{"matchups":[{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":35,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":35,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":35,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":35,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":23.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":74.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":74.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":57.9,"upper":85.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":60.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":14.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-27.0,-15.0,-99.0,-139.0,-177.0,-146.0,-167.0,-226.0,-250.0,-431.0,-476.0,-628.5,-618.5,-678.0,-1273.0,-981.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.7,"n_if_ahead_10":11,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Corki","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":25,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":25,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":25,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":25,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":17.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":68.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":68.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":82.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":12.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-18.0,-40.0,-62.0,34.0,-35.0,-45.0,-135.0,6.0,-77.0,-68.0,1.0,64.0,-269.0,-190.0,-43.0,-1069.0,-1259.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":90.9,"n_if_ahead_10":11,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":60,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":60,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":60,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":60,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":14.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":65.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":65.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.4,"upper":75.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-13.0,-14.0,11.5,20.0,44.5,158.0,154.5,182.5,218.0,46.5,189.5,58.0,244.0,272.5,45.0,-448.0,-1032.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":38,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (38% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1032,"desc":"Their spike: -1032g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":12.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":63.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":63.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":76.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":7.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,76.0,22.0,79.0,65.0,169.0,148.0,140.0,51.0,57.0,-141.0,-278.0,-399.0,-645.0,-954.0,-1403.0,-1116.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.6,"n_if_ahead_10":22,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1403,"desc":"Their spike: -1403g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":302,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:02 (fast: 5:00)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Kennen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":28,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":28,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":28,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":28,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":10.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.4,"upper":76.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,38.5,83.5,134.0,41.5,62.5,84.5,177.5,167.0,2.0,250.5,203.0,109.0,438.0,283.0,131.0,457.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":122,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":122,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":122,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":122,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":9.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.0,"upper":68.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,7.0,22.5,26.5,19.0,41.5,37.5,60.0,124.0,134.0,294.5,245.0,81.0,180.5,307.0,182.0,327.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":75,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":327,"desc":"Your spike: +327g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":73.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.5,11.5,-60.5,-44.5,-2.5,-37.5,32.0,12.5,-34.5,-21.5,-221.5,-95.0,-429.0,-924.5,-1221.0,-1632.0,-1790.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1790,"desc":"Their spike: -1790g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 5:00)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":109,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":109,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":109,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":109,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":65.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,19.0,-4.0,57.0,57.0,-5.0,52.0,92.0,60.0,-71.0,-291.0,-324.0,-401.0,-451.0,-656.5,-732.5,-126.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.5,"n_if_ahead_10":58,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-732,"desc":"Their spike: -732g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":48,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":48,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":48,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":48,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":69.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-49.0,-75.5,-22.5,17.0,68.0,63.0,109.5,180.0,44.0,-100.0,-222.0,-18.5,-524.0,-691.5,-869.0,-1057.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":30,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1057,"desc":"Their spike: -1057g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":334,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":334,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":334,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":334,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":56.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":56.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.6,"upper":61.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-37.0,-53.0,-58.5,-97.0,-138.0,-141.5,-228.5,-276.0,-439.0,-467.0,-576.0,-706.5,-859.5,-1084.0,-1225.5,-1163.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":117,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":39,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (39% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1225,"desc":"Their spike: -1225g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":227,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":227,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":227,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":227,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":61.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-36.0,-91.0,-148.0,-185.0,-223.0,-200.0,-283.0,-349.0,-410.0,-477.0,-571.0,-532.0,-524.0,-507.0,-439.0,-463.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.6,"n_if_ahead_10":74,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-571,"desc":"Their spike: -571g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":592,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":592,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":592,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":592,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":17,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.9,"upper":58.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,0.0,-22.5,-38.0,-18.0,7.5,-9.0,12.0,3.0,-20.5,-36.0,-76.0,-22.5,-76.0,-222.0,-230.5,-233.