{"matchups":[{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Jhin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":120,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":120,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":120,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":120,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":16.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":66.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":66.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":57.8,"upper":74.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":7.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":61.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-57.5,-125.5,-147.5,-217.0,-219.0,-211.5,-197.5,-229.0,-137.0,-93.0,-229.0,-334.0,-325.0,-257.0,-473.0,-1091.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":48,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1091,"desc":"Their spike: -1091g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":324,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:24 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Warwick","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":27,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":27,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":27,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":27,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":16.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":66.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":66.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":81.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":10.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[5.0,52.0,18.0,32.0,95.0,156.0,25.0,236.0,99.0,116.0,130.0,512.0,404.0,756.0,36.0,172.0,-663.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":80.0,"n_if_ahead_10":15,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Lulu","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":13.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":78.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,12.0,12.0,-106.0,-81.0,1.0,124.0,132.0,142.0,159.0,364.0,395.0,853.5,1049.0,1438.0,1374.0,2238.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":18,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ezreal","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":269,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":269,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":269,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":269,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":13.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":58.4,"upper":69.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":8.4},"shrunk":{"estimate":62.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-68.0,-99.0,-117.0,-141.0,-153.0,-174.0,-189.0,-196.0,-137.0,-212.0,-303.0,-276.5,-97.0,-64.5,-304.0,-324.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":74.3,"n_if_ahead_10":109,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":47,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (47% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-324,"desc":"Their spike: -324g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"KSante","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":64,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":64,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":64,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Small sample","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":64,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":5,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":13.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":64.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":64.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.8,"upper":74.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":6.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.5,22.0,63.5,67.5,77.5,39.0,136.5,53.0,150.5,205.5,234.0,245.0,318.0,177.5,157.0,-284.5,770.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.4,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":770,"desc":"Your spike: +770g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Kalista","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":36,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":36,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":36,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":36,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":13.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":63.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":63.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":77.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":8.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-68.0,-86.0,-193.0,-128.5,-162.0,-394.5,-387.5,-462.0,-369.0,-583.5,-553.0,-647.0,-1249.5,-1726.5,-1396.0,-1553.0,-2155.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":88.9,"n_if_ahead_10":9,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Kaisa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":148,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":148,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":148,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":148,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":10.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":53.5,"upper":68.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":58.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.5,-48.5,-78.0,-76.5,-17.0,0.5,49.5,50.0,94.0,-6.5,50.5,77.5,25.5,-343.0,-441.0,-634.0,-630.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.0,"n_if_ahead_10":84,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":38,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (38% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-634,"desc":"Their spike: -634g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":310,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:10 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Vi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":57,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":57,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":57,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":57,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":10.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":72.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[10.0,57.0,42.0,20.0,200.0,105.0,32.0,128.0,326.0,411.0,433.0,217.0,343.0,287.5,79.0,-388.0,-1042.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.4,"n_if_ahead_10":36,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1042,"desc":"Their spike: -1042g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Shen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":49,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":49,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":49,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":49,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":10.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":61.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":61.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.2,"upper":73.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,6.0,70.0,71.0,145.0,181.0,216.0,273.0,398.0,402.0,606.0,558.0,776.0,896.5,1145.0,1433.0,1865.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.6,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1865,"desc":"Your spike: +1865g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":309,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:09)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ashe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":56,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":56,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":56,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":56,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":10.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":72.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-7.5,-1.0,37.5,48.0,85.0,252.5,332.0,324.0,569.5,662.5,800.0,754.0,1248.0,1559.0,1742.0,2525.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.8,"n_if_ahead_10":38,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2525,"desc":"Your spike: +2525g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Sett","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":71,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":71,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":71,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":71,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":10.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":71.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":56.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,36.0,56.0,63.0,81.0,139.0,146.0,188.0,304.0,377.5,504.0,519.0,608.0,14.0,148.5,661.5,798.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.0,"n_if_ahead_10":47,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":798,"desc":"Your spike: +798g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Draven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":45,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":45,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":45,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":45,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":1,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":9.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":60.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":60.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":73.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-70.0,-90.0,-191.0,-186.0,-303.0,-498.0,-536.0,-677.0,-627.0,-688.0,-1158.0,-1184.0,-1181.0,-1284.0,-1500.0,-1613.0,-770.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":87.5,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1613,"desc":"Their spike: -1613g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Lucian","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":154,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":154,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":154,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":154,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":9.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.8,"upper":67.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-71.5,-90.0,-155.0,-194.5,-212.5,-184.5,-199.5,-262.0,-267.0,-370.0,-472.0,-425.0,-454.5,-280.5,-739.0,-929.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.5,"n_if_ahead_10":59,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-929,"desc":"Their spike: -929g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Nocturne","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":57,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":57,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":57,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":57,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":9.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.7,"upper":71.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,42.0,84.0,110.0,100.0,182.0,204.0,225.0,217.0,331.0,453.0,519.0,520.0,543.0,719.0,60.0,-881.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.8,"n_if_ahead_10":37,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":43,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (43% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-881,"desc":"Their spike: -881g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Corki","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":254,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":254,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":254,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":254,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":59.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":59.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.9,"upper":64.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":57.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-39.0,-41.5,-54.0,-64.0,-63.5,-83.0,-43.5,-92.5,-43.0,-68.0,45.0,-151.0,-146.5,-325.0,-613.0,-966.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":74.5,"n_if_ahead_10":110,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-966,"desc":"Their spike: -966g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Aphelios","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":34,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":34,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":34,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":34,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":73.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-35.5,-67.5,-82.5,-114.5,-102.0,-214.0,-197.5,-181.5,-209.5,-241.5,-259.0,-310.5,-309.0,-451.0,-77.0,-216.5,-356.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":87.5,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Sejuani","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":41,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":41,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":41,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":41,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":58.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":58.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":72.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":4.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,94.0,94.0,176.0,177.0,127.0,180.0,265.0,273.0,511.0,360.0,431.0,418.0,108.0,970.0,1420.0,1485.