,21.0,25.0,39.5,48.5,71.5,111.5,101.0,121.5,90.5,-32.0,-1.0,229.0,305.0,63.0,149.0,83.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":305,"desc":"Your spike: +305g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":131,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":131,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":131,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":131,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":61.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-21.0,-40.0,-112.0,-88.0,-129.0,-263.0,-183.0,-365.0,-327.0,-461.0,-494.0,-529.0,-399.0,-266.0,100.0,341.0,746.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.5,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":746,"desc":"Your spike: +746g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":188,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":188,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":188,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":188,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":59.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-28.0,-42.0,-28.0,-35.5,-38.0,-49.0,-34.5,-47.5,-38.0,-6.0,-71.0,-75.0,-74.0,190.5,194.0,-86.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.5,"n_if_ahead_10":89,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":316,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":316,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":316,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":316,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":58.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-26.0,-26.0,-53.0,-59.0,-51.5,-75.5,-54.5,-82.5,-70.0,-50.0,-91.0,-76.0,28.0,-299.0,-265.0,-344.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.8,"n_if_ahead_10":146,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-344,"desc":"Their spike: -344g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":237,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":237,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":237,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":237,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.0,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.0,-7.0,-14.0,-15.0,-35.0,-17.0,-5.0,0.0,-28.0,-63.5,37.0,-2.0,250.0,409.0,684.5,822.5,813.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":115,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":822,"desc":"Your spike: +822g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":199,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":199,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":199,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":199,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,28.0,43.0,58.0,53.0,48.0,8.0,26.0,9.0,-79.0,-202.0,-148.0,32.0,-38.5,20.0,89.5,41.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":100,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":211,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":211,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":211,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":211,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":58.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-13.0,-62.0,-121.0,-216.0,-232.0,-292.0,-351.0,-379.0,-453.0,-450.0,-541.5,-567.0,-628.0,-680.0,-543.0,-384.5,-173.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.6,"n_if_ahead_10":61,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-680,"desc":"Their spike: -680g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":342,"value":317,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:42 (fast: 5:17)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.6,"upper":63.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-18.0,-42.0,-32.0,-14.0,-55.5,-57.0,-58.5,-124.5,-192.0,-241.5,-472.0,-546.0,-620.0,-629.0,-720.0,-951.0,-201.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-951,"desc":"Their spike: -951g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":45,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":45,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":45,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":21,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":45,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.0,"upper":65.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,51.0,112.0,187.0,179.0,281.0,123.0,117.0,216.0,163.0,85.0,13.0,26.0,-17.0,-407.5,-1051.0,-480.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.3,"n_if_ahead_10":27,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":360,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-6:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1051,"desc":"Their spike: -1051g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1730,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":80,"desc":"Winners average 80 CS at 10:00 (losers: 74)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":420,"desc":"Best trade window at 7:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":209,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":209,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":209,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":209,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.0,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.0,-30.0,-81.0,-91.0,-189.0,-242.0,-189.0,-302.0,-341.0,-305.0,-395.0,-406.0,-522.0,-406.0,-328.5,-458.0,-743.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-743,"desc":"Their spike: -743g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":219,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":219,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":219,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":219,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":57.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-23.0,-51.0,-89.0,-118.0,-131.0,-135.0,-194.0,-152.0,-229.0,-307.0,-379.0,-482.5,-483.0,-635.0,-747.0,-822.0,-876.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":84,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-876,"desc":"Their spike: -876g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":378,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":378,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":378,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":378,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,0.0,-24.5,-60.5,-87.0,-124.0,-71.0,-74.0,-30.0,-20.0,-5.5,-1.0,23.0,107.0,168.0,493.0,569.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.9,"n_if_ahead_10":185,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":569,"desc":"Your spike: +569g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":339,"value":315,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:39 (fast: 5:15)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":97,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":97,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":97,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":97,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.7,"upper":60.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-7.0,-14.0,-28.0,-36.0,16.0,4.0,6.0,-93.0,123.0,102.0,40.0,12.0,461.5,187.0,230.0,307.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.2,"n_if_ahead_10":46,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":461,"desc":"Your spike: +461g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":331,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:31 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":96,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":96,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":96,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":96,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.2,"upper":59.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-20.5,-16.5,-8.5,4.0,70.0,50.5,83.5,-15.5,-128.0,-103.0,-194.0,-199.0,-159.5,-260.0,-51.5,-75.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.7,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":46,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (46% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":82,"desc":"Winners average 82 CS at 10:00 (losers: 76)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":181,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":181,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":181,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":181,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.5,"upper":56.