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.2,"n_if_ahead_10":299,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":79,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (79% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":318,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":318,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":318,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":318,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-5.5,-11.0,-17.0,-11.0,-11.0,29.5,-31.0,-43.5,-16.5,-104.5,-115.5,-336.5,-520.0,-455.0,-484.0,-406.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.8,"n_if_ahead_10":152,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-520,"desc":"Their spike: -520g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":53,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":53,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":53,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":53,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.5,"upper":67.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[23.0,59.0,94.0,120.0,159.0,359.0,364.0,337.0,372.0,253.0,396.0,483.0,30.0,-261.5,-1433.0,-1930.0,-2580.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2580,"desc":"Their spike: -2580g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1784,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":305,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:05 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":293,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":293,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":293,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":293,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":60.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,-6.0,-44.0,-81.0,-186.0,-209.0,-231.0,-313.0,-368.0,-414.0,-516.0,-532.5,-594.0,-667.5,-987.5,-1103.0,-931.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.0,"n_if_ahead_10":100,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1103,"desc":"Their spike: -1103g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":210,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":210,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":210,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":210,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":60.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-57.0,-101.0,-151.5,-162.5,-244.0,-289.0,-315.0,-440.5,-634.5,-925.0,-1112.5,-1390.5,-1810.0,-2197.0,-2313.0,-2680.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":67.2,"n_if_ahead_10":67,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2680,"desc":"Their spike: -2680g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":111,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":111,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":111,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":111,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":63.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,26.0,42.0,57.0,31.0,127.0,158.0,180.0,59.0,33.0,-13.0,-114.0,-99.0,-245.0,-174.0,-14.0,86.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.5,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":176,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":176,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":176,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":176,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":61.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.5,4.0,9.5,19.0,7.0,37.5,17.5,59.0,63.5,164.0,228.0,272.5,190.0,-49.0,110.0,192.0,-47.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.6,"n_if_ahead_10":99,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":63,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":63,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":63,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":63,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.8,"upper":65.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,56.0,52.0,146.0,199.0,172.0,124.0,87.0,162.0,264.0,317.0,225.0,170.0,-636.0,-917.0,-993.0,-1219.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.5,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":33,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (33% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1219,"desc":"Their spike: -1219g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1758,"desc":"Close before 29 min - wins avg 29m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":297,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 4:57)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,55.0,47.0,60.0,80.0,113.0,207.0,239.0,293.0,459.0,357.0,363.0,-211.0,-666.0,-1520.5,-1586.0,-2132.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.6,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":161,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":161,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":161,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":161,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.7,"upper":61.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[34.0,58.0,119.0,126.0,270.0,285.0,265.0,282.0,315.0,299.0,334.0,320.0,179.5,-82.0,-432.0,-916.5,-1372.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":114,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1372,"desc":"Their spike: -1372g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1682,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 30m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":340,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":340,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":340,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":340,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":58.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-35.0,-57.0,-70.5,-114.0,-88.0,-99.5,-110.0,-123.5,-199.0,-282.0,-349.0,-426.0,-596.0,-737.0,-809.5,-914.0,-725.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":134,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-914,"desc":"Their spike: -914g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":453,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":453,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":453,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":453,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.2,"upper":57.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,38.0,56.0,29.0,13.0,-22.0,-103.0,-132.0,-123.0,-164.5,-238.0,-300.5,-509.0,-825.0,-1075.5,-1277.0,-1472.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.7,"n_if_ahead_10":201,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1472,"desc":"Their spike: -1472g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":292,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":292,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":292,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":292,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":58.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.5,-2.0,-24.0,-24.5,-15.5,27.5,30.0,-14.5,23.0,37.0,19.0,34.0,-45.0,-286.0,-248.0,-301.0,-392.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":149,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-392,"desc":"Their spike: -392g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Chogath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":55,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":55,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":55,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":55,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":65.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,13.0,-42.0,-20.0,-21.0,-15.0,7.0,58.0,93.0,111.0,98.0,44.0,113.5,87.5,339.0,18.0,361.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":31,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":361,"desc":"Your spike: +361g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":574,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":574,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":574,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":574,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":56.