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1485,"desc":"Your spike: +1485g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Mordekaiser","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":114,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":114,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":114,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":114,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":66.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,51.0,80.0,70.5,144.5,100.5,97.0,116.5,155.5,140.0,273.0,331.0,285.0,228.0,446.5,348.0,104.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.2,"n_if_ahead_10":68,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":446,"desc":"Your spike: +446g at 24:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 73)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"LeeSin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":59,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":59,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":59,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":59,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":69.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,42.0,43.0,48.0,106.0,119.0,-14.0,-16.0,171.0,122.0,49.0,280.0,87.0,-26.0,-356.0,11.5,-352.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":33,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-356,"desc":"Their spike: -356g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Camille","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":57.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":57.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.2,"upper":70.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,36.5,62.5,44.0,252.5,272.5,325.5,271.0,230.0,255.0,373.5,490.0,-25.0,-40.0,162.5,-409.0,-132.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.0,"n_if_ahead_10":25,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":490,"desc":"Your spike: +490g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Pyke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":59,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":59,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":59,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":59,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.3,"upper":67.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,30.0,13.0,24.0,115.0,115.0,135.0,216.0,205.0,362.0,296.0,155.0,325.0,600.0,613.5,697.0,-101.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.7,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":697,"desc":"Your spike: +697g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Karma","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":195,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":195,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":195,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":195,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.9,"upper":62.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,3.0,2.0,13.0,36.0,83.0,114.0,114.0,147.0,304.5,249.0,334.0,430.0,780.0,901.0,926.5,1863.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":115,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":58,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (58% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1863,"desc":"Your spike: +1863g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:08)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Malphite","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":428,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":428,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":428,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":428,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.1,"upper":60.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[33.5,70.0,92.0,153.0,165.0,155.0,187.0,216.5,260.5,326.0,365.0,373.5,524.0,690.0,790.0,801.5,954.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.4,"n_if_ahead_10":269,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":954,"desc":"Your spike: +954g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Viego","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":126,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":126,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":126,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":126,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.8,"upper":63.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.5,31.0,29.0,34.0,82.0,70.0,29.5,1.0,155.0,151.5,17.0,69.0,51.0,85.5,-96.0,-611.0,-718.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":73,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-718,"desc":"Their spike: -718g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"MissFortune","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":45,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":45,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":45,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":45,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":69.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-83.0,-130.0,-118.0,-218.0,-201.0,-133.0,-143.0,-142.0,-252.0,-247.0,-264.0,-526.5,-747.0,-368.0,-1173.0,-1800.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1800,"desc":"Their spike: -1800g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"MonkeyKing","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":45,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":45,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":45,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":28,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":45,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.2,"upper":69.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":3.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[19.0,35.0,103.0,53.0,123.0,9.0,171.0,198.0,193.0,208.0,385.0,595.0,824.0,1043.0,1047.0,866.0,453.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":24,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1047,"desc":"Your spike: +1047g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":79,"desc":"Winners average 79 CS at 10:00 (losers: 72)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Chogath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":434,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":434,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":434,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":434,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":55.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":55.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.8,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":55.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,18.0,21.0,15.5,18.0,53.5,37.5,61.0,40.5,122.0,137.0,143.0,190.0,-30.0,0.0,-45.0,-41.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.3,"n_if_ahead_10":227,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Pantheon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":440,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":440,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":440,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":440,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":59.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-3.5,-16.0,-53.5,-34.0,-35.0,-82.0,-95.0,-98.5,-81.0,-101.0,-68.0,-28.0,18.0,-87.0,119.0,194.0,2.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.8,"n_if_ahead_10":199,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Vayne","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":84,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":84,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":84,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":37,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":84,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":7,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":65.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-21.0,-26.5,-6.0,4.5,38.0,91.5,93.0,240.5,211.0,250.0,157.0,125.0,-125.0,-148.0,-404.0,-115.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":50,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-404,"desc":"Their spike: -404g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Sivir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":42,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":42,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":42,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":42,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":28.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.9,"upper":68.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-54.0,-83.5,-96.0,-107.5,-104.5,-152.5,-110.0,-111.0,-325.5,-407.5,-268.5,-337.0,-270.5,-495.0,-1098.5,-750.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":39,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (39% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1098,"desc":"Their spike: -1098g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Galio","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3281,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3281,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3281,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":73,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3281,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":15,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.8,"upper":56.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.8},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,40.0,61.0,74.0,96.0,124.0,165.0,199.0,265.0,350.5,448.0,485.5,644.0,840.0,988.0,1142.0,1364.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":2091,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1364,"desc":"Your spike: +1364g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Graves","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":59,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":59,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":59,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":33,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":59,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":4,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":24.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.7,"upper":66.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-4.0,-10.0,-84.0,-63.0,-48.0,-139.0,-28.0,-17.0,38.0,367.0,93.0,-91.0,-128.5,-389.5,-352.0,-849.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.5,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-849,"desc":"Their spike: -849g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":840,"desc":"Best trade window at 14:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Yone","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3806,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3806,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3806,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":72,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3806,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":14,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":54.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":54.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":52.6,"upper":55.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":2.6},"shrunk":{"estimate":54.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,14.0,26.0,34.0,40.0,46.0,59.0,93.5,118.5,155.0,186.0,178.0,81.0,-1.5,-37.0,-165.0,-231.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.4,"n_if_ahead_10":2145,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"TahmKench","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":52,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":52,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":52,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":52,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":26.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.5,"upper":66.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[29.0,21.5,105.5,163.0,191.0,258.5,249.0,296.0,334.0,347.5,417.5,473.0,508.5,964.0,1264.0,1465.0,2132.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.4,"n_if_ahead_10":35,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":480,"value":36,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-8:00 (36% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2132,"desc":"Your spike: +2132g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Udyr","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":39,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":39,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":39,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":27,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":39,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":29.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.6,"upper":68.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-15.0,-8.0,-17.0,22.0,-11.0,-43.0,171.0,24.0,339.0,344.0,419.0,503.0,567.0,836.0,472.0,1467.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.4,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Azir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1483,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1483,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1483,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1483,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":12,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.2,"upper":56.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,2.0,7.0,18.0,20.0,52.0,70.0,122.0,145.0,202.0,230.0,268.0,244.0,230.5,73.0,-59.0,-99.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":880,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Orianna","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3415,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3415,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3415,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3415,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":11,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":51.9,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"edge","side":"favored","margin_pp":1.9},"shrunk":{"estimate":53.