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-12.0,-4.0,7.0,25.0,2.0,-55.0,40.0,15.0,-18.0,54.0,19.0,81.0,81.0,64.0,94.0,213.0,429.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.4,"n_if_ahead_10":89,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":429,"desc":"Your spike: +429g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":333,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":333,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":333,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":333,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":0.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,32.0,73.0,99.0,113.0,127.0,134.0,118.0,69.0,109.0,95.0,62.0,204.0,175.5,185.0,144.0,-85.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.1,"n_if_ahead_10":185,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":151,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":151,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":151,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":151,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":56.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-22.0,-45.0,-46.0,-64.0,-100.0,-110.0,-85.0,-118.0,-191.0,-189.0,-248.0,-64.5,178.0,20.0,66.0,311.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.9,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":311,"desc":"Your spike: +311g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:11)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":179,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":179,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":179,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":179,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.4,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-1.0,7.0,12.0,21.0,57.0,85.0,83.0,133.0,82.0,88.0,90.5,77.0,279.0,248.5,372.0,458.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":97,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":458,"desc":"Your spike: +458g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":336,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:36 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":33,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":33,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":33,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":24,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":33,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.5,"upper":64.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-28.0,-3.0,48.0,63.0,78.0,92.0,47.0,-19.0,-206.0,-268.5,-154.5,-596.0,-566.0,-925.0,-595.5,-1013.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Hwei","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":234,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":234,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":234,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":234,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-14.0,-29.5,-38.0,-70.5,-92.5,-113.5,-137.0,-121.5,-163.0,-243.0,-351.0,-316.0,-202.0,-221.0,-203.0,183.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.2,"n_if_ahead_10":96,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":33,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (33% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-351,"desc":"Their spike: -351g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":58,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":58,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":58,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":31,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":58,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.9,"upper":60.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.5,12.0,25.5,79.0,88.5,211.0,185.0,103.0,162.5,348.5,367.0,436.5,266.0,-11.0,-176.0,-503.5,-974.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-974,"desc":"Their spike: -974g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Sett","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":36.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":30.0,"upper":66.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-3.0,-14.0,137.0,98.0,51.0,45.0,159.0,214.0,312.0,426.0,327.0,646.0,-143.0,-478.0,-614.0,-2457.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":186,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":186,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":186,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":186,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.8,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[3.5,23.5,68.0,100.5,137.5,123.5,159.0,204.0,234.5,335.0,287.5,282.0,250.0,418.0,427.0,253.5,-26.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":115,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":427,"desc":"Your spike: +427g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":81,"desc":"Winners average 81 CS at 10:00 (losers: 73)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":403,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":403,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":403,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":403,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.8,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-21.0,-26.0,-7.0,15.0,50.0,31.0,60.0,54.0,4.0,-48.5,-33.0,-24.0,32.0,-32.0,-65.5,195.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.0,"n_if_ahead_10":218,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.5,"upper":62.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-55.0,-26.5,10.0,-42.5,-32.5,39.0,33.5,99.0,71.5,159.0,99.5,25.0,-12.0,161.0,-245.0,14.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.5,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Brand","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":55,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":55,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":55,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":31,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":55,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.7,"upper":60.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-13.0,42.0,20.0,21.0,15.0,-7.0,-58.0,-93.0,-111.0,-98.0,-44.0,-113.5,-87.5,-339.0,-18.0,-361.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-361,"desc":"Their spike: -361g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-24.0,-66.0,-122.0,-141.0,-186.0,-164.0,-254.0,-239.0,-184.0,-290.0,-376.5,-491.5,-689.0,-888.0,-822.0,-806.0,-599.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-888,"desc":"Their spike: -888g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Fizz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":221,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":221,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":221,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":221,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.6,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[2.0,-34.0,-85.0,-152.0,-158.0,-188.0,-223.0,-344.0,-330.0,-403.0,-493.0,-513.0,-518.0,-745.0,-683.5,-471.0,-429.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.5,"n_if_ahead_10":84,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-745,"desc":"Their spike: -745g at 21:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":62,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":62,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":62,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":62,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.9,"upper":59.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.0,7.0,-1.0,14.5,-8.0,34.5,44.5,8.0,-22.5,-174.0,-127.0,-106.0,145.5,-91.0,389.5,373.0,498.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.3,"n_if_ahead_10":30,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":498,"desc":"Your spike: +498g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":136,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":136,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":136,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":136,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.2,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-61.0,-96.0,-172.0,-287.5,-325.0,-347.0,-482.0,-515.0,-633.5,-697.5,-834.0,-1118.0,-1474.0,-1557.0,-1651.0,-1099.