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-50.0,-71.0,-100.5,-121.0,-162.5,-220.0,-257.0,-231.0,-292.5,-350.0,-428.0,-670.0,-762.0,-824.5,-837.0,-949.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":217,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-949,"desc":"Their spike: -949g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":488,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":488,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":488,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":488,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.5,11.5,-8.0,-34.0,-49.5,-93.5,-129.5,-124.5,-118.0,-232.0,-245.0,-433.5,-513.0,-677.0,-887.0,-931.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":212,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-931,"desc":"Their spike: -931g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Ahri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":720,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":720,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":720,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":720,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":55.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,10.5,28.0,36.0,38.5,11.0,30.5,-12.5,-42.0,-91.0,-155.0,-175.5,-254.5,-351.5,-409.0,-490.0,-603.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.3,"n_if_ahead_10":344,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-603,"desc":"Their spike: -603g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":233,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":233,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":233,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":233,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":58.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,12.0,15.0,9.0,-13.0,-5.0,0.0,-51.0,-26.0,-127.5,-108.5,-92.0,-352.0,-400.5,-615.0,-647.0,-1073.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.7,"n_if_ahead_10":113,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1073,"desc":"Their spike: -1073g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":348,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":348,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":348,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":348,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.5,"upper":56.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[9.5,21.5,49.0,96.0,131.5,145.0,138.0,190.0,196.0,143.0,117.0,114.0,-147.5,-257.0,-441.0,-685.5,-914.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":208,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-914,"desc":"Their spike: -914g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1832,"desc":"Close before 30 min - wins avg 30m vs losses 30m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 5:00)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":58,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":58,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":58,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":58,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.2,"upper":64.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.5,97.0,150.0,146.0,212.5,260.0,303.0,379.0,453.0,421.0,426.5,383.0,708.0,649.0,95.0,416.0,536.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":42,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1080,"value":708,"desc":"Your spike: +708g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":21,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.4,"upper":68.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,23.0,47.0,65.0,81.0,132.0,42.0,69.0,52.0,-22.0,-154.0,-264.0,-308.0,-30.5,-4.0,-500.0,-657.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Neeko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":20,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":68.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,12.0,29.0,79.0,190.0,110.0,137.0,82.0,172.0,9.0,-137.0,-206.0,-108.0,-195.0,-85.5,162.5,-270.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.9,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":427,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":427,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":427,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":427,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,0.0,-8.0,22.0,-1.0,-1.0,-21.0,-22.0,-128.0,-165.0,-162.5,-297.0,-578.0,-696.0,-734.0,-834.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.6,"n_if_ahead_10":203,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-834,"desc":"Their spike: -834g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":209,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":209,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":209,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":209,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.5,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-2.0,8.0,8.0,22.0,26.0,3.0,22.0,39.0,-46.5,-48.5,-107.0,-204.5,-303.0,-318.0,-245.0,-205.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":112,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-318,"desc":"Their spike: -318g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":92,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":92,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":92,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":31,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":92,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.0,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-28.0,-37.5,-37.5,-75.5,-91.5,-79.5,-75.0,-158.0,-215.5,-316.0,-380.0,-212.0,-345.0,-399.0,-305.5,-389.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.9,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-399,"desc":"Their spike: -399g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":159,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":159,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":159,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":159,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.2,"upper":58.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,13.0,32.0,15.0,57.0,99.0,97.0,119.0,71.0,167.0,211.0,144.0,-1.5,-126.0,-168.5,-319.0,-631.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":92,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-631,"desc":"Their spike: -631g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":81,"desc":"Winners average 81 CS at 10:00 (losers: 75)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":526,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":526,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":526,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":27,"max_points":30,"sample_size":526,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":20,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.1,"upper":54.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[23.0,32.0,-5.0,-26.5,-82.5,-143.0,-189.0,-220.0,-292.0,-360.5,-576.0,-688.0,-940.5,-1101.0,-1397.5,-1850.0,-1941.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.1,"n_if_ahead_10":179,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1941,"desc":"Their spike: -1941g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":19,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.1,"upper":65.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,32.0,0.5,-49.5,-82.5,-9.0,-137.5,-124.5,52.5,-60.5,113.0,-39.0,-407.0,-841.0,-1078.0,-588.0,-895.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.8,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":373,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":373,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":373,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":373,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.8,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.0,40.0,74.0,90.0,113.0,131.0,129.0,181.0,141.0,127.0,223.0,221.0,206.5,302.0,370.0,228.0,537.