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-5.0,-18.0,-28.0,-33.0,-49.0,-43.0,-42.0,-26.0,-33.0,-25.0,-10.0,-20.0,-8.0,46.0,57.0,82.0,-12.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.1,"n_if_ahead_10":1657,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"FiddleSticks","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":71,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":71,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":71,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":71,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.0,"upper":64.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[26.0,46.0,45.0,91.0,205.0,188.0,178.0,172.0,140.0,301.0,572.0,773.0,438.5,777.0,975.0,1638.5,1428.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.1,"n_if_ahead_10":43,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1638,"desc":"Your spike: +1638g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zyra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":114,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":114,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":114,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":42,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":114,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":62.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,26.0,52.0,68.0,111.0,188.5,261.0,254.0,237.5,412.5,508.5,471.0,598.0,989.0,1155.0,1344.0,1597.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.4,"n_if_ahead_10":73,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1597,"desc":"Your spike: +1597g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Teemo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":86,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":86,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":86,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":86,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.0,"upper":63.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-11.0,6.5,34.5,32.5,38.5,70.0,101.0,231.5,226.0,374.0,381.5,531.0,636.0,783.0,1191.0,1109.0,427.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":56,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":1191,"desc":"Your spike: +1191g at 24:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Nidalee","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":32,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":32,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":32,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":32,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":32.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.4,"upper":69.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-3.0,-24.5,-81.0,-159.0,-106.0,-332.0,-425.5,-384.5,-386.5,-176.0,-65.0,53.5,125.0,40.5,226.0,665.0,651.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":75.0,"n_if_ahead_10":8,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Locke","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":563,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":563,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":563,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":563,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":53.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":53.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":57.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-49.0,-114.0,-160.0,-215.0,-216.0,-258.0,-224.0,-277.0,-374.5,-459.0,-470.0,-617.0,-742.0,-990.0,-912.0,-1328.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.1,"n_if_ahead_10":211,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1328,"desc":"Their spike: -1328g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"AurelionSol","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1543,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1543,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1543,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1543,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.3,"upper":55.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,7.0,29.0,48.0,109.0,173.0,218.0,285.0,354.0,497.0,564.0,601.5,694.0,691.0,695.0,647.5,306.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.1,"n_if_ahead_10":1081,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1440,"value":695,"desc":"Your spike: +695g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":309,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:09 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1440,"desc":"Best trade window at 24:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Urgot","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":38,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":38,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":38,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":16,"max_points":30,"sample_size":38,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":30.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.3,"upper":67.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.5},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.5,-17.0,-108.5,-148.5,-57.0,-25.5,-29.0,116.0,125.5,106.5,80.5,91.5,-106.5,-777.0,-350.0,-214.5,-607.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.4,"n_if_ahead_10":21,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Velkoz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":873,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":873,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":873,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":873,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":55.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,-20.0,-30.0,-32.0,-55.0,-102.0,-135.0,-112.0,-155.0,-160.0,-187.0,-154.0,-83.0,-20.0,60.0,234.0,340.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.8,"n_if_ahead_10":366,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":340,"desc":"Your spike: +340g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Riven","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":333,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":333,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":333,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":333,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.2,"upper":57.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,57.0,94.0,112.0,155.0,173.0,225.0,241.0,181.0,227.0,170.0,244.0,132.0,107.0,-48.0,-13.0,64.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.5,"n_if_ahead_10":197,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":80,"desc":"Winners average 80 CS at 10:00 (losers: 74)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Tryndamere","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":225,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":225,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":225,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":225,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":58.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-26.0,-40.0,-77.0,-108.0,-108.0,-68.0,-161.0,-178.0,-144.0,-144.0,-167.5,-273.0,-248.5,-573.0,-738.0,-688.5,-1077.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":96,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1077,"desc":"Their spike: -1077g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Smolder","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":597,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":597,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":597,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":597,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":56.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-4.0,0.0,2.0,28.0,40.0,101.0,122.0,128.0,134.0,183.0,227.0,224.5,337.0,314.0,258.0,-289.5,-480.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":349,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-480,"desc":"Their spike: -480g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:01)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Anivia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2308,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2308,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2308,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2308,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.4,"upper":54.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,2.0,1.0,16.0,15.0,16.5,2.5,15.0,32.0,16.0,60.0,80.0,94.0,120.0,174.0,185.0,281.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.8,"n_if_ahead_10":1189,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Jayce","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":642,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":642,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":642,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":642,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.3,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-26.0,-64.5,-90.0,-101.5,-132.0,-157.5,-175.0,-205.5,-305.0,-335.0,-393.0,-522.0,-651.5,-839.5,-953.0,-1157.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.0,"n_if_ahead_10":265,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1157,"desc":"Their spike: -1157g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zeri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":46,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":46,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":46,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":46,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":27.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.1,"upper":65.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-44.0,-90.5,-169.5,-186.5,-190.0,-221.0,-280.0,-141.5,-38.5,-179.0,-410.5,-515.0,-407.0,-991.0,-905.5,-661.0,-1754.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1754,"desc":"Their spike: -1754g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Gwen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":413,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":413,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":413,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":52,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":413,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.2,"upper":56.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,53.0,96.0,122.0,145.0,191.0,245.0,285.0,321.0,294.0,263.0,309.5,242.0,-56.0,-259.0,-618.0,-1206.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.7,"n_if_ahead_10":284,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1206,"desc":"Their spike: -1206g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1721,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":600,"desc":"Best trade window at 10:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ryze","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2577,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2577,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2577,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2577,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.1,"upper":54.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":52.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-12.0,-21.0,-34.0,-38.0,-27.0,-24.0,-2.0,4.0,58.0,110.0,149.0,201.0,168.0,61.0,-54.5,-3.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.9,"n_if_ahead_10":1297,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1080,"desc":"Best trade window at 18:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Gragas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":304,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":304,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":304,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":50,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":304,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.4,"upper":57.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,56.0,75.0,87.0,145.5,102.0,90.5,98.0,31.5,-1.0,-7.5,-43.0,-74.5,-5.0,8.0,-198.5,-384.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.8,"n_if_ahead_10":157,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-384,"desc":"Their spike: -384g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Taliyah","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1555,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1555,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1555,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1555,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":52.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":52.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.5,"upper":54.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-14.0,-21.0,-30.0,3.0,38.0,70.0,101.0,128.0,168.0,207.0,223.0,299.0,341.0,378.0,423.5,507.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.3,"n_if_ahead_10":885,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":507,"desc":"Your spike: +507g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Nunu","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":164,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":164,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":164,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":164,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":59.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,22.0,-7.5,6.5,-29.5,8.5,62.5,22.0,101.5,252.0,370.5,258.5,335.0,623.0,680.0,857.0,730.