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":73.8,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":81,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (81% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1651,"desc":"Their spike: -1651g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":72,"desc":"Winners average 72 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":338,"value":313,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:38 (fast: 5:13)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.6,"upper":61.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-49.0,-24.0,22.0,-22.0,-32.0,1.0,-51.0,-87.0,-176.0,-353.0,-350.0,-561.0,-959.0,-853.5,-1296.0,-1131.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.6,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":297,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":297,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":297,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":297,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":51.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-42.0,-87.0,-102.0,-141.0,-205.0,-187.0,-238.0,-251.0,-290.0,-338.0,-331.0,-425.0,-341.0,-396.0,-425.0,-614.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.8,"n_if_ahead_10":104,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-614,"desc":"Their spike: -614g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":100,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":100,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":100,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":100,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.6,"upper":55.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,21.0,31.0,68.5,119.5,178.5,220.5,231.5,242.5,257.5,276.5,217.0,543.5,449.0,692.0,352.0,24.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.4,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":692,"desc":"Your spike: +692g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":93,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":93,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":93,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":93,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.4,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,18.0,0.0,-65.0,-8.0,-50.0,-125.0,-195.0,-6.0,-110.0,-47.0,-118.0,-243.5,-121.0,-147.0,-446.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":38,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-446,"desc":"Their spike: -446g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":340,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:40 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":51,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":51,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":51,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":51,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.3,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-22.0,-186.0,-330.0,-313.0,-436.0,-585.0,-504.0,-474.0,-509.0,-785.0,-997.0,-918.0,-1235.0,-1473.0,-1170.5,-1135.0,-1101.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-1473,"desc":"Their spike: -1473g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":337,"value":316,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:37 (fast: 5:16)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":118,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":118,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":118,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":118,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.2,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-57.0,-117.0,-119.0,-156.0,-259.5,-217.5,-343.5,-350.0,-405.0,-430.0,-457.0,-719.0,-1095.0,-1186.5,-1126.0,-1691.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.0,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1691,"desc":"Their spike: -1691g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:09)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":205,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":205,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":205,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":205,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.2,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-37.0,-68.0,-114.0,-123.0,-167.0,-191.0,-195.0,-216.0,-282.0,-305.0,-290.0,-351.0,-433.0,-366.0,-577.0,-768.0,-1192.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.8,"n_if_ahead_10":72,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1192,"desc":"Their spike: -1192g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Ahri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":434,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":434,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":434,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":434,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":6.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.9,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-18.0,-21.0,-15.5,-18.0,-53.5,-37.5,-61.0,-40.5,-122.0,-137.0,-143.0,-190.0,30.0,0.0,45.0,41.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.1,"n_if_ahead_10":207,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":179,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":179,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":179,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":179,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":6.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.5,"upper":50.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-46.0,-103.0,-159.0,-206.0,-252.0,-265.0,-363.0,-327.0,-460.0,-638.0,-662.0,-666.0,-929.0,-667.0,-608.0,-938.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":66,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":80,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (80% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-938,"desc":"Their spike: -938g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":341,"value":311,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:41 (fast: 5:11)"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":9.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":41.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":41.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.8,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,47.0,70.0,102.0,81.0,102.0,86.0,86.0,69.0,147.0,102.0,89.0,303.0,738.0,866.0,944.0,1107.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":45.5,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1107,"desc":"Your spike: +1107g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":10.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":40.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":40.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":23.4,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-42.0,-85.0,-51.0,-160.0,-151.0,-227.0,-316.0,-321.0,-153.0,-338.0,-355.0,-408.0,-561.5,-614.0,-714.0,-872.5,-2.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":70.0,"n_if_ahead_10":10,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":68,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":68,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":68,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":68,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":12.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":27.6,"upper":50.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-46.0,-30.0,-5.5,-18.0,42.5,144.0,44.5,172.0,165.0,112.0,178.0,240.0,92.0,119.0,160.5,341.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":38,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":341,"desc":"Your spike: +341g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 66)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":12.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":37.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":37.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":22.7,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-18.0,-28.0,1.0,-4.0,-54.0,-193.0,-72.0,-78.0,-135.0,-438.0,-537.5,-548.0,-486.0,-415.5,46.0,277.0,678.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":12,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Chogath","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.4,"edge_pp":15.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":35.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":35.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":21.5,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,18.0,33.5,43.0,112.5,111.0,93.0,217.5,254.0,96.0,207.5,88.5,-191.5,-566.0,-638.0,-584.0,-1780.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.4,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}