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.8,"n_if_ahead_10":218,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":537,"desc":"Your spike: +537g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":353,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":353,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":353,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":353,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.7,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-8.0,-2.0,14.0,-13.0,-16.0,-29.0,-56.0,-38.0,-53.0,-36.0,-69.0,-101.0,-347.0,-542.0,-520.0,-815.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.1,"n_if_ahead_10":171,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-815,"desc":"Their spike: -815g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":668,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":668,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":668,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":668,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":53.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[4.0,20.0,37.0,34.0,38.0,32.5,11.0,-18.0,-20.5,-72.5,-216.0,-209.0,-267.0,-469.5,-579.5,-538.0,-549.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":323,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-579,"desc":"Their spike: -579g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":305,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:05 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":188,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":188,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":188,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":45,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":188,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,14.0,13.5,33.5,30.0,37.5,-1.0,28.5,-2.0,-30.0,-149.0,-160.5,-278.0,-406.5,-349.5,-321.0,-460.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.0,"n_if_ahead_10":93,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-460,"desc":"Their spike: -460g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:00)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.9,"upper":63.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-8.0,-79.0,-236.0,-176.0,-412.0,-277.0,-211.0,-461.0,-239.0,-418.0,-566.0,-345.0,-336.0,-362.0,-122.0,-781.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":352,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":352,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":352,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":352,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,26.0,47.0,56.5,81.5,135.0,128.0,123.0,57.0,13.5,31.5,68.0,-34.0,16.0,-170.5,-170.5,39.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.4,"n_if_ahead_10":195,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":355,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":355,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":355,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":355,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.3,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-3.0,-17.0,-31.0,-42.0,-32.0,38.0,-12.0,-63.0,-209.0,-263.0,-393.0,-559.5,-826.0,-1052.5,-1131.0,-1387.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":160,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1387,"desc":"Their spike: -1387g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":316,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":316,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":316,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":316,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":53.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-42.0,-107.0,-110.0,-165.0,-238.0,-240.5,-270.0,-332.5,-470.0,-563.0,-671.5,-857.0,-1136.0,-1240.0,-1141.0,-1209.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.8,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1240,"desc":"Their spike: -1240g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":353,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":353,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":353,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":353,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.4,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,9.0,-8.0,-17.0,-29.0,-57.0,-66.0,-77.0,-171.0,-255.5,-204.5,-472.5,-604.0,-658.5,-946.0,-955.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.7,"n_if_ahead_10":156,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-955,"desc":"Their spike: -955g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":236,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":236,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":236,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":236,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":53.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.5,25.0,16.5,50.0,32.0,29.5,-8.5,-5.5,-59.5,-232.5,-349.0,-386.5,-524.0,-640.0,-713.0,-818.0,-1251.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.7,"n_if_ahead_10":106,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1251,"desc":"Their spike: -1251g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":163,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":163,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":163,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":163,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.7,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-36.0,-79.0,-41.0,-95.0,-162.0,-252.0,-231.0,-308.0,-393.5,-483.5,-653.0,-826.0,-1070.5,-1347.0,-1651.0,-2103.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":62,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2103,"desc":"Their spike: -2103g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Talon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":123,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":123,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":123,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":123,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,5.0,18.0,22.0,6.0,-72.0,-146.0,-146.0,-177.0,-337.0,-378.0,-390.5,-674.5,-889.5,-983.0,-1254.0,-1061.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.5,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1254,"desc":"Their spike: -1254g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":149,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":149,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":149,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":149,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.1,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,36.0,28.0,-56.0,-123.0,-157.0,-184.0,-302.0,-319.0,-566.0,-581.5,-718.5,-826.0,-906.0,-1120.0,-903.0,-416.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-1120,"desc":"Their spike: -1120g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":188,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":188,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":188,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":188,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.8,"upper":53.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,22.0,49.5,62.5,105.0,116.5,135.0,207.5,231.0,204.0,253.5,293.0,113.5,-4.0,-307.0,-571.0,-893.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":112,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-893,"desc":"Their spike: -893g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":693,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":693,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":693,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":67,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":693,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.1,"upper":50.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-26.0,-25.0,-31.0,-35.0,-24.0,-7.0,-28.0,-58.0,-116.0,-188.5,-218.0,-370.0,-490.0,-727.0,-833.0,-1092.