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.2,"n_if_ahead_10":89,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":857,"desc":"Your spike: +857g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Seraphine","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":230,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":230,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":230,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":230,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.3,"upper":58.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,14.0,14.0,17.5,71.5,119.5,102.5,123.5,171.5,206.5,288.0,412.0,529.0,724.0,799.0,1027.5,1146.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.3,"n_if_ahead_10":131,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":59,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (59% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":1146,"desc":"Your spike: +1146g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:03)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Hwei","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3403,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3403,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3403,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3403,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":50.0,"upper":53.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-10.0,-15.0,-27.0,-22.0,-13.0,-8.0,0.0,22.0,16.0,31.5,59.5,97.5,170.0,158.0,226.0,259.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.8,"n_if_ahead_10":1747,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Jax","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":31,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":31,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":31,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":20,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":31,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":34.8,"upper":68.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,62.0,83.0,42.0,144.0,229.0,187.0,225.0,295.0,33.0,171.0,125.0,254.0,352.5,310.0,-321.0,-614.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.9,"n_if_ahead_10":19,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Vex","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2069,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2069,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2069,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2069,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":53.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-8.0,-21.0,-27.0,-35.0,-21.0,-37.0,-31.0,-30.0,-56.0,-96.0,-133.0,-131.0,-87.5,-118.0,-150.0,-31.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.5,"n_if_ahead_10":1000,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":43,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (43% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":318,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:18 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Sion","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":706,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":706,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":706,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":53,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":706,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.7,"upper":55.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,14.0,36.0,23.5,64.5,67.0,71.0,96.0,97.5,10.0,6.0,-47.0,-63.0,-166.0,-335.5,-529.0,-287.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.6,"n_if_ahead_10":396,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-529,"desc":"Their spike: -529g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Renekton","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":74,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":74,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":74,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":29,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":74,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":6,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":22.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.2,"upper":62.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.5,14.0,-0.5,0.5,31.0,85.0,117.5,118.5,112.5,167.5,231.5,123.0,321.0,458.0,584.0,305.0,711.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":65.1,"n_if_ahead_10":43,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":711,"desc":"Your spike: +711g at 30:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":77,"desc":"Winners average 77 CS at 10:00 (losers: 69)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Aurora","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2487,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2487,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2487,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2487,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.1,"upper":53.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-7.0,-8.0,-7.0,-16.0,-18.0,-12.0,-24.0,-25.0,-23.5,-3.5,-4.0,-7.5,33.5,-59.0,-71.5,-162.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.0,"n_if_ahead_10":1211,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Lux","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3472,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3472,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3472,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3472,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.3,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-7.0,-14.0,-17.5,-28.0,-34.5,-40.0,-29.0,-32.0,-64.0,-47.0,-56.0,-34.0,-31.0,-7.0,17.5,-126.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":1676,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Sylas","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":7806,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":7806,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":7806,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":7806,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":51.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":51.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.9,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":51.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[23.0,29.0,28.0,21.5,20.0,21.0,8.0,42.0,54.0,58.0,54.0,60.0,72.0,78.5,83.5,60.0,170.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":4084,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":74,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (74% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Cassiopeia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":833,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":833,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":833,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":833,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.5,"upper":54.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.0,-44.0,-73.0,-92.0,-106.0,-107.0,-100.0,-136.0,-93.0,-45.0,-77.0,-39.5,14.5,-61.0,-148.5,-165.0,-172.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":382,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Gangplank","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":343,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":343,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":343,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":343,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.5,"upper":56.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,4.0,5.0,-1.0,-34.0,-67.0,-98.0,-100.0,-189.0,-272.0,-471.0,-476.0,-687.5,-759.0,-1168.0,-1471.0,-1964.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.8,"n_if_ahead_10":138,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1964,"desc":"Their spike: -1964g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Leblanc","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3529,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3529,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3529,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3529,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":52.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-7.0,-40.0,-96.0,-134.0,-167.0,-180.0,-202.0,-219.0,-240.0,-270.0,-303.0,-317.0,-365.0,-426.0,-443.0,-457.0,-477.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.7,"n_if_ahead_10":1342,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-477,"desc":"Their spike: -477g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"MasterYi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":87,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":87,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":87,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":19,"max_points":30,"sample_size":87,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.0},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.3,"upper":60.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-68.0,-56.0,-23.0,18.0,2.0,104.0,120.0,182.0,283.0,304.0,380.0,227.0,-54.0,-594.0,-506.5,866.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.0,"n_if_ahead_10":53,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":866,"desc":"Your spike: +866g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":74,"desc":"Winners average 74 CS at 10:00 (losers: 68)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:07)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Yasuo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":5103,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":5103,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":5103,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":5103,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.1,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-40.0,-70.0,-101.0,-121.0,-142.0,-159.0,-175.0,-195.0,-225.0,-268.0,-296.0,-410.0,-518.0,-580.0,-629.0,-599.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":63.2,"n_if_ahead_10":2021,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-629,"desc":"Their spike: -629g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Akali","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":4491,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":4491,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":4491,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":4491,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.0,"upper":52.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,14.0,8.0,7.0,-8.0,-26.0,-41.0,-54.0,-53.0,-51.0,-87.5,-100.0,-181.0,-260.0,-310.0,-341.0,-369.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":2109,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-369,"desc":"Their spike: -369g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Viktor","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":6249,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":6249,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":6249,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":6249,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":49.2,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-8.0,-30.0,-52.0,-57.0,-62.0,-54.0,-48.0,-43.0,-33.0,-43.5,-38.0,-49.0,-61.0,-77.0,-131.0,-159.5,-149.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.7,"n_if_ahead_10":3005,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"TwistedFate","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3333,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3333,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3333,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3333,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.7,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-34.0,-69.0,-109.0,-148.0,-169.0,-171.0,-208.0,-222.0,-247.0,-281.0,-331.5,-359.0,-374.5,-465.5,-477.0,-517.0,-537.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.9,"n_if_ahead_10":1208,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-537,"desc":"Their spike: -537g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"DrMundo","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":119,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":119,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":119,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":35,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":119,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":11,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":17.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":59.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,70.0,84.0,140.0,191.0,203.0,231.0,276.0,336.0,336.0,415.0,403.0,290.0,533.0,256.0,349.0,-28.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.5,"n_if_ahead_10":88,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":57,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (57% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":533,"desc":"Your spike: +533g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":298,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 4:58)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Lissandra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3200,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3200,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3200,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3200,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.6,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,3.0,-4.0,-4.0,0.5,-4.5,10.0,8.0,-32.5,-45.5,-48.0,-67.0,-40.0,35.0,121.0,149.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.1,"n_if_ahead_10":1619,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Diana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2687,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2687,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2687,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2687,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":52.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,-8.0,-57.0,-103.0,-154.0,-197.0,-234.0,-265.0,-302.0,-343.0,-403.5,-474.0,-538.0,-680.0,-667.5,-690.0,-877.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":939,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":76,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (76% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-877,"desc":"Their spike: -877g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":329,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:29 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Irelia","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1984,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1984,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1984,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1984,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.1,"upper":52.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-54.0,-104.0,-151.0,-193.0,-248.5,-320.5,-387.0,-447.0,-531.0,-749.0,-874.0,-1081.0,-1332.0,-1452.0,-1607.0,-1674.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":66.7,"n_if_ahead_10":661,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1674,"desc":"Their spike: -1674g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Xerath","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3479,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3479,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3479,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3479,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.5,"upper":51.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[12.0,8.0,2.0,-2.0,-22.0,-33.0,-27.0,-17.0,-18.0,-49.0,-62.0,-87.5,-107.0,-152.0,-105.0,-139.0,-306.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.9,"n_if_ahead_10":1706,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":63,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (63% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-306,"desc":"Their spike: -306g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ekko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2282,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2282,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2282,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2282,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.0,"upper":52.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[8.0,12.0,1.0,-14.0,-21.0,-42.0,-56.5,-61.5,-49.0,-52.0,-101.0,-134.0,-233.0,-266.0,-417.0,-517.0,-509.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.9,"n_if_ahead_10":1085,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-517,"desc":"Their spike: -517g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Yorick","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":158,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":158,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":158,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":158,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":57.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,12.5,-11.5,-8.0,-25.5,-51.0,-90.0,-99.5,-102.0,-146.5,-142.5,-164.0,-180.0,-221.5,-508.0,-757.0,-1076.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.2,"n_if_ahead_10":67,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1076,"desc":"Their spike: -1076g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Rakan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":18,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.2,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.5,32.5,44.0,31.5,55.0,278.0,155.5,251.0,159.5,486.0,707.0,831.0,648.0,1173.0,1517.0,1355.0,1664.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":47.1,"n_if_ahead_10":17,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Darius","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":30,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":30,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":30,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":18,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Insufficient evidence score","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":30,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":33.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":0,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":50.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":50.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":33.2,"upper":66.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":50.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,5.0,-34.0,15.0,123.5,203.0,191.0,296.0,186.5,446.0,343.5,226.5,-10.5,-177.0,-179.0,-478.0,-817.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":68.8,"n_if_ahead_10":16,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Annie","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1931,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1931,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1931,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":58,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1931,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.7,"upper":52.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-12.0,-10.0,-6.0,12.0,26.0,43.0,69.0,88.0,128.0,191.0,198.0,201.0,231.0,243.0,303.0,283.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.8,"n_if_ahead_10":1058,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":303,"desc":"Your spike: +303g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Syndra","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":4541,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":4541,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":4541,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":4541,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-4.0,-21.0,-49.0,-64.0,-65.0,-47.0,-49.0,-43.0,-52.0,-96.5,-121.0,-143.5,-176.5,-285.0,-375.5,-474.0,-609.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.5,"n_if_ahead_10":2131,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-609,"desc":"Their spike: -609g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":317,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:17 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Mel","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":4774,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":4774,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":4774,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":4774,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":1,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":48.4,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-56.0,-111.0,-162.0,-224.0,-303.0,-362.0,-431.5,-494.5,-622.0,-749.0,-838.0,-975.0,-1125.0,-1256.0,-1424.0,-1667.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.1,"n_if_ahead_10":1278,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1667,"desc":"Their spike: -1667g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Vladimir","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2535,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2535,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2535,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2535,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":0.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.8,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-10.0,-16.0,-11.0,2.0,17.0,25.0,26.0,51.0,31.0,1.0,-22.0,-70.0,-170.5,-328.0,-380.5,-398.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.6,"n_if_ahead_10":1351,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-398,"desc":"Their spike: -398g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":313,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:13 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Tristana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":327,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":327,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":327,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":327,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-23.0,-44.0,-89.0,-122.0,-175.0,-178.0,-248.0,-262.0,-248.0,-264.0,-321.5,-351.0,-453.5,-719.5,-813.0,-794.0,-850.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.9,"n_if_ahead_10":128,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-850,"desc":"Their spike: -850g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Nasus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":323,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":323,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":323,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":48,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":323,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":10.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":2,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.1,"upper":55.0},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[21.0,56.0,93.0,125.0,192.0,272.0,276.0,330.0,390.0,365.5,358.0,353.0,267.0,125.0,74.0,-4.0,-270.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.5,"n_if_ahead_10":229,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":600,"value":390,"desc":"Your spike: +390g at 10:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":600,"desc":"Best trade window at 10:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Briar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":105,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":105,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":105,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":36,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":105,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":40.1,"upper":58.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[40.0,62.0,183.0,156.0,139.0,90.0,10.0,57.0,82.0,144.0,307.0,333.0,43.0,-252.0,-11.0,-329.5,-373.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.0,"n_if_ahead_10":55,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-373,"desc":"Their spike: -373g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zilean","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":259,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":259,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":259,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":259,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":43.4,"upper":55.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,49.0,71.0,104.0,140.0,179.0,242.0,286.0,373.0,424.0,495.5,565.0,668.0,970.0,1092.0,1321.5,1211.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.4,"n_if_ahead_10":184,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":1321,"desc":"Your spike: +1321g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":306,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:06 (fast: 4:59)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zoe","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2961,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2961,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2961,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2961,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-49.0,-121.0,-171.0,-212.0,-242.0,-270.0,-299.0,-342.0,-422.5,-477.0,-510.5,-496.5,-460.0,-471.5,-362.0,-244.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.8,"n_if_ahead_10":987,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":52,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (52% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":900,"value":-510,"desc":"Their spike: -510g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Katarina","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":5009,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":5009,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":5009,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":5009,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":3,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.9,"upper":50.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[42.0,56.0,43.0,22.0,9.0,-20.0,-46.0,-73.0,-99.0,-136.0,-234.0,-272.0,-427.0,-592.0,-705.0,-799.0,-901.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.8,"n_if_ahead_10":2316,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-901,"desc":"Their spike: -901g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Rumble","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":138,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":138,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":138,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":138,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.4},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.1,"upper":57.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,9.0,-11.0,-58.0,-60.5,-123.5,-166.0,-93.5,-39.0,-4.0,95.0,53.5,-9.0,-79.0,-172.0,-80.0,-220.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.1,"n_if_ahead_10":66,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Talon","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1508,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1508,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1508,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1508,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":5.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.6,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-6.0,-41.5,-71.0,-99.5,-125.5,-144.5,-154.5,-183.5,-164.0,-252.0,-310.0,-342.5,-459.0,-655.0,-762.0,-885.0,-1038.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":62.8,"n_if_ahead_10":623,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":48,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (48% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1038,"desc":"Their spike: -1038g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":326,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:26 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Twitch","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":169,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":169,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":169,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":43,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":169,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":14,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":14.