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.4,"n_if_ahead_10":324,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1092,"desc":"Their spike: -1092g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":56,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":56,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":56,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":56,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.0,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-16.0,12.0,63.0,107.0,35.5,139.5,123.5,27.0,25.0,-57.5,105.5,-39.5,-136.5,-107.0,8.0,-143.0,-842.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.7,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-842,"desc":"Their spike: -842g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":195,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":195,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":195,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":195,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.3,"upper":53.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-25.0,-42.0,-115.0,-155.0,-215.0,-265.0,-335.0,-457.0,-512.0,-674.0,-790.0,-1066.0,-1358.0,-1588.0,-1796.0,-1676.5,-2122.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.0,"n_if_ahead_10":49,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2122,"desc":"Their spike: -2122g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Hwei","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":356,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":356,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":356,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":55,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":356,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.7,"upper":51.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,0.0,19.0,23.5,15.5,15.0,3.0,-5.0,34.5,-84.0,-162.0,-202.0,-253.0,-354.0,-577.0,-769.0,-677.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":184,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-769,"desc":"Their spike: -769g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.2,"upper":59.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[13.0,31.0,29.0,140.0,113.0,126.0,121.0,47.5,181.5,379.5,561.0,538.5,256.5,274.5,296.0,-498.0,-728.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.3,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":480,"value":35,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-8:00 (35% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-728,"desc":"Their spike: -728g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":66,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":66,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":66,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":34,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":66,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":23.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.0,"upper":57.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,46.5,52.5,65.0,37.0,6.5,53.5,12.0,-65.5,-68.5,-105.0,-42.0,82.0,-73.0,-254.0,-200.0,20.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":30,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":439,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":439,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":439,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":439,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":49.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.0,28.0,48.0,46.0,56.0,0.0,-57.0,-73.0,-113.0,-206.5,-326.0,-308.0,-553.0,-661.5,-755.0,-970.0,-1168.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.4,"n_if_ahead_10":188,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1168,"desc":"Their spike: -1168g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Fizz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":348,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":348,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":348,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":348,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.4,"upper":49.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,-37.0,-89.0,-125.5,-163.5,-214.0,-283.0,-301.0,-405.5,-638.0,-779.5,-905.0,-1258.5,-1510.0,-1845.0,-1935.0,-2172.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.3,"n_if_ahead_10":103,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-2172,"desc":"Their spike: -2172g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":88,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":88,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":88,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":88,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.4,"upper":54.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,34.0,-24.0,-87.0,-132.5,-116.0,-158.0,-248.0,-145.0,-139.0,-242.0,-464.0,-651.0,-972.0,-1112.5,-1264.0,-1075.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.9,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1264,"desc":"Their spike: -1264g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":73,"desc":"Winners average 73 CS at 10:00 (losers: 67)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":94,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":94,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":94,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":94,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.0,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-16.0,-25.5,-40.5,-101.5,-147.5,-207.5,-277.5,-426.0,-409.5,-610.5,-570.0,-791.0,-752.0,-866.0,-1230.5,-1405.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.5,"n_if_ahead_10":26,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1405,"desc":"Their spike: -1405g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Gragas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":40,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":40,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":40,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":40,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.5,"upper":57.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[30.0,30.5,79.0,81.5,143.5,181.0,180.0,66.5,-12.5,-7.0,-172.0,-281.0,-632.0,-135.0,-719.0,-540.0,320.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.6,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-719,"desc":"Their spike: -719g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":81,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":81,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":81,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":81,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":21.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.8,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,14.0,-1.0,-27.0,-54.0,-68.0,-35.0,-67.0,-110.0,-140.0,-254.0,-62.0,-368.0,-409.5,-729.5,-510.0,-240.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-729,"desc":"Their spike: -729g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":80,"desc":"Winners average 80 CS at 10:00 (losers: 74)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Brand","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":70,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":70,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":70,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":70,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":12.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":38.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":38.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":28.0,"upper":50.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.5,-23.5,-89.5,-140.5,-149.0,-121.5,-105.5,-206.0,-154.5,-365.0,-392.0,-575.0,-811.0,-929.0,-1048.0,-1279.0,-1887.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":28,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1887,"desc":"Their spike: -1887g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:01)"}]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}