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.7,"upper":56.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-21.0,-50.0,-7.0,-43.0,-87.0,-103.0,-94.0,-55.0,-213.0,-179.0,-132.0,-247.5,-316.0,-205.0,-170.0,-94.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.8,"n_if_ahead_10":78,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1260,"value":-316,"desc":"Their spike: -316g at 21:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":332,"value":307,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:32 (fast: 5:07)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Akshan","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1898,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1898,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1898,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":61,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1898,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":4,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":51.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-48.0,-82.0,-103.0,-116.0,-152.5,-200.0,-262.5,-283.5,-355.0,-477.0,-526.0,-730.0,-1012.0,-1146.0,-1278.0,-1440.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":64.5,"n_if_ahead_10":713,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":61,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (61% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1440,"desc":"Their spike: -1440g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":320,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:20 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Malzahar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":5163,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":5163,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":5163,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":5163,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":49.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":49.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.6,"upper":50.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,18.0,28.0,33.0,47.0,62.0,66.0,89.0,95.0,113.0,86.5,73.0,29.0,-32.5,-96.0,-117.0,-114.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.5,"n_if_ahead_10":2887,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":600,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-10:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Veigar","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3580,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3580,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3580,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3580,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.3,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,18.0,31.0,45.0,75.0,112.0,131.0,159.5,171.5,174.5,153.0,141.5,37.5,-41.0,-171.0,-342.0,-526.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.5,"n_if_ahead_10":2193,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-526,"desc":"Their spike: -526g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 5:00)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Kennen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":266,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":266,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":266,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":266,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.9,"upper":54.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.1,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.5,21.0,14.5,-2.0,14.5,37.5,42.5,49.0,69.0,53.0,-51.5,-59.0,6.5,-162.5,-155.5,-153.0,-361.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.2,"n_if_ahead_10":142,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":71,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (71% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-361,"desc":"Their spike: -361g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":314,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:14 (fast: 5:02)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Morgana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":614,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":614,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":614,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":57,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":614,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":5,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.9,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.9,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[7.0,18.0,22.0,30.0,36.0,37.0,64.5,61.5,89.0,144.5,141.0,160.5,202.5,335.0,562.5,689.0,401.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.1,"n_if_ahead_10":343,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":51,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (51% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1620,"value":689,"desc":"Your spike: +689g at 27:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":328,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:28 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1620,"desc":"Best trade window at 27:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Heimerdinger","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":201,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":201,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":201,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":47,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":201,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.9,"upper":55.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-11.0,-24.0,-38.0,-65.0,-84.0,-151.0,-211.0,-241.0,-285.0,-310.0,-363.0,-464.0,-474.0,-328.0,-328.5,-73.0,-202.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.6,"n_if_ahead_10":71,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1080,"value":-474,"desc":"Their spike: -474g at 18:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":311,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:11 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Fizz","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":3024,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":3024,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":3024,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":3024,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":3.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":6,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":1.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.6,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.6,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":46.9,"upper":50.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,-14.5,-63.5,-104.0,-133.0,-170.5,-198.0,-230.5,-268.5,-315.5,-459.0,-503.5,-692.0,-819.5,-1021.5,-1102.0,-1092.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":58.0,"n_if_ahead_10":1165,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":77,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (77% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1102,"desc":"Their spike: -1102g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Kayle","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":569,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":569,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":569,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":59,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":569,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":7,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.5,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.5,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":52.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,70.0,119.0,182.0,219.0,256.0,303.0,333.0,389.0,432.0,582.5,595.5,565.5,412.0,170.5,-86.0,-443.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.9,"n_if_ahead_10":406,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":54,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (54% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":595,"desc":"Your spike: +595g at 15:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":316,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:16 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":5398,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":5398,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":5398,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":66,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":5398,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":2.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":47.0,"upper":49.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,33.0,-10.0,-40.0,-77.0,-105.0,-153.5,-184.0,-223.0,-335.0,-468.0,-533.0,-667.5,-841.0,-943.0,-1079.0,-1273.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.8,"n_if_ahead_10":2099,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1273,"desc":"Their spike: -1273g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ziggs","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":569,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":569,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":569,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":60,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":28,"max_points":30,"sample_size":569,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":21,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":8.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.2,"upper":52.4},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,-14.0,-27.0,-30.0,-26.0,-35.0,-35.0,-63.0,-69.0,-88.0,-202.0,-208.0,-286.5,-375.0,-485.0,-428.0,-586.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":262,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":42,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (42% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-586,"desc":"Their spike: -586g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:05)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ivern","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":26,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":34.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":31.4,"upper":65.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":49.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,22.0,49.0,63.0,51.0,2.0,206.0,303.0,382.0,483.0,680.0,715.0,876.0,964.5,798.5,909.0,1729.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":20,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Naafiri","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1797,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1797,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1797,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":65,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1797,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.9,"upper":50.6},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,-68.0,-121.0,-169.0,-229.0,-306.0,-350.0,-386.0,-386.0,-469.0,-555.0,-599.0,-664.0,-832.0,-969.0,-1004.0,-1067.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":60.2,"n_if_ahead_10":543,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":66,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (66% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1067,"desc":"Their spike: -1067g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":321,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:21 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Aatrox","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":108,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":108,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":108,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":108,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.0,"upper":57.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[33.5,59.5,-20.0,-70.5,-141.5,-190.0,-248.0,-298.5,-301.0,-446.0,-208.0,-290.5,-190.5,276.0,256.0,207.0,-472.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.0,"n_if_ahead_10":41,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":78,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (78% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-472,"desc":"Their spike: -472g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":330,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:30 (fast: 5:06)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Swain","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":978,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":978,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":978,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":978,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":23,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":6.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.9,"upper":51.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[0.0,0.0,8.5,-4.5,5.0,-12.5,-22.5,5.5,-6.0,24.0,16.5,3.0,4.0,35.0,187.0,239.0,370.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":53.5,"n_if_ahead_10":484,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"volatile","desc":"Volatile matchup - outcome swings on small advantages"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":370,"desc":"Your spike: +370g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Brand","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":720,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":720,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":720,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":62,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":29,"max_points":30,"sample_size":720,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":22,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":7.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":48.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":48.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":44.4,"upper":51.7},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[6.0,-10.5,-28.0,-36.0,-38.5,-11.0,-30.5,12.5,42.0,91.0,155.0,175.5,254.5,351.5,409.0,490.0,603.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.6,"n_if_ahead_10":376,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":64,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (64% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":603,"desc":"Your spike: +603g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":315,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:15 (fast: 5:04)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zac","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":136,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":136,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":136,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":44,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":21,"max_points":30,"sample_size":136,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":12,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":16.5},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.8},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.6,"upper":56.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[22.0,25.5,29.0,34.0,145.0,133.5,156.5,164.5,268.5,242.0,265.0,166.0,254.0,214.5,162.5,97.0,-784.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.8,"n_if_ahead_10":83,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"midgame_spike","desc":"Mid-game spike at 12-15 min - force objectives"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-784,"desc":"Their spike: -784g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":900,"desc":"Force dragon/tower at 12-15 min when you spike hardest"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":305,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:05)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":600,"desc":"Best trade window at 10:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Kassadin","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":2099,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":2099,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":2099,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":68,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":2099,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":25,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":10,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":2.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.6,"upper":49.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[36.0,70.0,116.0,168.0,225.0,255.0,274.0,299.0,294.0,328.5,357.0,385.0,337.0,122.0,-172.0,-457.5,-958.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":54.3,"n_if_ahead_10":1384,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"conversion_problem","desc":"Win lane, fall off late - close before 21 min"},{"type":"danger_window","time":240,"end_time":480,"value":53,"desc":"Most early deaths land 4:00-8:00 (53% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-958,"desc":"Their spike: -958g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1700,"desc":"Close before 28 min - wins avg 28m vs losses 29m"},{"type":"level_timing","time":308,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:08 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Qiyana","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":1650,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":1650,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":1650,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":69,"grade":"credible","label":"Credible evidence score","claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":30,"max_points":30,"sample_size":1650,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":24,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":4.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":12,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":45.0,"upper":49.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.5,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[48.0,0.5,-105.0,-146.0,-208.0,-251.0,-321.0,-360.0,-362.5,-418.5,-487.0,-529.0,-544.5,-567.0,-552.0,-680.0,-748.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":59.7,"n_if_ahead_10":585,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":62,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (62% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-748,"desc":"Their spike: -748g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":334,"value":310,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:34 (fast: 5:10)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Zaahen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":57,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":57,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":57,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":32,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":18,"max_points":30,"sample_size":57,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":3,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.1},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.0,"upper":60.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":48.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,36.0,31.0,1.0,64.0,89.0,145.0,158.0,229.0,225.0,250.0,149.0,431.0,876.0,227.0,210.0,614.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.8,"n_if_ahead_10":34,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":68,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (68% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1260,"value":876,"desc":"Your spike: +876g at 21:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":76,"desc":"Winners average 76 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":335,"value":302,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:35 (fast: 5:02)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1260,"desc":"Best trade window at 21:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"XinZhao","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":313,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":313,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":313,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":313,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.8,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.7,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-36.0,-76.0,-75.0,-127.0,-77.0,-61.0,-54.0,-8.0,65.0,-46.0,-3.0,-126.0,-216.0,-229.0,-417.0,-463.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":61.9,"n_if_ahead_10":155,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":60,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (60% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-463,"desc":"Their spike: -463g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":325,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:25 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Garen","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":301,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":301,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":301,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":54,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":25,"max_points":30,"sample_size":301,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":18,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":11.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":41.6,"upper":52.8},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.4},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,33.0,37.0,67.0,109.0,106.0,72.0,140.0,149.0,127.0,147.0,123.0,-198.0,-291.5,-462.0,-951.5,-1511.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.0,"n_if_ahead_10":179,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":55,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (55% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1511,"desc":"Their spike: -1511g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":307,"value":299,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:07 (fast: 4:59)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Neeko","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":412,"confidence":{"tier":"trusted","label":"Trusted","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance.","sample_size":412,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"trusted","label":"Trusted","sample_size":412,"claim_policy":"ranking_ok","description":"300+ games. Enough to lean on for matchup guidance."},"evidence_score":{"score":56,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":26,"max_points":30,"sample_size":412,"grade":"trusted"},"interval":{"points":19,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":9.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.5},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":47.1,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":47.1,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":42.3,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[14.0,14.0,-1.0,-17.5,-49.0,-48.0,-75.0,-62.0,-128.0,-144.5,-177.5,-148.0,-215.0,-140.0,-346.0,8.0,140.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":55.8,"n_if_ahead_10":181,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"skill_matchup","desc":"Skill matchup - small edges compound"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":65,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (65% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-346,"desc":"Their spike: -346g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Karthus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":111,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":111,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":111,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":41,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":111,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":10,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":18.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.7},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.8,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.8,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":37.8,"upper":56.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-35.0,-69.0,-80.0,-108.0,-102.0,-81.0,-132.0,-97.0,-50.0,134.0,91.0,-104.0,-217.5,-142.0,-260.5,-325.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.1,"n_if_ahead_10":52,"insights":[{"type":"danger_window","time":360,"end_time":480,"value":34,"desc":"Most early deaths land 6:00-8:00 (34% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-325,"desc":"Their spike: -325g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":322,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:22 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Caitlyn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":92,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":92,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":92,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":39,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":92,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":8,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":20.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":3.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.9,"upper":56.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-43.0,-87.0,-151.0,-228.0,-255.0,-301.5,-305.5,-292.5,-296.0,-557.5,-581.0,-548.5,-754.0,-414.0,-999.5,-559.0,-335.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":72.4,"n_if_ahead_10":29,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":240,"value":36,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-4:00 (36% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-999,"desc":"Their spike: -999g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":301,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:01)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"KogMaw","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":200,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":200,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":200,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":49,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":23,"max_points":30,"sample_size":200,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":15,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":13.7},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":4.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":46.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":46.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.2,"upper":52.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.8,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-13.5,-35.0,-74.5,-92.5,-164.5,-129.0,-145.5,-153.0,-140.0,-147.5,-135.0,-154.0,-273.0,-248.5,-363.0,-622.0,-737.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":52.9,"n_if_ahead_10":85,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":72,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (72% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-737,"desc":"Their spike: -737g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":303,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:03)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ambessa","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":227,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":227,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":227,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":51,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":227,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.2},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":39.0,"upper":51.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":46.2,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.8},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[20.0,20.0,5.0,-32.0,-21.0,-72.0,-51.0,-121.0,-94.0,-142.0,-181.0,-210.0,-468.5,-421.0,-430.0,-493.0,-420.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":56.9,"n_if_ahead_10":102,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":73,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (73% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-493,"desc":"Their spike: -493g at 27:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":327,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:27 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Ornn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":53,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":53,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":53,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":30,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":17,"max_points":30,"sample_size":53,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":2,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":25.8},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":5.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":45.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":45.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.7,"upper":58.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.6,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.3},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[15.0,21.0,54.0,38.0,-7.0,76.0,160.0,193.0,233.0,569.0,576.0,738.0,839.0,1247.0,1373.5,1555.0,2015.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":51.3,"n_if_ahead_10":39,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"late_game","desc":"Late game power - scale to 18+ min for advantage"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":67,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (67% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":1800,"value":2015,"desc":"Your spike: +2015g at 30:00"},{"type":"win_condition","time":1080,"desc":"Farm to 18+ min - your advantage grows over time"},{"type":"level_timing","time":305,"value":298,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:05 (fast: 4:58)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":1800,"desc":"Best trade window at 30:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Quinn","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":261,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":261,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":261,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":64,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":261,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":17,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.0},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":6.1},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":44.4,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":44.4,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":38.5,"upper":50.5},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":45.3,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":0.9},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-14.0,-14.0,-43.0,-37.0,-32.0,-65.0,-77.0,-45.0,-56.0,-122.5,-172.0,-224.0,-403.5,-599.0,-688.0,-779.5,-1047.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.5,"n_if_ahead_10":120,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":70,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (70% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1800,"value":-1047,"desc":"Their spike: -1047g at 30:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":319,"value":304,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:19 (fast: 5:04)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Singed","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":146,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":146,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":146,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":46,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":22,"max_points":30,"sample_size":146,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":13,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":15.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.4},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":43.2,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":43.2,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":35.4,"upper":51.3},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.7},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-28.0,29.5,67.0,57.0,50.0,87.0,128.5,195.5,259.5,363.5,426.0,567.0,420.0,288.0,288.0,432.0,503.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":48.9,"n_if_ahead_10":94,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"favorable","desc":"Favorable matchup - you're ahead most of the game"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":56,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (56% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"power_spike","time":900,"value":567,"desc":"Your spike: +567g at 15:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":312,"value":300,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:12 (fast: 5:00)"},{"type":"trade_window","time":900,"desc":"Best trade window at 15:00 - you have stat advantage"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Varus","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":246,"confidence":{"tier":"solid","label":"Solid","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters.","sample_size":246,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"solid","label":"Solid","sample_size":246,"claim_policy":"recommendation_ok","description":"100+ games. A usable read; the interval still matters."},"evidence_score":{"score":63,"grade":"tentative","label":"Tentative evidence score","claim_policy":"lean_only","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":24,"max_points":30,"sample_size":246,"grade":"solid"},"interval":{"points":16,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":12.2},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":7.9},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.7,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.7,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":36.7,"upper":48.9},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":1.2},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-20.5,-28.5,-89.5,-152.0,-116.0,-173.0,-162.5,-135.0,-131.5,-150.0,-249.0,-247.0,-399.0,-607.0,-794.0,-664.5,-721.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":57.1,"n_if_ahead_10":105,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":69,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (69% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1440,"value":-794,"desc":"Their spike: -794g at 24:00"},{"type":"level_timing","time":323,"value":306,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:23 (fast: 5:06)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"JarvanIV","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":26,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":26,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":26,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":25,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":14,"max_points":30,"sample_size":26,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":35.6},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":25.5,"upper":61.1},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":47.4,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":5.1},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[-2.0,10.5,-19.5,46.5,87.0,78.0,73.0,-25.0,-41.0,-177.5,-68.5,-43.0,40.0,-276.0,-497.0,-750.0,-1699.5],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":69.2,"n_if_ahead_10":13,"insights":[]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Kled","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":97,"confidence":{"tier":"small","label":"Small sample","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal.","sample_size":97,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":false},"evidence":{"grade":"small","label":"Small sample","sample_size":97,"claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"40+ games. Show with its interval; treat as a wide signal."},"evidence_score":{"score":40,"grade":"exploratory","label":"Exploratory evidence score","claim_policy":"wide_interval","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":20,"max_points":30,"sample_size":97,"grade":"small"},"interval":{"points":9,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":19.3},"normalized_edge":{"points":8,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":8.3},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":42.3,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":42.3,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":32.9,"upper":52.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"coinflip","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":44.9,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":2.6},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[28.0,21.0,-72.0,-88.0,-184.0,-183.0,-213.0,-103.0,-174.0,-283.0,-388.0,-474.0,-587.0,-325.0,-594.0,-1181.0,-752.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":50.0,"n_if_ahead_10":40,"insights":[{"type":"archetype","archetype":"unfavorable","desc":"Unfavorable matchup - minimize losses, outplay to win"},{"type":"danger_window","time":120,"end_time":360,"value":75,"desc":"Most early deaths land 2:00-6:00 (75% of them). Play safe there."},{"type":"enemy_spike","time":1620,"value":-1181,"desc":"Their spike: -1181g at 27:00"},{"type":"cs_benchmark","time":600,"value":78,"desc":"Winners average 78 CS at 10:00 (losers: 70)"},{"type":"level_timing","time":333,"value":308,"desc":"Hit 6 by 5:33 (fast: 5:08)"}]},{"champion":"Ahri","enemy":"Illaoi","role":"MIDDLE","tier_group":"all","sample_size":29,"confidence":{"tier":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck.","sample_size":29,"min_small_sample":40,"min_solid_sample":100,"min_trusted_sample":300,"show_warning":true},"evidence":{"grade":"coinflip","label":"Too few games","sample_size":29,"claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Under 40 games. Not enough to tell an edge from luck."},"evidence_score":{"score":38,"grade":"insufficient","label":"Too few games","claim_policy":"hide_directional_claim","description":"Composite evidence score using sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","components":{"sample":{"points":15,"max_points":30,"sample_size":29,"grade":"coinflip"},"interval":{"points":0,"max_points":25,"ci95_width_pp":31.9},"normalized_edge":{"points":20,"max_points":20,"baseline_win_rate":50.6,"edge_pp":19.6},"freshness":{"points":3,"max_points":15,"status":"stale"},"patch_mix":{"points":0,"max_points":10,"dominant_or_latest_share":0.115},"lane_purity":{"points":null,"max_points":10,"status":"not_measured","share":null}}},"win_rate":31.0,"win_rate_summary":{"raw":31.0,"ci95":{"method":"wilson","level":0.95,"lower":17.3,"upper":49.2},"noise_flag":{"tier":"thin","side":null,"margin_pp":null},"shrunk":{"estimate":43.0,"prior_strength":50.0,"target":50.0,"regressed_pp":12.0},"note":"Observed association from ranked match data, not a causal counter guarantee."},"gold_diff_curve":[16.0,35.0,85.0,47.0,99.0,135.0,117.0,112.0,-79.0,289.0,-10.0,-176.0,-258.5,-583.0,-12.5,-190.0,37.0],"win_rate_if_ahead_10":42.9,"n_if_ahead_10":14,"insights":[]}],"data_freshness":{"curves":{"exists":true,"updated_utc":"2026-08-07T12:45:13+00:00","age_days":77.7,"size_mb":299.4},"normalized":{"exists":false},"status":"stale","warning":"Published matchup curves are 77.7 days old; refresh before making current-patch claims.","public_min_sample":25,"latest_patch":"16.12","latest_patch_matches":113424,"latest_patch_share":0.112,"dominant_patch":"15.24","dominant_patch_matches":116877,"dominant_patch_share":0.1154,"corpus_matches":1012452,"top_patches":[{"patch":"15.24","matches":116877,"share":0.1154},{"patch":"16.12","matches":113424,"share":0.112},{"patch":"16.11","matches":100233,"share":0.099},{"patch":"16.1","matches":96246,"share":0.0951},{"patch":"16.10","matches":77420,"share":0.0765},{"patch":"16.9","matches":58783,"share":0.0581},{"patch":"16.8","matches":48503,"share":0.0479},{"patch":"16.7","matches":47011,"share":0.0464},{"patch":"16.6","matches":43451,"share":0.0429},{"patch":"16.5","matches":39578,"share":0.0391}]},"confidence_policy":{"coinflip":{"min":0,"max":39,"label":"Too few games"},"small":{"min":40,"max":99,"label":"Small sample"},"solid":{"min":100,"max":299,"label":"Solid"},"trusted":{"min":300,"max":null,"label":"Trusted"},"min_edge_sample":40,"evidence_score":{"description":"0-100 composite score from sample size, Wilson interval width, champion-baseline edge, freshness, and patch concentration.","strong":{"min":80,"label":"Strong evidence score"},"credible":{"min":65,"label":"Credible evidence score"},"tentative":{"min":45,"label":"Tentative evidence score"},"exploratory":{"min":25,"label":"Exploratory evidence score"},"insufficient":{"min":0,"label":"Insufficient evidence score"}},"interval_method":"wilson","causal_note":"Matchup and conditional win rates are observed associations, not proof that the champion or game state caused the result."}}